Transcript Economic Outlook - CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS&#174

What Forces are Driving California’s Recovery
Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior Economist
November 13, 2013
Key Macroeconomic Trends
Economic growth continues to
gradually gain momentum
California’s economy is ahead of
the nation in many ways but
other areas are more challenged
A Cloud of
Uncertainty
Hangs Over
the Economy

Unprecedented changes in fiscal and monetary policy have cast
a cloud of uncertainty over economic decision making. The
persistence of large budget deficits and new regulations
regarding healthcare and financial services have effectively
raised the hurdle rate that new investment and hiring
decisions must clear in order to be enacted
Below Trend
GDP Growth
Bolsters the
Case for the
New Normal

Real GDP growth has averaged a 2.2 percent pace since the
recession ended, which is well below the 3.3 percent pace
averaged during the 25 years prior to the Great Recession. The
Obama Administration and Fed have worked to close the
output gap and bring GDP growth back to its previous trend.
The lack of success bolsters the case for the New Normal.
QE Has Boosted
Asset Prices
But Not
Underlying
Fundamentals

The Fed’s massive expansion of its balance sheet did a good job
of driving interest rates lower and sending the stock market
higher. While producing some beneficial effects, higher asset
prices have done little to boost income growth. QE has also led
to increased speculative activity, with home prices rising even
when homeownership is declining.
California’s
Recovery is
Broadening
and Gaining
Momentum

Led by strong gains in technology and tourism, California’s
recovery has steadily gained momentum. Job growth has
decelerated recently and is just keeping pace with the nation.
The unemployment rate is trending lower. The gap between
the conditions along the coast and the state’s interior has
widened, as the recovery in the Central Valley remains slow.

While competition from Texas and Silicon Alley has received a
great deal of attention, California’s lead in information
technology has widened in recent years. The Bay area remains
the innovation hub for mobile devices social media, cloud
computing and alternative energy. Manufacturing remains a
huge challenge for the state, however, even with tech.
California
Maintains a
Huge Lead in
Technology
Economic Outlook
2
U.S. GDP
U.S. Real GDP
Bars = CAGR
Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
10%
10%
GDP - CAGR: Q3 @ 2.8%
8%
GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ 1.6%
6%
6%
Forecast
4%
We see economic growth
gradually regaining momentum
as the housing recovery takes
hold and the drag from fiscal
belt tightening gradually wanes
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-6%
-6%
-8%
-8%
-10%
2000
-10%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
8%
3
2012
2014
U.S. GDP
The combination of sluggish economic growth and low inflation means that revenue growth is
unusually sluggish, which impacts certain parts of the economy differently
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
U.S. Nominal GDP
U.S. Real GDP
Bars = Compound Annual Rate
Bars = Compound Annual Rate
Line = Yr/Yr % Change
10%
Line = Yr/Yr % Change
10%
12%
12%
8%
8%
10%
10%
6%
6%
8%
8%
4%
4%
6%
6%
2%
2%
4%
4%
0%
0%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-4%
-4%
-6%
-6%
Real GDP: Q3 @ 2.8%
-8%
-6%
-8%
Real GDP: Q3 @ 1.6%
-10%
-8%
-10%
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
-8%
Nominal GDP: Q3 @ 3.1%
-10%
12
-10%
96
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
-6%
Nominal GDP: Q3 @ 4.8%
4
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Labor Market Dynamics
Unemployment v. Employment-Population Ratio
16 Years and Over, Seasonally Adjusted
11%
57%
Unemployment Rate: Oct @ 7.3% (Left Axis)
Employment-Population: Oct @ 58.3% (Right Axis - Inverted)
10%
The employment-population
rate hasn’t improved over the
past four years, despite the fall
in the unemployment rate,
suggesting that many job
seekers have simply given up.
58%
9%
59%
8%
60%
7%
61%
6%
62%
5%
63%
4%
64%
3%
65%
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
5
04
06
08
10
12
Housing Market Metrics
Despite some recent setbacks, we continue to look for a gradual recovery in homebuilding.
Apartments are playing a larger role than in previous building cycles.
Housing Starts
Home Prices
Housing Starts
S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index vs.
