Transcript MEETING AGENDA

CONDUCTING POLITICAL ECONOMY
ANALYSIS
Mrs. Asiyati Lorraine Chiweza (PhD, MPA, BsocSc)
Senior Lecturer
Chancellor College, University of Malawi
Department of Political and Administrative Studies
P.O Box 280, ZOMBA
E-mail: [email protected]
27 February, 2013, Wamkulu Palace, LILONGWE
Outline of the Presentation
•
•
•
•
Levels of Political Economy Analysis (PEA)
Different Frameworks for Country level PEA
Conducting Problem/project level PEA
Group work
Levels of Political Economy Analysis
Global level
Country
level
Sector
level
Problem
driven/
Project
level
PEA can be done at various levels
• Country level
– Approaches that aim to analyse and influence the structures, institutions,
processes and actors at the country-level e.g. Drivers of Change.
– to enhance general sensitivity to country context and understanding of the
broad political-economy environment.
– This can be useful to inform country planning processes but also an overview
to specific projects
• Sector level– What are the political, economic and social forces that drive or block policy
change in specific sectors? e.g. water, agriculture, education, health
– The aim is to better understand and more effectively influence the political,
economic and social structures, institutions, processes and actors
determining the dynamics of sector reforms.
– to identify specific barriers and opportunities within particular sectors
• Project level
– geared to understanding a particular problem at the project level, or in
relation to specific policy issue so that appropriate strategies can be taken.
Frameworks for PEA
• There are many frameworks for PEA
– These include DFID’s Drivers of Change (DoC) and Politics of
Development (PoD) framework; SIDA’s Power Analysis (PA); the Dutch
government’s Strategic Governance and Corruption Analysis (SGACA);
and the World Bank’s Problem Driven Governance and Political Economy
Analysis (PDGPEA)
– All these frameworks except PDGPEA focus predominantly at macro-level
PEA
– These frameworks focus essentially on a similar set of issues although
they have different areas of emphasis
• Structural factors
– Conditions that influence the state and political system,
including geographic, historical, economic, social and
characteristics of the community in question
– Not readily influenced, either because of the time scale
needed, or because they are determined outside the country
– Provide the foundational elements of the context in which
analysis must be grounded and often include systematic
constraints on what is possible in a given context
• Institutions
– Rules of the game which include both formal and informal rules that
govern behaviour
– Tend to be more susceptible to change in the medium term than
structural factors
• Actors/stakeholders
– Individuals or organizations that are most relevant to the issue in
question
– Include individuals or organizations that support reform as well as
those who oppose it; individuals or organizations that engage with
the issue as well as those who ignore it; and individuals or
organizations who benefit from potential reforms and those whom it
cost
– Vary in the ability to exercise agency, in large part due to the power
(economic, social and political) they hold
• Incentives
– Rewards and punishments that are perceived by individuals to be
related to their actions and those of others
– Incentive structures may be affected by the way specific events unfold
within processes of change
Frameworks for PEA Cont’d
• Here and now events
– Examines the conduct of day-to-day politics, and the
way this is shaped by the rules of the game as well as
more contingent events.
• These areas of common interest help to assess opportunities for
change by distinguishing between foundational factors that are very
slow to change, rules of the game which may be sticky but more
susceptible to change over the medium term, and short term factors
that may offer opportunities for change
How to do PEA? Cont’d
Variable/Concept
Description
Structural variables
• Features that affect the political economy of the country, tend
to change slowly overtime and are beyond the direct control of
stakeholders
Institutional variables
• Related to the rules of the game including formal and informal
institutions
Actors/stakeholders
•Identifying and mapping stakeholders (both individuals and
organized groups) and their relative influences, power relations,
and plans
Winners and losers and
veto players
• Mapping stakeholders and their influence and positions in
proposed reforms
•Identifying who stands to win or lose from reforms; how they
can impede, block or promote reforms; and what means they
might use
How to do PEA? Cont’d
Variable/Concept
Description
Historical legacies
•Because historical legacies can shape current dynamics
profoundly, summarize key trends, processes and policies,
especially in relation to the project/problem being assessed
•History is also linked to path dependency, that is, how previous
policy choices and investments in organizational capabilities have
lasting effects on subsequent situations and the range of policy
options available
Rents
•How economic rents emerge and how they shape the incentives
for stakeholders/actors; and how the sources and allocation of
rents evolve and shift over time
Patronage networks,
clientelism and
neopatrimonialism
•Terms used to describe situations in which formal and informal
institutions strongly diverge, and informal rules are subversive of
formal rules
•These concepts matter in multiple ways including mapping the
existence of patterns of personal loyalty and rent distribution
How to do PEA?
