Transcript Document
Marine Harvest
Intrafish Seafood Investment Forum
New York - 14 February 2012
Marine Harvest at a glance
2011 Sales breakdown
Turnover USD 2.8bn
Salmon volume 360 thousand tonnes (HOG) 5 000 employees Presence in 21 countries Global market share of ~22% Farmed Atlantic Salmon Leading producer in: Norway Canada (West Coast) Scotland Chile Extensive value adding processing of convenient, healthy, natural and fresh salmon and other species Europe (MH VAP) Americas (USA and Chile) Japan
Harvest volume 2012E (HOG)
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Marine Harvest - Global farming network
Global supply development since 1990
CAGR 10% CAGR 6%
Breakdown of supply development 2007-12
13% 14%
Global supply development
•
Estimated volumes Q4 2011 Q4 2010 Suppliers
Norway Chile Scotland North America Faroe Islands Australia Ireland Other
Sum
Note: Atlantic Salmon (HOG tonnes) 285,400 65,300 42,700 33,500 15,300 8,400 3,500 1,000
455,100
251,400 31,400 36,000 32,200 12,200 9,200 4,700 500
377,600
• •
Compared to Q4 2010 Volume %
34,000 33,900 6,700 1,300 3,100 -800 -1,200 500
77,500
13.5% 108.0% 18.6% 4.0% 25.4% -8.7% -25.5% 100.0%
20.5%
Largest fourth quarter increase since 1993 (40%), and higher than Q3 2011 (19.1%) Large step-up in Chile resulting from aggressive rebuild of the industry Combined with strong growth in Norway, Scotland and the Faroes
12 months comparison Volume %
54,900 83,200 14,200 -6,800 13,000 6.5% 71.4% 11.1% -5.6% 34.3% 2,700 -1,800 600 9.1% -11.3% 46.2%
160,000 12.3%
Source: Kontali • Faroe Island increasing up to new plateau level in 2011 • Decline in Australia and Ireland
Development in reference prices
Reference prices Q4 2011 NOK Change vs Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Market (4)
Norway (1) Chile (2) North America (3) NOK 22.77
NOK 20.70
NOK 13.21
-39.7% -27.6% -24.3% EUR 2.93
USD 3.59
USD 2.29
Change vs Q4 2010
-37.5% -25.5% -22.1%
Notes:
(1) Average superior HOG price per kg (FHL/NSL Oslo) (2) Average C trim price per lb (Urner Barry Miami 2-3 lb) (3) Average superior HOG price per lb (Urner Barry Seattle 10-12 lb) (4) Market price in local currency
Global volumes by market
Markets
EU USA Russia Japan Brasil China / Hong Kong South Korea/Taiwan Ukraina
Sum main markets
Other markets
Total all markets Estimated volumes Q4 2011 Q4 2010
219,000 71,100 42,600 13,800 12,800 12,500 8,400 6,900
387,100
66,100
453,200
195,200 58,100 29,700 9,500 7,500 10,400 6,100 4,000
320,500
56,500
377,000 Compared to Q4 2010 Volume %
23,800 13,000 12,900 4,300 5,300 2,100 2,300 2,900
66,600
9,600
76,200
12.2% 22.4% 43.4% 45.3% 70.7% 20.2% 37.7% 72.5%
20.8%
17.0%
20.2% 12 months comparsion Volume %
48,800 23,500 21,600 9,200 7,800 5,800 8,500 4,300
129,500
27,600
157,100
7.4% 10.2% 24.1% 30.4% 25.2% 15.7% 45.0% 29.9%
11.6%
14.9%
12.1%
• • Inflow to US from Europe Inflow to EU from Chile 21,500 4,100 24,800 3,100 -3,300 1,000 -13.3% 32.3% -16,900 6,000 -17.2% 63.2% The EU, US and Russia consumed the largest incremental volumes • • • Lead times in passing through the lowered raw material prices to consumers continued to prevent stimulation of demand for fresh products in certain parts of EU and for processed products in EU in general Very positive absorption in the US market – at lower price reductions than in the EU Russia currently consuming close to 10% of the world market Source: Kontali Remaining markets experienced very large percentage growth rates • Generally strong stimulation of demand as result of materially reduced prices to consumers 8
Note:
(1) Atlantic Salmon (HOG tons)
MHG- Skill based organisational setup
Functional organisation based on required skills to optimise overall value creation Total value creation commodity operations (Op. EBIT/kg) Added value (Op. EBIT %) Margin achievement Value added focus Cost achievement focus Farming Norway Farming Scotland Farming Canada Farming Chile Farming Ireland Farming Faroes Sales Europe Sales Americas 1) Sales Asia 2) External sales VAP Europe External sales Third Party
Spot transfers at reference price Back-to-back on third party contracts Spot transfers at reference price Contract prices reflecting third party contracts External pricing point for spot and contract sales
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Canada
MHG - Global sales network
Norway Faeroes Scotland Ireland France USA Italy Spain Japan Singapore Poland Belgium Holland Czech Rep.