Homeownership Rate
Millions of Units
70%
18%
69%
1.8
12%
68%
1.5
1.5
6%
67%
1.2
1.2
0%
66%
0.9
0.9
-6%
65%
0.6
0.6
-12%
64%
0.3
0.3
-18%
2.4
Multifamily Starts
2.1
1.8
Multifamily Forecast
2.1
Single-family Starts
Single-family Forecast
Forecast
Thousands
24%
2.4
63%
National Home Price Index: Q2 @ 10.1% (Left Axis)
Homeownership Rate: Q3 @ 65.3% (Right Axis)
0.0
-24%
0.0
Source: NAR, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
62%
88
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
6
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Labor Market Metrics
Layoffs have clearly declined but businesses are still reluctant to add staff
Initial Claims
Hiring
U.S. Hiring Rate
Initial Claims for Unemployment
Seasonally Adjusted
Seasonally Adjusted, In Thousands
700
Year-over-Year Percent Change: Nov-2 @ -7.4%
Initial Claims: Nov-2 @ 336.0 Thousand
4-Week Moving Average: Nov-2 @ 348.3 Thousand
52-Week Moving Average: Nov-2 @ 349.8 Thousand
650
600
700
4.2%
4.2%
650
4.0%
4.0%
3.8%
3.8%
3.6%
3.6%
3.4%
3.4%
3.2%
3.2%
3.0%
3.0%
600
550
550
500
500
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
2.8%
2.8%
3-Month Moving Average: Aug @ 3.3%
12-Month Moving Average: Aug @ 3.2%
250
2.6%
250
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
2.6%
02
12
7
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Negative Equity Mortgages
Negative Equity by State
Percent of Mortgages Outstanding
Minnesota
The rise in home prices has
helped bring down the share of
owners who own more on their
home than their home is worth
12.6%
16.3%
New Hampshire
14.2%
New Jersey
14.9%
California
15.4%
Q2 2013
15.4%
32.8%
Maryland
17.3%
Ohio
18.8%
19.7%
Rhode Island
18.8%
20.3%
Illinois
20.0%
19.7%
Georgia
20.7%
Michigan
22.2%
28.1%
22.5%
Arizona
38.0%
24.7%
Florida
50.0%
31.5%
Nevada
46.4%
36.4%
U.S.
14.5%
0%
10%
8
68.1%
23.0%
20%
Source: CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
Q2 2010
18.4%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Percent change in real GDP by state 2011-2012
WA
3.6
MT
2.1
OR
3.9
MN
3.5
ID
0.4
CA
3.5
VT
1.2
ND
13.4
WY
3.3
NV
1.5
SD
0.2
WI
3.5
UT
3.4
CO
2.1
AZ
2.6
IL
1.9
KS
1.4
TX
4.8
IN
3.3
MO
2.0
OK
2.1
NM
0.2
MI
2.2
IA
2.4
NE
1.5
NY
1.3
PA
1.7
OH
2.2
KY
1.4
WV
3.3
VA
1.1
ME
0.5
NH
0.5
MA
2.2
RI
CT 1.4
NJ -0.1
1.3
DE
0.2
DC
MD 0.7
2.4
NC
2.7
TN
3.3
AR
1.3
SC
2.7
MS
2.4
AL
1.2
GA
2.1
LA
1.5
U.S. = 2.5
FL
2.4
AK
1.1
-0.1–1.2
1.2–1.5
1.5–2.2
2.2–3.3
HI
1.6
Economic Outlook
3.3–13.4
California
California Employment Picture
California Employment: Percent of Previous Peak
Percent
The most recent recession was
more than twice as severe as the
one California experience
following the end of the Cold
War
Nonfarm employment remains
3.6 percent below its previous
peak in California
102%
102%
100%
100%
98%
98%
96%
96%
94%
94%
92%
92%
Percent of Previous Peak: Aug @ 96.4%
90%
90%
69
72
75
78
81
84
87
90
93
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
11
96
99
02
05
08
11
California – Labor Market
While nonfarm employment growth has decelerated recently, we suspect that job growth is
being understated and look for the unemployment rate to trend lower.