• Given the nature of Tilitonse, the WB PEA
framework appears to offer a great deal of utility
in linking PEA to concrete practical action.
• It offers quite elaborate steps for conducting PEA
summarized in the table below, and it is applicable
at both sector and problem levels of analysis
WB PEA Framework
Steps
Diagnosis
Status/Action
What are the challenges?
Problem definition: that is
evidence of poor outcomes to
which PE issues appear to
contribute
e. g. Repeated failure to
implement sector reforms
Institutional/governance
arrangements and capacities
• What are the key institutional
arrangements?
•Are they capable, effective and
efficient?
Mapping of:
• Relevant institutions
•Laws and regulations
• Policy processes (formal and
informal rules of the game)
•Analysis of corruption
Political economy drivers
• Why are things this way?
•Why are policies or institutional
arrangements not being
improved?
Analysis of:
• Stakeholders, incentives
•Rents and rent distribution
•Historical legacies and earlier
reform experiences
What can be done?
• What actions can be
proposed?
• Is the project going to work
within the existing reform space
and/or seek to expand it
Recommendations on:
•Timing, tailoring and
sequencing of project and sector
work
•Communication and
dissemination strategies
How to do PEA?
• Regardless of the level at which PEA is conducted,
the following questions, grouped thematically, are
critical:
Institutional Arrangements
• What are the laws, policies driving the problem identified.
• What are the informal institutions and how do they interact to
produce the given problem.
• What are the gaps and challenges related to the laws, policy, and
institutional frameworks?
• What change is required to address the challenges identified?
 Reform Drivers
 Stakeholder Analysis:
• Identification of stakeholders and their roles and Responsibilities
– Who are the key stakeholders?
– What are the formal/informal roles and mandates of different players?
– What is the balance between central/local authorities in the provision
of services
• Power Relations
– To what extent is power vested in the hands of specific individuals,
groups or organizations?
– How do different interest groups outside government seek to
influence policy?
 Historical Legacies
– What is the history of the sector, including previous reform initiatives?
– How does this influence current stakeholders?
 Implementation Issues
– Are decisions implemented once made or are decisions made at
all?
– What is the institutional framework for implementation?
– What are the key implementation bottlenecks in the system?
– Is failure to implement due to lack of capacity or other political
economy reasons?
 What is the potential for reform regarding the selected
issue
– Who are likely to be the winners and losers from particular
reforms?
– Are there any key reform champions within the sector?
– Who is likely to resist reforms and why?
– Are there ‘second best’ reforms which might overcome this
opposition?
Strategies for PEA
 Analysis
– Accurate identification of what the potential obstacles
might be
– Assessment of commitment to reform by different
stakeholders particularly government since it is the prime
mover of policy and institutional change
– Identification of potential institutional champions within
the public, CSO, and private sectors that can drive and
manage the reform process
– Understanding of institutional drivers, incentive structures,
legal tradition, history of policy making, cultural factors
and other local conditions that are to have a bearing on
the reform effort
– Identifying winners and losers under reforms which is
important for purposes of gauging how successful the
reform process might be
Strategies for PEA Cont’d
 Building Coalitions
– Reforms can only succeed if major actors are able to work together
in order to overcome collective action problems
– Positive inducements include bringing together key players such
as the government, the donor community, the private sector and
civil society so that they can appreciate the benefits of working
together
– Working closely with key players to understand their reluctance to
change and to persuade them of the wider benefits of economic
development
– Shared interests have to be identified and written into a common
agenda such as the improvement of the economy, better taxation,
education or security issues
– Every society has its own dynamics and the challenge is to support
those that stimulate positive change
Strategies for PEA Cont’d
 Stakeholder Management and Dialogue
– Imperative because reforms (institutional and policy change) are
primarily a very political matter
– Critical since the management of different stakeholder groups is a
vital tool to increase momentum for reform
– Aim is not to build broad consensus for including both winners and
losers but to build pro-reform coalitions that can move the process
forward.
 Timing and Phasing of Reforms
– Sequencing of reforms can be critical to the chances of success
– Getting the timing and phasing of reforms correctly can help building
support for the reform process and to win over potential opponents
– PEA should be tailored to the budget as well as time constraints
LADIES & GENTLEMEN
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!