Transcript Cover page Client/Prospect Name

Economic Outlook
Michael Wolf, Economist
September 12, 2014
Gross Domestic Product
U.S. Real GDP
Bars = CAGR
Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
10%
10%
GDP - CAGR: Q2 @ 4.2%
8%
GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q2 @ 2.5%
6%
6%
Forecast
4%
Real GDP declined in the first
quarter, but those
contractionary forces should
prove to be temporary
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-6%
-6%
-8%
-8%
-10%
2000
-10%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
8%
2
2012
2014
Government
Government Purchases
Real Government Purchases
Bars = CAGR
Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
10%
10%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
The public sector has remained
a weight on the overall economy,
but should soon move back into
being a minor contributor to
overall growth
Forecast
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-6%
Government Purchases-CAGR: Q2 @ 1.4%
-6%
Government Purchases-Yr/Yr: Q2 @ -0.8%
-8%
2000
-8%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
4
2012
2014
U.S. Budget Deficit
Federal Budget Surplus or Deficit
12-Month Moving Sum in Billions of Dollars
$400
$400
$200
$200
$0
Deficit is shrinking, but not
nearly fast enough
$0
-$200
-$200
-$400
-$400
-$600
-$600
-$800
-$800
-$1,000
-$1,000
-$1,200
-$1,200
-$1,400
-$1,400
Surplus or Deficit: Jul @ -$533 Billion
-$1,600
-$1,600
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
5
10
11
12
13
14
U.S. Budget Gap
U.S. Budget Gap
CBO Baseline Scenario Projections, Percent of GDP
The larger problem is that there
is still no credible plan to move
back into a surplus
26%
26%
24%
24%
22%
22%
20%
20%
18%
18%
16%
16%
Outlays: 2024 @ 22.1%
Revenues: 2024 @ 18.3%
14%
2013
14%
2015
2017
2019
Source: Congressional Budget Office and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
6
2021
2023
Federal Government Spending: Entitlements in the Driver’s Seat
U.S. Federal Government Mandatory Outlays
Trillions of U.S. Dollars, Projections Begin in 2014
$4.0T
$4.0T
$3.5T
Entitlement programs are the
main drivers of growing
expenditures
Other Programs: 2024 @ $0.2T
Income Security: 2024 @ $0.3T
Social Security: 2024 @ $1.5T
Healthcare Programs: 2024 @ $1.6T
$3.0T
$3.0T
$2.5T
$2.5T
$2.0T
$2.0T
$1.5T
$1.5T
$1.0T
$1.0T
$0.5T
$0.5T
$0.0T
2013
$0.0T
2015
2017
2019
Source: Congressional Budget Office and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
$3.5T
7
2021
2023
Business Investment
Business Investment
Real Business Fixed Investment
Bars = CAGR
Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
30%
30%
20%
20%
Forecast
10%
Business investment looks to be
strengthening after a hiccup
earlier in the year
0%
10%
0%
-10%
-10%
-20%
-20%
-30%
-30%
Non-Res Fixed Invest - CAGR: Q2 @ 8.4%
Non-Res Fixed Invest - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q2 @ 6.4%
-40%
2000
-40%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
9
2012
2014
Corporate Cash
U.S. Nonfin. Corporate Cash Holdings
Total Assets Market Value, U.S. Nonfinancial Corporations
5.5%
5.5%
Cash Ratio: Q1 @ 4.3%
5.0%
The financial health of the
corporate sector is very strong
and should allow corporations
to spend more going forward
4-Q Moving Average: Q1 @ 4.4%
4.5%
4.5%
4.0%
4.0%
3.5%
3.5%
3.0%
3.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
5.0%
10
Business Lending
Commercial and Industrial Loans
At Commercial Banks in the United States
Commercial and industrial
lending has surged over the past
quarter, helped by easier credit
and increased demand
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
-10%
-10%
-20%
-20%
Year-over-Year Change: Jul @ 10.9%
3-Month Annualized Rate: Jul @ 11.9%
-30%
-30%
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
11
04
06
08
10
12
14
Manufacturing
ISM Manufacturing Composite Index
Diffusion Index
Large, Global Businesses:
Recent pickup in activity
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
ISM Manufacturing Index: Aug @ 59.0
12-Month Moving Average: Aug @ 55.5
30
30
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