Employment
Unemployment & Labor Force
California Nonfarm Employment
California vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate
3-Month Moving Averages
8%
8%
Seasonally Adjusted
14%
14%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
8%
8%
-2%
-2%
6%
6%
-4%
-4%
4%
4%
-6%
-6%
QCEW: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Mar @ 2.9%
Nonfarm: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Aug @ 1.5%
Household: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Aug @ 2.8%
-8%
-10%
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
10%
10%
2%
Unemployment Rate: Aug @ 8.9%
United States: Aug @ 7.3%
0%
12
0%
90
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
12%
2%
-8%
-10%
12%
12
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
California Nonfarm Employment Growth by Industry
California Employment Growth by Industry
3-Month Moving Averages, August 2013
6%
Recovering
Expanding
Percent of Total Employees
5%
3-Month Annualized Percent Change
10% to 20%
5 % to 10%
4%
Leisure and Hospitality
Less than 5%
Trade, Trans. & Utilites
3%
Educ. & Health Svcs.
2%
Financial Activities
1%
Prof. & Bus. Svcs.
Manufacturing
Information
0%
Other Services
Government
-1%
-2%
-3%
Construction
-4%
Contracting
-5%
-5%
-4%
Decelerating
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
Year-over-Year Percent Change
Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
13
3%
4%
5%
6%
California
Unemployment Rate by County
California Unemployment Rate
August 2013
Greater than 14.0%
8.0% to 10.0%
12.0% to 14.0%
Less than 8.0%
10.0% to 12.0%
Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
14
California Nonfarm Employment Growth
California Employment Growth: August 2013
3-Month Moving Averages
8%
Expanding
Recovering
3-Month Annualized Percent Change (3MMA)
Santa Cruz
6%
Stockton
Vallejo
4%
Fresno
San Jose
Bakersfield
2%
Los Angeles
Modesto
Oakland
0%
Visalia
San Luis Obispo
Orange County
San Francisco
Oxnard
Santa Barbara
San Diego
Salinas
Sacramento
-2%
Population
3 Million+
1 - 3 Mil.
500 Thous. - 1 Mil.
300 - 500 Thous.
200 - 400 Thous.
Santa Rosa
Inland Empire
-4%
Merced
Decelerating
Contracting
-6%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Year-over-Year Percent Change
Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
15
4%
5%
California High-Tech Employment
California High-Tech Employment Growth
Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA, QCEW
Communications Equip. Manuf.
Other Device Manuf.
High-tech employment,
particularly in data processing,
internet, software and computer
design, has seen stronger growth
than the state overall
Recent research by Enrico
Moretti suggests that each
technology job creates five
additional jobs
March 2013
-11.7%
-8.1%
Semiconductor & Electronic Component Manuf.
-3.8%
Telecommunications
-2.3%
Architectural & Engineering Services
1.8%
Pharmaceuticals Manufacturing
2.0%
Scientific Research & Development
3.0%
Aerospace & Parts Manufacturing
3.6%
Computer & Peripheral Equip. Manuf.
4.9%
Software Publishers
5.7%
Computer Systems Design
5.9%
Internet Publishing, Broadcasting & Search Portals
17.0%
Data Processing
18.4%
California
-20%
3.0%
-10%
Source: U.S. Department of Laborand Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
16
0%
10%
20%
30%
California Per Capita Income
Per Capita Income
Thousands of Dollars, 2011
San Francisco
$74.0
San Jose
$61.0
Oakland
$52.7
Orange County
$50.4
San Diego
High incomes will help boost
local consumer spending
$46.8
California
$45.0
United States
$42.7
Los Angeles
$42.6
Sacramento
$40.7
Fresno
$31.5
Inland Empire
$30.0
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
$60
$70
$80
$90
California – Home Prices & Construction
With home prices improving, residential construction is gradually regaining strength
Home Prices
Housing Permits
California Housing Permits
Core Logic HPI: CA vs. U.S.
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
Thousands
30%
200
160
200
Single-Family: Aug @ 43,392
Single-Family, 12-MMA: Aug @ 34,298
Multifamily, 12-MMA: Aug @ 37,907
160
Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 109,729
120
0%
120
0%
-10%
-10%
-20%
-20%
80
80
40
40
United States: Sep @ 12.0%
California: Sep @ 22.5%
-30%
0
-30%
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: CoreLogic, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
0
90
12
18
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Thousands
Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Year-over-Year Percent Change
California – Home Prices & Construction
With the rapid rise in home prices and slight rise in mortgage rates earlier this year, housing
affordability has declined.
