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Chronic Rural Poverty and Resilience: Some Reflections and A Research Agenda Christopher B. Barrett Cornell University Monash University Workshop on “Ecologists and Economists: scope for collaboration?” March 13, 2013 Motivation Reducing poverty/hunger & conserving scarce natural resources (biodiversity, water, forest, etc.) are global challenges of the highest order. These challenges are intrinsically linked: - most (esp. intense/chronic) poverty/hunger occurs in rural areas, bidirectional causality, and mutual causation by broader political economy forces. Yet most policy/research focuses on just one or the other of these at a time. Background Dev’t/ag economist w/ past and ongoing work on poverty, food security & environmental stress Various applications: (1) Sustainable agricultural intensification (soil nutrients, water mgmt – Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Uganda) (2) Rangelands in east Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya) (3) Biodiversity conservation & poverty (2011 PNAS, Cameroon, Kenya, Madagascar, Tanzania, Thailand) (4) Deforestation (Indonesia, Madagascar, Morocco) Research priorities What we understand least well: - Welfare dynamics and their relationship to ecosystem dynamics - Especially with stochasticity added in … Shocks that disrupt lives and livelihoods - the most frequent cause of descents into poverty. Uninsured risk of catastrophic loss discourage pursuit of high return/riskier livelihoods … a key reason for poverty traps. Research priorities Hence current development and humanitarian communities’ fascination with “resilience”: 1) Risk perceived increasing in both frequency and intensity 2) Recurring crises lay bare the longstanding difficulty of reconciling humanitarian response to disasters with longer-term development efforts. 3) Build (perhaps?) on ecological theories of resilience But we lack a theory-measurement-and-evidence-based understanding of what resilience is with respect to poverty and hunger, how to measure it, and how to effectively promote it so as to reduce chronic poverty and hunger. Big opportunity for ecologists - economists Four-pronged strategy Four-pronged strategy • Theory – Build on past work on ecological resilience and poverty traps and its relation to risk. • Measurement – This is the hardest area. What are the right dimensions/methods for measurement? Combine probabilistic quantitative measures and subjective indicators. • Impact evaluation – Once metrics established, then use observational and experimental longitudinal data to evaluate alternative interventions aimed at enhancing resilience of indivs, hhs, communities. • Outreach –Translate findings into clear, actionable guidance to donors, firms, gov’ts and NGOs. Summary Resilience is a popular buzzword now. But little precision in its use, either theoretically or empirically. This topic offers a prime opportunity for ecologists and economists to learn from one another: facilitate rigorous, precise use of the concept to help identify how best to reduce chronic poverty and hunger and to safeguard ecosystems vulnerable to anthropogenic disruptions. This will require advances in theory, measurement and empirical work in many different contexts and over time. Much to do in all of these areas … a massive research, teaching and outreach agenda. Thank you Thank you for your time, interest and comments!