Chile China South Korea Taiwan Hong Kong
12 10
Fundamental global demand drivers
More people: World population growth
In billions
Exceeding 9 billion people in 2050
120 100
Everyone eating more protein: Growth in meat consumption
Kg per capita per year 8 6 4 80 60 40
On average we will eat 55% more meat in 2030 than in 1980
2 20 0 1950 1970 1990 Developing countries 2010e 2030e Industrial Countries 2050e Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Monday, October 05, 2009; 3:52:48 AM.
01/05/2020 0 1980 1998 Developing countries Industrial countries 2015e Source: FAO corporate document repository, http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/y3557e/y3557e16.htm#a4 2030e Transition countries World
Key protein demand drivers
Healthy quality products which are convenient and require limited preparation for the consumer
Health Sustainabilty Convenience Quality
Examples of parameters
• Sustainability • Energy consumption • Animal welfare • Fair trade • Ecological production • Etc.
Source: EFF, Just-food, TNS World Panel
Fourth Quarter 2011
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Summary
20 percent industry supply growth – low spot price environment
Favourable sales contract portfolio in Q4
Margin improvement in MH VAP Europe
Operational EBIT of NOK 403 million
Restructuring in Canada opens up for improved performance in second half 2012
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Key financials
Marine Harvest Group - main figures
NOK million Operational revenue and other income Operational EBIT 1) EBIT Net financial items Profit or loss for the period Cash flow from operations
Q4. 11 4 254 403 203 -37 100 -107 Q4. 10
4 612 1 033 1 605 - 103 1 071 305
2011
16 024 2 717 1 209 173 1 121 2 771
2010
15 281 3 191 4 461 - 209 3 108 2 599 Total assets Net interest-bearing debt (NIBD) Earnings per share (NOK) ROACE 2) Equity ratio NIBD/Equity
22 794 6 467 0,03 4,9% 47,6% 59,6%
23 529 5 218 0,30 25,5% 53,4% 41,5% 22 794 6 467 0,31 15,0% 47,6% 59,6% 23 529 5 218 0,87 19,7% 53,4% 41,5% Harvest volume (HOG tonnes, salmonids) Operational EBIT - NOK per kg incl sales margin 3) Norway Scotland Canada Chile Operational EBIT% - MH VAP Europe
104 589 4,13 4,32 -3,11 2,82 5,4%
90 485 13,03 8,76 3,80 12,37 2,0% 343 685 na na na na 2,5% 295 712 11,55 8,94 6,65 10,40 3,4% 1) Adjusted for unrealised gains/losses from salmon derivatives, fair value adjustment of biomass, onerous contracts provisions, results from associated companies, restructuring costs and write-downs of fixed assets/intangibles 2) ROACE: Annualised return on average capital employed based on EBIT aligned for fair value adjustment of biomass and onerous contracts provisions / average (NIBD + Equity) 3) Operational EBIT per kg including allocated sales margin. For 2010 the numbers are estimated 15
Norway
NORWAY MH NORWAY FARMING
Revenues and other income Operating EBIT Fair value adj on biomass, contracts/unrealized futures Restructuring costs Income/loss from associated companies Write-down of fixed assets/intangibles EBIT
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM S&M
Contribution to operational EBIT from S&M Operational EBIT incl contribution from S&M Harvest volume Operational EBIT/kg incl contribution from S&M - of which S&M Exceptional items included in operational EBIT Exceptional items included in operational EBIT/kg
New Structure Q4 11 Q4 10
1 836 243 111 0 4 - 2 355 na na 399 0 70 0 na 36 278 67 386 4,13 0,53 - 65 -0,96 na 782 59 973 13,03 na - 55 -0,92 Continued weak spot prices – favourable contracts protected earnings in the quarter 12 percent increase in harvest volume NOK 30 million positive effect on EBIT from sale of three fresh water sites Increased costs: Feed costs up NOK 1.20 / kg Additional sea lice cost NOK 0.79/ kg versus guided estimate of 0.60 – 0.80 per kg Non seawater costs reduced by NOK 0.30 / kg in second half compared to 2010 16 NOTE: Details on associated company Nova Sea in appendix to this presentation
Norway: Achieved price
Contract share 33 % Superior share 95 % *) Reference price is calculated based on NOS price adjusted for MH weight distribution and timing of sales. Price back to plant is calculated by deducting freight from processing plant to price measurement point in Oslo (normally in the range of 0.80 – 1.00 NOK per kg).