Source: Institute for Supply Management and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
12
06
08
10
12
14
CRE: Industrial
Industrial Supply & Demand
Percent, Millions of Square Feet
A rise in manufacturing and
energy production has fueled
growth in the industrial real
estate market
12%
80
11%
60
10%
40
9%
20
8%
0
7%
-20
6%
-40
Industrial Net Completions: Q2 @ 20.2M SF (Right Axis)
Industrial Net Absorption: Q2 @ 30.7M SF (Right Axis)
Industrial Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 7.2% (Left Axis)
5%
-60
4%
-80
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: PPR and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
13
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Manufacturing: Production and Jobs Gap
Production & Jobs in Manufacturing Sector
Index, 2007=100 on Left Axis, Right Axis in Millions
120
20
NAFTA
Rising manufacturing
production has not led to huge
job gains
China
Joins
WTO
100
18
80
16
60
14
40
12
Manufacturing Production: Jul @ 100.7 (Left Axis)
Manufacturing Employment: Aug @ 12.2 Million (Right Axis)
20
10
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Source: Institute for Supply Management and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
14
CRE: Office
Office Supply & Demand
Percent, Millions of Square Feet
Improvement in the office sector
has been more modest despite
strong gains in office-using
employment
21%
30
18%
20
15%
10
12%
0
9%
-10
6%
-20
Office Net Completions: Q2 @ 4.3M SF (Right Axis)
Office Net Absorption: Q2 @ 3.0M SF (Right Axis)
Office Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 16.8% (Left Axis)
3%
-30
0%
-40
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Reis, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
15
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Commercial Real Estate
Commercial Real Estate Vacancy Rates
Percent
24%
20%
The recovery has been uneven
across property types
24%
Office Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 16.8%
Industrial Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 7.2%
Retail Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 10.3%
Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 4.1%
16%
16%
12%
12%
8%
8%
4%
4%
0%
1994
0%
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Source: Reis, Inc., PPR and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
20%
16
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Small Businesses
Wells Fargo Small Business Survey & NFIB
Overall Situation, NFIB Small Business Optimism 1986=100
120
Small Businesses:
A full recovery in small business
optimism is still distant, with
taxes and regulation remaining
the two big issues
115
100
110
80
105
60
100
40
95
20
90
0
85
-20
80
Wells Fargo Overall Situation: Q3 2014 @ 49.0 (Left Axis)
-40
75
Small Business Optimism: Q2 2014 @ 95.6 (Right Axis)
-60
70
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses, Gallup, Wells Fargo Bank and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
17
Consumption
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Bars = CAGR
Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
8%
8%
6%
6%
Forecast
4%
Consumption should rebound
during the forecast period but
growth is likely to remain
somewhat subdued
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-6%
-8%
2000
-6%
PCE - CAGR: Q2 @ 2.5%
PCE - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q2 @ 2.3%
-8%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
4%
19
2012
2014
Employment
Nonfarm Employment Change
Change in Employment, In Thousands
600
600
400
400
200
200
0
Total employment finally
breached its prerecession peak…
0
-200
-200
-400
-400
-600
-600
-800
-800
Monthly Change: Aug @ 142K
-1,000
-1,000
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
20
09
10
11
12
13
14
Employment: Structural
Full-Time vs. Total Employment
Millions
143
128
Total Employees: Aug @ 139.1 M (Left Axis)
Total Full-Time Employees: Aug @ 118.6 M (Right Axis)
140
125
Total: 0.8 M Above Prerecession Peak
137
122
Full Time: 3.3 M Below Prerecession Peak
We still have a ways to go before
recovering all of the full-time
jobs lost in the most recent