Mortgage Rates
Housing Affordability
30-Year Conventional Mortage Rates
C.A.R. Housing Affordability Index
Single-Family Homes
18%
18%
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
Historical Mortgage Rate
16%
16%
Current Rate: Nov @ 4.2%
14%
14%
12%
12%
10%
10%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
01
05
09
Housing Affordability: Q2 2013 @ 36
0
Source: FHFA, CAR and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
0
06
13
19
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Negative Equity by MSA
California Negative Equity by MSA
Percent of Mortgages Outstanding
Many coastal areas now have a
relatively low share of negative
equity mortgages outstanding,
while inland areas have taken
longer to recover
San Francisco
San Jose
Orange County
San Luis Obispo
Santa Cruz
Los Angeles
Oxnard
San Diego
Santa Rosa
Oakland
Santa Barbara
Sacramento
Salinas
Inland Empire
Stockton
Modesto
Fresno
Bakersfield
Vallejo
3.3%
6.6%
6.7%
7.5%
10.5%
11.4%
12.0%
13.7%
14.0%
15.7%
16.2%
18.1%
California
22.9%
24.8%
27.1%
27.4%
28.4%
28.6%
28.6%
15.4%
0%
5%
10%
Source: CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
As of Q2 2013
20
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Investor Purchases
Share of Investor Purchases - CoreLogic
Percent
Miami
30.4%
Phoenix
26.3%
Atlanta
23.7%
Charlotte
23.1%
Orlando
22.3%
Las Vegas
22.2%
Detroit
20.3%
Tampa
Investor purchases have helped
drive up prices
19.6%
Los Angeles
14.3%
Inland Empire
13.9%
Sacramento
13.0%
Chicago
10.7%
San Diego
10.3%
Warren
10.1%
Minneapolis-St. Paul
Oakland
0.0%
9.3%
10.0%
Source: CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
As of December 2012
8.4%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
California – Apartments
Apartment development has picked up, particularly in the Bay Area,
which has helped stem the slide in vacancy rates
San Francisco
Los Angeles
Los Angeles Apartment Supply & Demand
San Francisco Apartment Supply & Demand
Percent, Thousands of Units
Percent; Thousands of Units
7%
8%
1.5
Apartment Completions: Q3 @ 612 Units (Right Axis)
Apartment Net Absorption: Q3 @ 641 Units (Right Axis)
Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q3 @ 3.1% (Left Axis)
6%
8
Apartment Completions: Q3 @ 191 Units (Right Axis)
5%
0.5
4%
0.0
3%
Apartment Net Absorption: Q3 @ 619 Units (Right Axis)
7%
1.0
6
Apartment Vacancy Rate: Q3 @ 3.2% (Left Axis)
6%
4
5%
2
4%
0
3%
-2
2%
-4
-0.5
2%
-1.0
1%
1%
-1.5
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Reis, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
-6
2006
2013
22
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Issues to Watch
Manufacturing
Competitiveness
Credit Availability
& Financial Reform
Investor
Home Buying
Deleveraging
China Slowdown
Monetary/Fiscal
Policy Uncertainty
Energy/Commodity
Price Swings
Immigration Reform
Economic Outlook
23
Housing Forecast
National Housing Outlook
2008
Real GDP, percent change
Nonfarm Employment, percent change
Unemployment Rate
Home Construction
Total Housing Starts, in thousands
Single-Family Starts, in thousands
Multifamily Starts, in thousands
Home Sales
New Home Sales, Single-Family, in thousands
Total Existing Home Sales, in thousands
Existing Single-Family Home Sales, in thousands
Existing Condominium & Townhouse Sales, in thousands
Home Prices
Median New Home, $ Thousands
Percent Change
Median Existing Home, $ Thousands
Percent Change
FHFA (OFHEO) Home Price Index (Purch Only), Pct Chg
