Transcript Lessons from the European Union

Lessons from the European Union
Linda Green
URI Watershed Watch
November 16, 2007
presented with permission…
A Graphical Presentation of
Water Quality Data in Time and
Space
Enhancing the States’ Lake Management
Programs: Interpreting Lake Quality Data for
Diverse Audiences
April, 2007; Chicago, IL
Dr Peter G Stoks
RIWA/IAWR
[email protected]
Umbrella organization
of 3 Associations
RIWA:
Netherlands
ARW:
lower Germany
AWBR: upstream Germany,
Switzerland
Mission:
Source water quality should
allow drinking water production
using simple treatment only!
120 utilities
30 million consumers
The old way to publish our data
Lobith (860) 0230 Chloride mg/l
0230 Chloride mg/l
500
500
250
250
450
450
400
400
200
200
350
300
350
150
150
250
200
300
250
100
100
150
200
150
50
50
100
100
50
50
0
0
AUL
SHS
BAS
KAH
BIE
MAK
KOB
KOL
DFL
DBL
WIT
WES
LOB
NGN
NSL
AND
0
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20
0
Management is usually not too bright…
…and has the attention span of a hamster
So, this does not work anymore
(if it ever really did…)
sp
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
AND
par
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
0270
year
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
mean
min
max
p10
p25
p50
p75
p90
n
0.368138
0.015
1.0871
0.015 0.073725 0.24845
0.629 0.91549
0.259278
0.015
1.7859
0.015
0.015
0.0776
0.3106 0.83858
0.164878
0.015
1.0094
0.015
0.0427
0.1009
0.2213
0.396
0.216165
0.015
1.2424
0.015
0.0388
0.132 0.229025
0.6981
0.170089
0.015
0.9861
0.015
0.0311 0.09705 0.20385 0.47986
0.10901
0.015
0.8075
0.015
0.015
0.0621
0.1398 0.26947
0.107253
0.015
0.6678
0.015
0.015
0.0388
0.1398
0.2873
0.115835
0.015
0.6678
0.015
0.015
0.06
0.14 0.36808
0.106415
0.015
0.58
0.015
0.015
0.06
0.14
0.322
0.16
0.015
1.2
0.015
0.04
0.1
0.2
0.386
0.150745
0.015
0.67
0.015
0.03
0.1
0.22
0.39
0.182604
0.015
0.66
0.03
0.06
0.13
0.2575
0.474
0.134038
0.015
0.57
0.04
0.06
0.105
0.1875
0.271
0.136019
0.015
0.5
0.015
0.05
0.1
0.18
0.306
0.159757
0.015
0.84
0.015
0.04
0.12
0.25
0.328
0.149381
0.015
0.71
0.015
0.03
0.13
0.22
0.336
0.118
0.015
0.39
0.015
0.03
0.11
0.16
0.277
0.094703
0.015
0.35
0.015
0.04
0.07
0.14
0.208
0.111029
0.015
0.4
0.015
0.03
0.1
0.15
0.227
0.06597
0.015
0.563
0.015
0.015
0.03
0.083
0.169
0.108431
0.015
0.68
0.015
0.04
0.08
0.16
0.218
0.086115
0.015
0.7
0.015 0.01875
0.045
0.1
0.207
0.080922
0.015
0.24
0.015
0.03
0.06
0.13
0.178
0.063333
0.015
0.321
0.015
0.015
0.04
0.09
0.147
0.082
0.015
0.26
0.015
0.015
0.0595 0.13375
0.18
0.070754
0.015
0.381
0.015
0.015
0.06
0.097
0.1416
0.092812
0.015
0.22
0.015
0.0425
0.096
0.1375
0.1731
0.086357
0.015
0.2
0.015 0.02925
0.0685
0.145
0.195
0.060833
0.01
0.18
0.01
0.01
0.04
0.1075
0.168
0.054615
0.01
0.19
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.11
0.17
oag
50
51
49
40
46
50
49
51
53
43
47
48
52
103
103
113
100
101
102
100
51
52
51
102
64
65
16
14
12
13
pniawr
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.02
30
19
17
15
12
8
7
8
8
10
13
15
9
22
33
32
12
10
13
4
6
5
3
4
4
2
1
0
0
0
pnamvb pnkrw
30
-9999
19
-9999
17
-9999
15
-9999
12
-9999
8
-9999
7
-9999
8
-9999
8
-9999
10
-9999
13
-9999
15
-9999
9
-9999
22
-9999
33
-9999
32
-9999
12
-9999
10
-9999
13
-9999
4
-9999
6
-9999
5
-9999
3
-9999
4
-9999
4
-9999
2
-9999
1
-9999
0
-9999
0
-9999
0
-9999
tr95
false
false
false
false
false
false
true
true
false
false
false
true
false
false
false
false
false
false
false
true
false
false
false
false
false
false
false
false
false
false
tr95w
0
0
0
0
-0.02176
-0.01926
-0.02004
-0.0819
-0.01713
0.011582
0.020775
0.033502
0.016987
-0.00451
-0.01785
-0.01476
-0.005
-0.0085
-0.00875
-0.01425
-0.0045
-0.0065
-0.005
-0.002
-0.00475
-3.1E-08
0.0035
0.008501
-0.00125
-0.00498
tr80
false
false
false
false
false
true
true
true
false
true
true
true
false
false
false
false
false
false
false
true
false
false
false
false
false
false
false
true
false
false
tr80w
0
0
0
0
-0.02176
-0.01926
-0.02004
-0.07326
-0.01399
