Transcript Slide 1
Global crises in a resourceconstrained, multipolar world John Humphrey Globalisation Team Outline 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Looming, long-term crises New powers and multipolarity Equity Timeframes Governance But food security is only part of a ‘Perfect Storm’ of global events Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA) Energy 1. Increasing population 2. Increasing levels of urbanisation 3. The rightful goal to alleviate poverty 4. Climate Change Climate Change Food Increased demand 50% by 2030 (FAO) John Beddington Chief Scientific Advisor UK Government Water Increased demand 30% by 2030 (IFPRI) GDP Projections, 2050 50 US $ (Trillions at 2003 Prices) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 China India United States Source: Goldman Sachs, Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050 Japan Germany Distribution of Increase in Glohbal GDP, 1990-2005, by Region/Country (PPP, %) USA USA China India Rest of Developing Asia Other OECD Japan Other OECD China MENA LAC Rest of Dev Asia ECA India Source: David Dollar, presentation to GDN, Beijing,Jan 2007 Shares of World Trade in Goods and Services 1985-2008 90 84.9 80 Per Cent 70 64.7 60 Non OECD 50 OECD Total 40 35.3 30 20 15.1 10 0 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Financial crisis Accelerates convergence continuing growth in rising powers possible stagnation in Europe Heightens the need for global governance to be more inclusive – G20 not G8 Undermines West’s claim for economic superiority Increases confidence and assertiveness of rising powers Total GHG Emissions, 2000, MtCO2 equivalent 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 United States China EU-25 Russia India Japan Incremental GHG emissions 2004-30 (% of global total) 50 Per Cent 40 30 20 10 0 GHG Emissions, 2000, per capita 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 United States China EU-25 Russia India Japan Cumulative CO2 Emissions, 1900-2005 Million metric tons of CO2 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 United States China EU 25 Russian Federation India Japan •The Observer, Sunday 7 March 2010 How food and water are driving a 21st-century African land grab An Observer investigation reveals how rich countries faced by a global food shortage now farm an area double the size of the UK to guarantee supplies for their citizens A woman tends vegetables at a giant Saudi-financed farm in Ethiopia. ….Nestling below an escarpment of the Rift Valley, the development is far from finished, but the plastic and steel structure already stretches over 20 hectares – the size of 20 football pitches. Time Climate or weather? Long term stresses in relation to acute shocks How much are current volatilities in food and energy prices indicators of long-term trends? 2030 versus today Bringing the future into the present Governance (1) The Beddington strategy defragment – in multiple crises focus on risk and uncertainty place value on the future – foresight Governance (2) Institutions increase “bandwidth” – thicker relations to build trust and understanding (repeat transactions) aggregate actors – not 180 countries Regions? Types? Caucuses? more authoritative knowledge – as in IPCC strengthen G20 a Secretariat, continuity of chairing, more advanced preparation promote organisation of other states, rather than obstruct – cede power to make organisations work focus on fairness rather than power think about penalties for non-cooperators Total Merchandise Trade (% of World Exports) 14% 12% 11.41% 10% 8.89% 8% 8.01% 6% China India 4% US 1.80% 2% 0.52% 1.10% 0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008