Case-Shiller C-10 Home Price Index, Percent Change
Interest Rates - Annual Averages
Prime Rate
Ten-Year Treasury Note
Conventional 30-Year Fixed Rate, Commitment Rate
One-Year ARM, Effective Rate, Commitment Rate
2009
2010
2011
2012
-0.3
-0.6
5.8
-2.8
-4.4
9.3
2.5
-0.7
9.6
1.8
1.2
8.9
2.8
1.7
8.1
905.5
622.0
283.5
553.9
445.0
108.9
586.9
471.1
115.8
608.8
430.5
178.3
780.6
535.3
245.3
2013
1.6
1.6
7.5
Forecast
2014
2015
2.2
1.6
7.0
930.0 1,100.0 1,250.0
645.0
780.0
910.0
285.0
320.0
340.0
485.0
374.0
321.0
305.0
369.0
440.0
535.0
625.0
4,110.0 4,340.0 4,190.0 4,260.0 4,650.0 5,100.0 5,300.0 5,480.0
3,660.0 3,870.0 3,708.0 3,787.0 4,127.0 4,500.0 4,680.0 4,840.0
450.0
464.0
474.0
477.0
528.0
600.0
620.0
640.0
232.1
-6.4
198.1
-9.5
-7.7
-16.7
216.7
-6.6
172.5
-12.9
-5.6
-12.9
221.8
2.4
172.9
0.2
-3.0
2.1
227.2
2.4
166.1
-3.9
-4.2
-3.5
245.2
7.9
176.6
6.3
3.4
0.3
262.0
6.9
196.0
11.0
8.0
11.8
270.0
3.1
202.0
3.1
4.0
8.1
278.0
3.0
207.5
2.7
2.7
3.2
4.88
3.66
6.04
5.18
3.25
3.26
5.04
4.71
3.25
3.22
4.69
3.79
3.25
2.78
4.46
3.03
3.25
1.80
3.66
2.77
3.25
2.41
4.11
2.80
3.25
2.85
4.55
3.20
3.25
3.25
4.95
3.40
Forecast as of: November 1, 2013
Source: Federal Reserve Board, FHFA, MBA, NAR, S&P, U.S. Department of C ommerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
2.6
1.7
6.7
24
Our Forecast
Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast
Actual
2013
Real Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption
Inflation Indicators
PCE Deflator
1
Actual
2011
2012
Forecast
2013
2014
2015
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1.1
2.5
2.8
1.7
2.0
2.4
2.6
2.7
1.8
2.8
1.7
2.3
2.8
2.3
1.8
1.5
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.2
1.9
2.0
2.4
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.9
1.9
2.1
2.4
1.8
1.2
1.8
2.2
1.7
1.4
1.6
1.5
1.6
2.1
2.0
2.0
3.1
2.1
1.5
1.9
2.2
4.1
1.1
2.3
5.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
3.4
3.6
2.5
4.0
4.7
2
Consumer Price Index
Industrial Production
1
Corporate Profits Before Taxes
Trade Weighted Dollar Index
Unemployment Rate
Housing Starts
Forecast
2014
2
3
4
Quarter-End Interest Rates 5
Federal Funds Target Rate
2.1
4.5
6.3
5.0
4.1
5.4
6.2
5.3
7.9
7.0
4.5
5.3
5.9
76.2
77.5
75.2
75.3
76.0
76.3
76.8
77.3
70.9
73.5
76.1
76.6
77.9
7.7
7.6
7.3
7.2
7.1
7.0
7.0
6.9
8.9
8.1
7.5
7.0
6.7
0.96
0.87
0.89
0.94
1.03
1.13
1.18
1.20
0.61
0.78
0.93
1.10
1.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.44
Conventional Mortgage Rate
3.57
4.07
4.49
4.30
4.40
4.50
4.60
4.70
4.46
3.66
4.11
4.55
4.95
10 Year Note
1.87
2.52
2.64
2.60
2.70
2.80
2.90
3.00
2.78
1.80
2.41
2.85
3.25
Forecast as of: November 8, 2013
1
C ompound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter
2
Year-over-Year Percentage C hange
3
Federal Reserve Major C urrency Index, 1973=100 - Quarter End
4
Millions of Units
5
Annual Numbers Represent Averages
Economic Outlook
25
Appendix
Wells Fargo Economics Group Publications
A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary
Recent Special Commentary
Title
Date
To view any of our past research
please visit:
http://www.wellsfargo.com/
economics
To join any of our research
distribution lists please visit:
http://www.wellsfargo.com/
economicsemail
Economic Outlook
Authors
October-16
October-16
October-16
October-14
October-09
October-07
October-03
October-03
October-02
October-02
October-02
October-02
October-01
October-01
October-01
Short-Run Disruption, Long-Run Imbalance
Is There Pent-Up Demand for Consumer Durables?