0.01175
0.024748
0.033502
0.016987
-0.00451
-0.01651
-0.01476
-0.005
-0.0085
-0.00875
-0.01425
-0.0045
-0.0065
-0.005
-0.002
-0.00475
-3.1E-08
0.0035
0.008501
-0.00125
-0.00605
fiawr
famvb
fkrw
5.4355
5.4355
8.9295
8.9295
5.047
5.047
6.212
6.212
4.9305
4.9305
4.0375
4.0375
3.339
3.339
3.339
3.339
2.9
2.9
6
6
3.35
3.35
3.3
3.3
2.85
2.85
2.5
2.5
4.2
4.2
3.55
3.55
1.95
1.95
1.75
1.75
2
2
2.815
2.815
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
1.2
1.2
1.605
1.605
1.3
1.3
1.905
1.905
1.1
1.1
1
1
0.9
0.9
0.95
0.95
Need for simple WQ visualization
pal80
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
pal95
roneve
roneve
roneve
roneve
roneve
roneve
rodove
rodove
roneve
roneve
roneve
roupve
roneve
roneve
roneve
roneve
roneve
roneve
roneve
rodove
roneve
roneve
roneve
roneve
roneve
roneve
ronewe
genewe
genewe
genewe
Solution:
Color palettes combining locations and
variables
• allows for basinwide overview of multiple variables
• color indicates WQ development over time
–WQ improvement or deterioration at a glance
• area coverage indicates accuracy of statements
–The less data, the less area coverage
Combining compliance ratio and trend
yields Status
Good status:
- compliance ratio “good” and trend stable
- compliance ratio “moderate” and trend improving
Bad status:
- compliance ratio “bad” and trend stable
- compliance ratio “moderate” and trend deteriorating
Moderate status:
- all other combinations
Compliance testing based on
maximum values
(or other criteria)
above standard
= non-compliance
(except for O2)
between 0.8 x standard
and standard
= OK but look out!
below 0.8 x standard
= compliance
Compliance ratio
rmax=
max value of variable
divided by
its WQstandard (or objective)
r max
interpretation
< 0.8
0.8 - 1.0
> 1.0
good
moderate
bad
color
Combined with trend detection
Trend detection based on 5
year period
- commercially available STAT
package
- using parametric as well
as non parametric statistics
- 13 data points / year minimum,
reduced to quarterly avg
Trend
determined using a STAT-package (modified linear
regression model, 95% conf interval)
trend
negative
none
positive
interpretation
improvement
stable
deterioration
color
Combined with quantity of data
Quantity
n ≥ 20
20 > n ≥ 10
n < 10
Trend detection
Timeseries
bigger
timescale
advanced
linear
regression
yearly
timescale
output
parametric
n
normal
residuals
n
y
seasonal
n
autocor.
residuals
y
n
n >=20
y
y
autocor.
y
y
n
Mann-Kendall
seasonal
autocor.
n
Mann-Kendall
seasonal & autocorrelation
trend
y
output
n
Mann-Kendall
non
parametric
Trend detection
Or (quarterly data)
+ b1*Q1 + linear
b2*Q2regression
+ b3*Q3( + b4*Q4)
Y= a + bx advanced
intercept
trend component
seasonal component
model residue
autoregressive component
Software: Trendanalist
by ICASTAT
Put simply…create a pictogram
Compliance
Trend
above standard
uptrend
0.8-1.0 of standard
downtrend
below 0.8 of standard
no trend or
not detectable
Quantity
n ≥ 20
20 > n ≥ 10
n < 10
Used in annual reports
Also applicable at technical level
• plotting
a single WQ variable at different locations
OR
• plotting different (related) WQ variables at same
location over time
gives info on reliability of data
→ odd values easily detected
What it looks like
Downstream
Ammonia in the Rhine 1972 – 2004
year
Standard violations and trends can be
presented
- for a single variable at different locations over time
- for several variables at a fixed location over time
Easily understood by non-expert decision
makers
Also: triggers WQ analist about curious
events
( with software built into database management system)
In summary
Compliance
Trend
above standard
uptrend
0.8-1.0 of standard
downtrend
below 0.8 of standard
no trend or
not detectable
Quantity
n ≥ 20
20 > n ≥ 10
n < 10
Lessons from the European Union
Compliance
Trend
above standard
uptrend
0.8-1.0 of standard
downtrend
below 0.8 of standard
no trend or
not detectable
Quantity
n ≥ 20
20 > n ≥ 10
n < 10
Dr Peter G Stoks
Assn of Rhine Water
Works
RIWA/IAWR
[email protected]