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Norway: Sales contract portfolio Q1 and Q2 2012
Contract prices in Q1 and Q2 slightly below contract price in Q4
Note:
Marine Harvest Norway’s fixed price/fixed volume contracts with third party customers and MH’s processing entities. MH’s processing entities covers a large proportion of their sales exposure through third party end product contracts.
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Average price achieved per farming region
Contract share Superior share 33 % 95 % 57% 95% 9 % 89 %
Note:
Average price achievement is measured versus reference prices in all markets (NOS for Norwegian, and Faroese salmon, derived NOS (currently NOS + 2 NOK) for Scottish salmon, and Urner Barry for Canadian and Chilean salmon). 26 % 94 % 19
Cash flow
Marine Harvest Group
NOK million
Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT)
Adjustment for fair value adjustment and onerous contracts Adjustment for income/loss from associated companies Adjustment for depreciation and impairment losses Change in inventory, trade payables and trade receivables Taxes paid Other adjustments
Cash flow from operations
Capital expenditure (fixed assets) Proceeds from associates and other investments Purchase of shares and other investments
Cash flow from investments
Proceeds from convertible bond Proceeds from other new interst-bearing debt (current and non-current) Down payment of interest-bearing debt (current and non-current) Net interest and financial items paid Realised currency effects Net equity paid-in Dividend paid to owners of Marine Harvest ASA Withholding tax related to dividend Dividend paid to non-controlling interests Transactions with treasury shares
Cash flow from financing Change in cash and cash equivalents in the period
Cash and cash equivalents - opening balance Currency effect on cash - opening balance
Cash and cash equivalents - closing balance Q4. 11 203
8 - 4 253 - 474 - 62 - 31
- 107
- 290 7 - 48
- 331
0 1 089 - 781 - 79 92 0 0 0 0 0
321 - 116
396 - 1
279 Q4. 10 1 605
- 503 - 70 169 - 825 - 43 - 29
305
- 290 34 - 1
- 257
0 337 - 140 - 59 63 0 - 216 14 0 0
- 1 47
276 - 4
319 2011 1 209
1 520 9 734 - 550 - 86 - 64
2 771
- 986 107 - 224
-1 103
0 3 125 -1 895 - 349 248 42 -2 879 0 0 - 3
-1 709 - 41
319 1
279 2010 4 461
-1 077 - 202 658 - 928 - 204 - 109
2 599
- 964 60 - 1
- 905
1 820 3 874 -4 931 - 350 172 0 -2 131 0 - 2 0
-1 546 148
172 - 1
319
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•
2012 Cash Flow issues
Working capital (WC): • Due to seawater growth patterns, WC is highly seasonal • Slow seawater growth in 1H leads to working capital release • High seawater growth in 2H leads to working capital tie-up • Organic growth further impacts the overall scope of WC • Incremental 2012 WC release of NOK 100-200m expected • Driven by reductions in smolt release of 11.3m smolt during Q4 2011 and 2012 • Capital expenditure (Capex) issues • 2012 net capex level taken down to approximately NOK 400m • Down from 2011 level of NOK 986m 21
Net interest-bearing debt (NIBD)
Marine Harvest Group
NOK million Non-current interest- bearing debt Current interest-bearing debt Total interest-bearing debt Cash and cash equivalents
Net interest-bearing debt 31.12.2011
6 589 157 6 746 279
6 467 30.09.2011
5 705 832 6 538 396
6 142 31.12.2010
5 107 430 5 537 319
5 218
• • Debt distribution 1) : EUR USD GBP Other currencies Currency effect on debt in Q4 is NOK 72 million.