Household Debt Service Ratio: New Lows, Less Stress
Singapore GDP Stronger Than Expected in Q3
The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy: Part II
The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy: Part I
Asheville's Recovery Remains Solidly on Track
How Does North Carolina Stack Up Today?
Abenomics Getting Warm Reception from Japanese Business
Naples Four Years After the Recession
Housing Chartbook: September 2013
Will British Consumers Continue to Spend?
Bank Lending: A Perspective on Credit
Corporate Credit: Bond Finance and Power in Reserve
Shutdown Showdown: Deficit Remains the Issue
Silvia & Brown
Bryson, Aleman & Brown
Silvia & Miller
Bryson
Silvia, Brown & Zachary
Silvia & Brown
Vitner & Wolf
Silvia, Brown & Griffiths
Quinlan
Vitner & Wolf
Vitner, Khan & Silverman
Bryson & Miller
Silvia & Watt
Silvia & Zachary
Silvia & Brown
September-27
September-27
September-27
September-26
September-25
September-25
September-25
September-24
September-23
September-20
September-20
September-20
September-20
September-17
September-18
September-17
September-12
September-11
September-11
September-11
September-10
September-04
September-03
September-03
September-03
Mexico: Tidbits of Better Times Ahead?
Strong Growth in Argentina in Q2 2013
Sequestering Economic Growth?
Why Has U.S. Labor Productivity Growth Slowed?
South Carolina 2013 Economic Outlook
Interest Rate Update: Post the Big Non-Taper
Consumer Credit: Critical Differences in Consumer Behavior
Florida Consumer Sentiment Falls Back in September
Does China Have a Debt Problem?
California Adds 29,100 Jobs, but Unemployment Rises Again
Florida's Jobless Rate Falls, but so Does the Labor Force
British Economy Appears to Be Turning the Corner
Texas Employment Takes a Step Back
Russian Economy Struggles to Grow
FOMC: Surprise-No Taper, Weaker Outlook for Growth
Chicago's Recovery Is Well Under Way
FDIC Loan Performance: Cyclical Improvement
Las Vegas' Housing Recovery Built on Nontraditional Buyers
Turkish GDP Growth Strengthened in Q2
Brazilian Economy Surprises in Q2 2013
Texas Economic Outlook: September 2013
Is the Eurozone Economy Starting to Thaw?
Implications of Slower Inflation in South Korea
Midyear Consumer Sepnding Outlook
Swiss Economy Continues to Chug Along
Aleman
Aleman
Silvia & Brown
Bryson & Watt
Vitner & Silverman
Silvia & Zachary
Silvia & Miller
Vitner & Silverman
Bryson
Vitner & Silverman
Vitner & Silverman
Bryson
Vitner & Wolf
Aleman
Silvia
Vitner & Silverman
Silvia, Watt & Zachary
Vitner & Silverman
Bryson
Aleman
Vitner & Wolf
Bryson
Quinlan
Aleman & Brown
Bryson
27
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group
Global Head of Research and Economics
Economists
Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………………………[email protected]
Diane Schumaker-Krieg
………………… …[email protected]
Global Head of Research & Economics
……
Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………………………[email protected]
Michael A. Brown, Economist ………………… [email protected]
Chief Economist
John E. Silvia …
...................... …
[email protected]
.
.
Michael T. Wolf, Economist
……………………
Zachary Griffiths, Economic Analyst
[email protected]
Sara Silverman, Economic Analyst
Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist …………………....………[email protected]
Sam Bullard, Senior Economist
…………………………… [email protected]
.
[email protected]
Economic Analysts
Senior Economists
Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. .
Sarah Watt, Economist
Mackenzie Miller, Economic Analyst
[email protected]
Blaire Zachary, Economic Analyst
Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategist ……[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Administrative Assistants
Eugenio J. Alemán, Senior Economist………………[email protected]
Peg Gavin, Executive Assistant.
Anika R. Khan, Senior Economist …
Cyndi Burris, Senior Administrative Assistant
. [email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
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Economic Outlook
28