Transcript TN Datta - NCAER : Agriculture Outlook India

Dairying in India
A medium-term Outlook
TN Datta
(General Manager)
National Dairy Development Board (NDDB)
Indian dairying is based
on the ‘low input - low
output’ model
• More than 80 percent of
India’s farmers are marginal or
small.
• They own almost 60 percent
of the female bovines with only
30 percent of farm land.
• About 75 percent of the animal
owners own 1-3 animals. Only
8 percent of households have
herd size in excess of 4
animals.
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Dairying in India is more than a business
• Involves lakhs of small farmers,
each with 1-3 animals
• Milk is the largest contributor to
Agriculture GDP
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Value of milk output is Rs. 350
thousand Cr. in 2012-13
(Paddy - Rs. 182 thousand Cr.
& wheat - Rs.131 thousand Cr.)
Contribution close to 70% of the
output from livestock
• While the share of agriculture is
waning in GDP, the same for
Livestock is almost constant
• Offers relatively stable stream of
round the year income vis-a-vis
crop production, which is
weather dependent
Value of output of milk group in India (₹ Crore)
Source: National Accounts Statistics, CSO, GoI
Dairying as a livelihood in India
• Generates 5-6% of total rural
employment
• Major source of rural
employment, especially
women employment
• Major source of subsidiary
income
• Supports 20-30% of rural
household income
• Ensures inclusive growth for
rural households
Female bovine ownership in rural areas
Source: Land and Livestock Survey, 59th Round, NSSO, 2002-03
Size of herd owned in rural milieu
Source: Land and Livestock Survey, 59th Round, NSSO, 2002-03
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Milk production & per capita availability
Source: Department of AHD&F, GoI
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Pattern in milk consumption
Domestic milk production
362 million kg/ day*
Milk consumed/ used
in production areas itself
Surplus milk sold from
production areas
167 million kg/day ~ 46%
196 million kg/day ~ 54%
Surplus handled by:
Unorganised Sector
Organised Sector
(Coop + Private+)
130 million kg/ day
(33 +33) million kg/ day
~ 66% of surplus
~ 34% of surplus
Based on figures for 2012-13 of 132.4 million tons
+Surplus handled by organised private sector is an estimate
% Household reported milk consumption
Source: Consumer Expenditure Surveys, NSSO, GoI
Importance of milk in food basket
Source: Consumer Expenditure Surveys, NSSO, GoI
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Factors influencing milk demand
Rising income
Urbanization
Demand
Drivers
Changing food
habits
Rising milk
consuming
population
Export
opportunities
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Milk demand
Publications by different researchers and
analysts indicate high projected demand for
milk in the years to follow.
Emerging trends indicate that milk demand
is likely to be in the range of 200 to 210
million tonnes in 2021-22.
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Change in WPI (%)
Year
20132014
20122013
20112012
20102011
20092010
20082009
Food
12.8
9.9
7.3
15.6
15.3
9.1
Foodgrain
9.1
14.6
3.6
4.9
14.5
11.0
Milk
6.0
7.2
10.3
20.1
18.8
7.6
Veg. & fruits
23.1
8.3
6.5
16.4
9.6
8.2
Egg, Fish &Meat
12.8
14.1
12.7
25.5
20.8
7.7
6.0
7.4
8.9
9.6
3.8
8.1
All Commodities
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Trade in dairy commodity
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Milk supply and demand
Projected milk supply and demand
scenario leaves a gap of about 10-20
million tonnes by 2021-22
To bridge this gap, one of the initiatives
taken by GoI and NDDB is National
Dairy Plan (NDP) I – A project funded
by the World Bank
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Why NDP I ?
• The major source of
growth in milk
production is increase
in animal numbers
• Due to limited
availability of
resources like land,
water, feed & fodder;
growth in milk
production may not
sustain in longer run
• Therefore, increasing
the productivity levels
of animals is need of
the hour
In-milk
animals
51%
In-milk
yield
39%
Interaction
effect
10%
Growth in milk production during
2002/03 to 2012/13
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National Dairy Plan
NDP, with a 15 year horizon, envisaged
the following objective:
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Meet the projected national demand of milk through
domestic sources (not imports) by increasing
production at the pace required through productivity
enhancement, and
Strengthen/expand infrastructure for milk
procurement, processing and marketing.
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National Dairy Plan Phase I
To begin with, the World Bank agreed to support Phase I of
NDP for a 6 year period (2012-13 to 2017-18) with the
following Project Development Objective:
To help increase productivity of milch animals and thereby
increase milk production to meet the rapidly growing
demand for milk.
To help provide rural milk producers with greater access to
the organised milk-processing sector.
These objectives to be pursued through focussed scientific &
systematic processes in provision of technical inputs supported by
appropriate policy and regulatory measures.
Project Components
PRODUCTIVITY ENHANCEMENT
a) Production of high genetic merit (HGM) bulls
b) Strengthening existing semen stations / starting new stations
c) Setting up a pilot model for viable doorstep AI delivery services
d) Improving nutrition of milch animals through Ration Balancing
and Fodder Development programme
VILLAGE BASED MILK PROCUREMENT SYSTEMS
a) Milk weighing, testing and collection
b) Milk cooling
c) Support for creating institutional structure
d) Training
Thank You
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