recession
134
119
131
116
128
113
125
2007
110
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
21
2012
2013
2014
Unemployment
Unemployment Measures
18%
18%
Unemployment Rate: Aug @ 6.1%
U-6 Unemployment Rate: Aug @ 12.0%
16%
…but the unemployment rate
overstates the health of the labor
market. Discouraged workers
and an abundance of part-time
work rein in spending
16%
14%
14%
12%
12%
10%
10%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
94
96
98
00
02
04
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
22
06
08
10
12
14
Wages and Salaries
Employment Cost Index
Year-over-Year Percent Change
4%
4%
Wages and Salaries: Q2 @ 1.8%
Total Compensation: Q2 @ 2.0%
In addition, wage growth has
been relatively slow to pick up,
while inflation begins to pull
away
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
23
2010
2012
2014
Income Growth: Different Rates
Income Growth by Quintile
Percent Change from 1984 to 2012, After-Tax Income
After-tax nominal income has
increased the most for the
lowest and highest income
households since the mid-1980s
250%
250%
200%
200%
150%
150%
100%
100%
50%
50%
0%
0%
Lowest 20
percent
Second 20
percent
Third 20
percent
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
24
Fourth 20
percent
Highest 20
percent
Income Growth: Rising at Different Rates
Income Growth by Quintile
Percent Change in Nominal After-Tax Income 2007-2012
8%
8%
5.6%
6%
6%
4.7%
3.5%
4%
2%
Since 2007, income growth has
been clearly concentrated in the
upper quintiles
4%
2%
1.2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-3.4%
-6%
-6%
Lowest 20
percent
Second 20
percent
Third 20
percent
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
25
Fourth 20
percent
Highest 20
percent
Consumer Balance Sheet
Household Debt - Consumer & Mortgage
As a Percent of Disposable Personal Income
130%
Although consumer leverage
remains elevated, it is off its
prerecession high
130%
120%
120%
110%
110%
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
Household Debt: Q1 @ 97.9%
40%
40%
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
Source: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
26
10
Debt Service Ratio
Household Debt Service Ratio
Debt Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income
13.5%
13.5%
DSR: Q1 @ 9.9%
And the debt service ratio has
fallen to historical lows
13.0%
13.0%
12.5%
12.5%
12.0%
12.0%
11.5%
11.5%
11.0%
11.0%
10.5%
10.5%
10.0%
10.0%
9.5%
9.5%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Source: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
27
Household Debt
Rising student loan debt is crowding out other borrowing, particularly for autos and credit
cards
2003
2013
Household Debt - 2003
Household Debt - 2013
Other, 5.6%
HE Revolving,
4.7%
HE Revolving,
3.7%
Other, 2.7%
Credit Card,
6.0%
Credit Card,
8.7%
Auto Loans,
7.5%
Auto Loans,
8.7%
Student Loans,
9.1%
Student Loans,
3.1%
Mortgage,
70.0%
Mortgage,
70.2%
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
28
Housing Market
Housing Market: Existing Home Sales
Existing Home Sales
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, In Millions
7.5
Existing home sales have started
to rebound but remain lower
than a year ago
7.5
7.0
7.0
6.5
6.5
6.0
6.0
5.5
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
Existing Home Sales: Jul @ 5.2 M
3.0
3.0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
30
11
12
13
14
Housing Market: Home Sales
Existing Home Sales
Existing Homes Sold During Month, 2002=100
The recent weakness was seen
across regions
150
150
130
130
110
110
90
90
70
70
Northeast: Jul @ 64.0
Midwest: Jul @ 87.8
South: Jul @ 100.0
West: Jul @ 87.3
50
50
30
30
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
31
11
12
13
14
Housing Market: New Home Sales
New Home Sales
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, In Thousands
1,500
New home sales have seen only
modest improvement
1,500
1,300
1,300
1,100
1,100
900
900
700
700
500
500
300
300
New Home Sales: Jul @ 412,000
3-Month Moving Average: Jul @ 429,333
100
100
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
32
07
09
11
13
Mortgage Rates
