Transcript Slide 1

2009 Matric Results:
A Brief Overview
Presented to Management Committee
19 January 2010
Professor George Subotzky
Executive Director,
Department of Information & Strategic Analysis
Background
• As a combined effect of historical disadvantage, ineffective
policy & ongoing inefficiencies, the quality of output from SA’s
School system remains disturbingly inadequate and declining
• As a result, the higher education sector has had to embark on
an extensive academic development initiative, which for many
years was unfunded by the state
• In these circumstances, Unisa’s new initiatives in teacher INSET
and school support assume greater significance
• In an increasingly competitive environment and in relation to its
social mandate and strategic objectives, it is important for Unisa
track the quality, size and shape of the pool of potential
students emanating from the schooling system each year
Current Context
•
•
•
•
•
The 2009 Matric results are significant in a number of
ways:
An overall decline in pass rates is evident
This is the second year of the new NSC
Simultaneously, the higher education sector is being
strongly regulated by enrolment planning and capping
and also faces intensifying demands for greater
efficiencies regarding student success
Higher education institutions are beginning to adopt
adaptive strategies in the light of these trends, namely
capping enrolments and imposing more stringent
admission requirements
These combined trends have important implications
for Unisa and its admissions policy and enrolment
planning imperatives
National Pass Rate
1998 – 2009
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Pass Rate 49.3% 48.9% 57.8% 61.7% 68.9% 73.2% 70.7% 68.3% 66.5% 65.2% 62.5% 60.6%
National Achievement
2008-2009
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Wrote
2008
2008
2009
2009
Failed
N 533,561 199,817
%
37.4%
N 552,073 217,355
%
39.4%
NSC
180
0.0%
630
0.1%
Total
Passed
102,032 124,258 107,274 333,744
19.1% 23.3% 20.1% 62.6%
93,356 131,035 109,697 334,718
16.9% 23.7% 19.9% 60.6%
HC
DIPL
BACH
Endorsement/Bachelor Passes
2004-2009
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Endors/Bach
2005
17.0%
2006
16.2%
2007
15.1%
2008
20.1%
2009
19.9%
Achievement by Province
2008-2009
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Eastern
Cape
2008 50.6%
2009 51.0%
Free
State
71.8%
69.4%
Gauteng
76.4%
71.8%
KwaZuluMpumala North
Limpopo
Natal
nga
West
57.6%
54.3%
51.8%
68.0%
61.1%
48.9%
47.9%
67.5%
Northern Western
National
Cape
Cape
72.7%
78.4%
62.6%
61.3%
75.7%
60.6%
National Achievement by Gender
2009
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
Wrote
Female N 300,606
Female %
Male N
251,467
Male %
Failed
NSC
HC
DIPL
BACH
121,681
37.4%
95,676
39.4%
311
0.1%
317
0.1%
50,433
16.8%
42,913
17.1%
67,024
22.3%
64,011
25.5%
61,147
20.3%
48,550
19.3%
Total
Passed
178,925
62.6%
155,791
60.6%
Mathematics
2008-2009
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2008 N
2008 %
2009 N
2009 %
Wrote
Failed
298,821
162,318
54.3%
156,902
54.0%
290,407
Achievement at
30% and above
136,503
45.7%
133,505
46.0%
Achievement at
40% and above
89,788
30.0%
85,356
29.4%
Mathematics Literacy
2008-2009
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
2008
2008
2009
2009
N
%
N
%
Wrote
Failed
263,464
56,234
21.30%
70,351
25.30%
277,677
Achievement
at 30% and
above
207,230
78.70%
207,326
74.70%
Achievement
at 40% and
above
144,830
55.00%
141,708
51.00%
Physical Science
2008-2009
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
2008 N
2008%
2009 N
2009%
Wrote
Failed
218,156
98,333
45.07%
139,526
63.17%
220,882
Achievement
at 30% and
above
119,823
54.93%
81,356
36.83%
Achievement
at 40% and
above
62,530
28.66%
45,452
20.58%
Accounting
2008-2009
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
2008 N
2008 %
2009 N
2009 %
Wrote
Failed
176,078
67,979
38.6%
67,191
38.5%
174,347
Achievement
at 30% and
above
108,099
61.4%
107,156
61.5%
Achievement
at 40% and
above
55,164
31.3%
62,743
36.0%
% of Schools within Pass Rate
Bands 2008-9
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2008
2009
Exactly 0%
0-19.9%
20-39.9%
40-59.9%
60-79.9%
80-100%
0.7%
0.3%
8.7%
7.0%
19.3%
20.3%
22.9%
25.9%
21.0%
22.1%
28.1%
24.7%
Exactly
100%
8.0%
6.6%
Grade 1 Survival Rate
2008-2009
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
-
Grade 1 Intake
NSC Passes
Survival Rate
2008
1,122,444
333,744
29.7%
2009
1,019,795
334,718
32.8%
Minister’s Comments
• The NCS - an important indicator of the quality of the country’s
education system
• 60,6 percent pass rate disappointing
• Mathematics, Physical Science and Accounting need attention
• 417 schools achieved a 100% pass rate
• Schools achieving less than 20% have declined
• Root causes: Poor teaching, weak management, lack of leadership
and commitment
• Frank admission of problems and challenges reflects more open
approach of Zuma Administration
Strategies/Interventions
• Intensified efforts to address obvious weaknesses, especially
in Mathematics and Physical Science
• Streamlining of current curriculum and assessment policies:
Implementation of the recommendations of the Report on the
National Curriculum Statement (Sept 09)
• Establishment of a Teacher Development Branch in the
reconfigured Basic Education Department. Focus areas:
• Strengthening teaching skills and content knowledge
• Reducing learner portfolios in all subjects
• Reducing learner projects for each learning area
• President Zuma has called for an action plan by the end of
February
Conclusion
• Critical analyses (including Prof Baijnath’s)
highlight multiple causes and the need for
co-ordinated multi-level solutions
• Prognosis for the effective development and
implementation of these remains poor
• Higher education will therefore have to
continue bearing the burden of academic
development
• Nonetheless, opportunities abound for Unisa
to contribute towards school improvement,
and especially teacher development
Conclusion
• Despite a slight increase in the pool of higher
education entrants in terms of absolute
numbers, inflows to higher education have
become increasingly more problematic with
regard to quality
• On the back of poorer success rates among
the 2008 1st NSC cohort, many institutions
have instituted more stringent admissions
criteria in 2010
• Increased demand for admission to Unisa can
be expected and is evident in registration
trends to date