1) Debt distribution including effect of cross currency sw aps.
92% 6% 0% 2% 91% 6% 0% 3% 85% 8% 4% 3% Given the scope of business in 2012, target is to manage NIBD around NOK 5.8 billion The convertible bond, having a nominal value of EUR 225m, is recognised at EUR 202m at the end of the quarter (difference of NOK 182m) 22
Note
: Hedging policy depicted in appendix
Overview of financing – increase in place
• Increase of existing Facility Agreement completed • Increase from EUR 600m to EUR 775m • Refinancing of short term facilities raised during 1H 2011 • Terms of financing will be unchanged subsequent to the increase • Maturity – Q1 2015 • Lenders: DnB NOR, Nordea, Rabobank and ABN Amro • • No repayments during 2012, semi annual repayments of EUR 16m thereafter Covenants: • Declining NIBD/EBITDA (1) • • 3.50x up to Q2 2012 ratio 3.25x from Q2 2012 to Q2 2014 • 3.00x from Q2 2014 to maturity • 40% equity ratio • Main terms of EUR 225m convertible bond issued March 2010 • • • Tenor 5 years Annual coupon 4.5% Current conversion price: EUR 0.6547
• Last adjustment made subsequent to May 2011 dividend payment (1) Twelve month rolling EBITDA adjusted for certain items
MHG – 2012 volume guidance
Salmon species
HOG tons (1000)
Norway
Growth %
Chile (1)
Growth %
Canada
Growth %
Scotland
Growth %
Other Units
Growth %
Total
Growth %
Q1 2011 Q2-Q4 2011
Actual Actual
48
-3%
4
155%
9
-13%
10
53%
4
9%
76
4%
169
11%
23
154%
24
8%
40
51%
11
-9%
268
20%
2011
Actual
217
7%
27
154%
34
1%
50
51%
15
-4%
344
16% • Minor changes compared to Q3 guidance
Q1 2012 Q2-Q4 2012
Estimate Estimate
58
20%
9
150%
10
0%
9
-18%
4
-5%
89
17%
177
5%
26
12%
28
13%
29
-28%
12
9%
271
1%
2012
Estimate
235
8%
35
30%
37
9%
37
-26%
16
5%
360
5% • Actual harvest volumes will be affected by e.g.
• Water temperatures • • • Development in biological growth Biological challenges such as diseases, algae blooms etc Market developments • • Estimates will be updated on a quarterly basis Actual harvest volumes will be reported after end of each quarter
Note:
(1) Sold volume for Chile up to Q2 2011, harvest volumes thereafter 24
Sales contract policy
Norway (2) (3) Chile (3) Canada Scotland Ireland Faroes
Weighted average Min hedging rate (1) Max hedging rate (1)
22.5 % 22.5 % 0.0 % 40.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
21.0 %
50.0 % 50.0 % 30.0 % 75.0 % 30.0 % 30.0 %
49.6 % Note:
(1) Hedging rates for the next quarter, limits dropping over time (2) External and internal contract (including financial futures) (3) Contract rate can be increased to 65% under special circumstances • • Marine Harvest currently has the following contract rates for Q1 2012 (% of guided volume): •
Norway 20% (temporary exemption from policy)
•
Scotland 75%
• •
Canada 8% Chile 32%
Contracts typically have a duration of 3-12 months • Contracts are entered into on a regular basis • Policy opens for contracts of up to 36 month duration
Note:
Marine Harvest Norway’s fixed price/fixed volume contracts with third party customers and MH’s processing entities. MH’s processing entities covers a large proportion of their sales exposure through third party end product contracts.
Outlook
Challenging supply situation in 2012 – continued price pressure Positive contribution from geographical market expansion The biological risk in Chile is still considered to be high Strong focus on capital efficiency and cost measures 26