Conventional 30-Year Mortgage Rate
Percent, FHLMC Fixed-Rate Mortgage
7.0%
Although mortgage rates remain
low by historical standards, the
rise over last year has had a
negative effect on homebuying
7.0%
6.5%
6.5%
6.0%
6.0%
5.5%
5.5%
5.0%
5.0%
4.5%
4.5%
4.0%
4.0%
3.5%
3.5%
3.0%
3.0%
Conventional 30-Year Fixed Mortg. Rate: Sep-10 @ 4.10%
2.5%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Freddie Mac and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
33
2.5%
Residential Loan Standards
Residential Loan Standards and Demand
Prime Mortgages, Net Percent of Banks Reporting Change
Demand appears to be
strengthening as tightening
standards decrease
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
-20%
-20%
-40%
-40%
-60%
-80%
2007
Tightening Standards: Q3 @ -18.3%
Reporting Stronger Demand: Q3 @ 45.1%
-80%
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
-60%
34
2012
2013
2014
Home Purchase Expectations
Confidence: Plans to Buy a Home
Percent of Consumers, Conference Board
10%
10%
Plans to Buy a Home Within Six Months: Aug @ 4.9%
12-Month Moving Average: Aug @ 5.5%
9%
But other indicators show that
demand remains soft
9%
8%
8%
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: The Conference Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
35
09
10
11
12
13
14
Home Prices
Home Prices
Year-over-Year Percentage Change
Home price gains have
moderated considerably
24%
24%
16%
16%
8%
8%
0%
0%
-8%
-8%
-16%
-16%
Median Sale Price: Jul @ $223,900
Median Sales Price 3-M Mov. Avg.: Jul @ 4.4%
FHFA (OFHEO) Purchase Only Index: Jun @ 5.1%
S&P Case-Shiller Composite 10: Jun @ 8.1%
-24%
-24%
-32%
-32%
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Association of Realtors, S&P Corp. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
36
Housing Market: Inventories
Single-Family Home Inventory
Millions of Units
4.5
4.0
Low inventories have applied
upward pressure on price
4.5
New Homes: Jul @ 0.21M
Existing Homes: Jul @ 2.09M
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
37
11
12
13
14
Housing Market: Distressed Home Sales
U.S. Distressed Home Sales
Percent of Total Sales
55%
55%
Total Distressed: Jul @ 9.0%
50%
Fewer distressed homes
available at a discount also keep
prices moving higher
45%
45%
40%
40%
35%
35%
30%
30%
25%
25%
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
0%
2009
5%
0%
2010
2011
2012
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
50%
38
2013
2014
Housing Market Fundamentals Are Changing
Household formations remain well below their historical norms, and a larger proportion of
new households are choosing to rent
Household Formation
Owners vs. Renters
Household Formation
U.S. Homeowners vs. Renters
Annual Change in Occupied Units, In Thousands
Millions of Households Formed
2.5
2,500
2.5
Household Formation: 2013 @ 0.45 Million
1965-2001 Average: 2013 @ 1.28 Million
2,000
* 1982 and 2001 replaced with previous and prior
year average to account for series breaks
2.0
2,500
Renters: 2013 @ 525.5 Thousand
Homeowners: 2013 @ -76.5 Thousand
2.0
1.5
1.5
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
500
1.0
1.0
500
0
-500
0.5
0
Series
Break
1981
-500
0.5
-1,000
0.0
-1,500
0.0
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
01
05
09
-1,500
66
13
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
-1,000
39
70
74
78
82
86
90
94
98
02
06
10
Housing Market: Home Sales
New Home Sales vs. Wells Fargo NAHB Index
Thousands of Units, Index
Despite slow growth in new
home sales, homebuilders
remain a bit more optimistic
1,500
100
1,350
90
1,200
80
1,050
70
900
60
750
50
600
40
450
30
300
20
New Home Sales: Jul @ 412,000 (Left Axis)
Wells Fargo NAHB Index: Aug @ 55.0 (Right Axis)
150
10
0
0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
40
Housing Market: Apartments
Apartment Supply & Demand
Percent, Thousands of Units
Some builders are likely
benefitting from growth in the
multifamily market, where
apartment demand and
construction remains strong
9%
100
8%
75
7%
50
6%
25
5%
0
4%
-25
Apartment Net Completions: Q2 @ 34,431 Units (Right Axis)
Apartment Net Absorption: Q2 @ 35,539 Units (Right Axis)
Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q2 @ 4.1% (Left Axis)
3%
-50
2%
-75
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: Reis and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
41
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Housing Market: Condos
Existing Condominium Resales
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate - In Millions
Existing condo sales had also
slipped recently but the upward
trajectory is clear
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
Condo Sales: Jul @ 600,000
0.3
0.3
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
42
10
11
12
13
14
Housing Market: Residential Construction
Housing Starts
2.4
2.1
1.8
We expect residential
construction to continue to
advance, though a full recovery
in the housing market is a long
way off
2.4
Multifamily Starts
Multifamily Forecast
Single-family Starts
Single-family Forecast
2.1
Forecast
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.2
0.9
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economics
1.8
43
Thousands
Millions of Units
U.S. Forecast
Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast
Actual
Forecast
2013
Real Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption
Inflation Indicators
PCE Deflator
1
2011
Actual
2012
2013
Forecast
2014
2015
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
2.7
1.8
4.5
3.5
-2.1
4.2
2.0
2.8
1.6
2.3
2.2
2.0
2.9
3.6
1.8
2.0
3.7
1.2
2.5
2.1
2.5
2.3
1.8
2.4
2.2
2.5
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.1
1.6
1.6
1.9
2.5
1.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
1.7
1.4
1.5
1.2
1.4
2.1
2.1
2.3
3.1
2.1
1.5
2.0
2.3
4.2
1.9
2.5
4.9
3.9
5.3
4.4
4.3
3.3
3.8
2.9
4.1
4.8
2
Consumer Price Index
Industrial Production
1
Corporate Profits Before Taxes
Trade Weighted Dollar Index
Unemployment Rate
Housing Starts
2014
2
3
4
3.1
3.9
4.9
4.7
-4.8
-0.3
3.8
4.0
4.0
11.4
4.2
0.7
4.3
76.2
77.5
75.2
76.4
76.9
75.9
77.3
77.5
70.9
73.5
75.9
76.9
78.7
7.7
7.5
7.2
7.0
6.7
6.2
6.1
5.9
8.9
8.1
7.4
6.2
5.7
0.78
0.92
0.97
1.10
0.95
0.86
0.88
1.03
0.93
1.00
0.99
0.98
0.61
5
Quarter-End Interest Rates
Federal Funds Target Rate
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.63
Conventional Mortgage Rate
3.57
4.07
4.49
4.46
4.34
4.16
4.04
4.25
4.46
3.66
3.98
4.20
4.39
10 Year Note
1.87
2.52
2.64
3.04
2.73
2.53
2.44
2.70
2.78
1.80
2.35
2.60
2.92
Forecast as of: August 29, 2014
1
C ompound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter
2
Year-over-Year Percentage C hange
3
Federal Reserve Major C urrency Index, 1973=100 - Quarter End
4
Millions of Units
5
Annual Numbers Represent Averages
Economics
44
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group
Global Head of Research and Economics
Economists
Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………… ……………[email protected]
Diane Schumaker-Krieg
………………… …[email protected]
Global Head of Research & Economics
……
Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………… ……………[email protected]
Eric J. Viloria, Currency Strategist
Chief Economist
Sarah Watt House, Economist
John E. Silvia …
...................... …
[email protected]
.
[email protected]
…………… …………[email protected]
Michael A. Brown, Economist ……………… …
Michael T. Wolf, Economist
Senior Economists
………………… …
[email protected]
.
[email protected]
Economic Analysts
Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. .
[email protected]
Zachary Griffiths, Economic Analyst
[email protected]
Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist …………………....…… …[email protected]
Mackenzie Miller, Economic Analyst
[email protected]
Sam Bullard, Senior Economist
.
Erik Nelson, Economic Analyst
[email protected]
Alex Moehring, Economic Analyst
Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategist ……[email protected]
Administrative Assistants
Eugenio J. Alemán, Senior Economist… …………[email protected]
Anika R. Khan, Senior Economist …
[email protected]
[email protected]
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. [email protected]
Cyndi Burris, Senior Administrative Assistant
[email protected]
[email protected]
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