Transcript The Road to the Whitehouse

The Road to the
Whitehouse
Is this Any Way to Elect a President?
Nominating a Candidate
• The primary task of political
parties is nominating a
presidential candidate.
• Through most of our political
history parties have kept this
out of the hands of voters
• The process has evolved from
the party bosses selecting
nominees at the national
convention to a more
democratic primary system.
Nominating Methods
• Caucuses: Private meeting of party leaders. Caucuses
are considered undemocratic. Today Republicans and
Democrats in Iowa still hold a caucus to nominate a
presidential candidates. However they are open to
public scrutiny.
• Nominating Conventions replaced caucuses. Nominating
conventions held at county level select delegates for
the state convention, who in turn picked delegates for
the national convention, who then nominate a
candidate. This system fell under the control of party
bosses.
Nominating Methods
• Primary elections have replaced nominating conventions
in 46 states.
• Primary elections are managed by States. Voters select
a party nominee to run in the general election.
• Closed Primaries allow only members of a political party
to pick their candidate. Ex. Dems pick the Dem party
candidate.
• Open Primaries allow anyone to participate, but they can
only vote on one presidential candidate.
• Closed primaries are designed to prevent crossover
voting. Ex. Democrats voting for a weak Republican
candidate.
• In most primaries one only needs to win a plurality of
votes (i.e. the most not a majority)
The Road to the Whitehouse 2016
1) Test the waters, make announcement (Summer
2014)
2) File with FEC, raise money
3) Campaign to win delegates in party primary
elections (Winter –Spring 2015)
4) National Party Convention. Get the nomination.
5) Campaign in the General Election. Win!
6) Inauguration
7) Become president, regret winning for the
next four years while preparing to run for
reelection.
Test the Waters
• Candidates must determine if they can win the
party nomination, then the presidential election.
• Do you have a reason to run?
• Is the candidate’s party interested?
• Is the family ready for the media scrutiny, and
life on the campaign trail?
• Are there skeletons in your closet?
• Can you raise enough money to wage a media
campaign?
• Can you build a campaign staff?
Announce your Candidacy for the
Party Nomination
• About a 18 months
before the general
election
• Media event, symbolic
backgrounds, family,
happy supporters.
• Slogan/message
• Website
• Raise money!
Run for the Party Nomination
• Party primaries and caucuses are the
race to win delegates to party national
convention who will select the party’s
nominee for the general election.
• Candidates formulate a message that
appeals to “the party base” (loyalist) and
also reaches out to moderate voters.
Run for the Party Nomination
• Big mo’! The party primaries are a horse race.
The media focuses on missteps and reports on
who is in the lead.
• Do well in the Iowa Caucus = media coverage =
raise more money. (January 2016)
• Next, show well in the New Hampshire Primary.
(February 2016)
• Frontrunners surge, losers start dropping out of
the race (April 2016)
• North Carolina, California, Super Tuesday
• Each primary and caucus victory wins delegates
to the national convention
The Party Convention
• Each party holds a
nominating convention
in August before the
general election.
• The convention is a
giant political party pep
rally full of speeches
aimed at getting
delegates fired up for
the general election.
The Party Convention
• The candidate who wins the greatest number of
delegates in the series of primaries and
caucuses will receive the party nomination.
• The primary function of the convention is
formally nominate and announce the party ticket.
• The convention also: hosts workshops on
mobilizing support for the nominee, allows
candidates to publicly make up for all the bad
things they said during the primaries, adopt the
party platform, etc.
The General Election
• After each party has nominated a
candidate the general election begins.
• Traditionally presidential candidates do not
begin to campaign against each other until
the Labor Day weekend. But…
• After the national convention the campaign
staff focuses on an electoral strategy to
win the 270 votes required to win the
presidency.
The General Election
• After each party has
nominated a candidate the
general election begins.
• Traditionally presidential
candidates do not begin to
campaign against each
other until the Labor Day
weekend. But…
• After the national
convention the campaign
staff focuses on an electoral
strategy to win the 270
votes required to win the
presidency.
Win 270 Electoral Votes
See Candidate Run,
Run Candidate Run!
• Give stump speech 1,000 times.
• Tape ads, tape more ads responding to your
opponent’s ads
• Stay on message.
• Raise money.
• Avoid missteps- the media is always watching.
• Get the base fired up.
• Appeal to swing voters- moderate stump speech
• Focus on battleground states- ex: Ohio,
Pennsylvania, Michigan.
Raise Money!
• Campaigns are expensive. Why?
• Obama and Romney spent over 1 billion
on the 2012 presidential race.
• Money comes from individual donations,
and from interest groups (Political Action
Committees).
• Candidates in federal elections must file
with the Federal Election Commission.
Campaign Finance Laws
• The FEC limits individual donations to
candidates.
• Loopholes allow donors to give without limit to a
political party (wink, wink) this is known a soft
money. The McCain-Feingold Act limits these
donations from wealthy donors, corporations,
labor unions and PACs
• Led to the creation of 527 organizations
ex. Move On and Swift Boat Veterans
• Candidates must file quarterly disclosure reports
that list who contributed, how much, and how
contributions were spent.
• What happens if you don’t file with the FEC?
The Original System
• The Framers originally wanted the
Congress to select a president.
• Article II, Section 1 establishes the
Electoral College
• The Constitution allows each State to
select electors in its own way
• Until 1828 electors voted independently,
electoral votes were not tied to a popular
vote
The Original System
• After losing the election of
1824, Andrew Jackson tried
to get Congress to propose a
Constitutional Amendment to
abolish the Electoral College
in favor of direct popular
election
• He did manage to have the
Electoral Vote “tied” to the
popular vote. This reform
remains in effect today.
Electoral System
• Election Day- we vote on a presidential
candidate (actually a slate of electors pledged to
the candidate).
• The candidate who wins the popular vote in a
State wins all of the state’s electoral votes
(except Nebraska and Maine)
• Mon. after the second Weds in Dec. electors
meet in their state capitols and cast their vote for
president and vice president
• January 6th, Congress counts electoral votes.
• January 20th, president-elect is sworn into office.
Electoral College Issues
Electoral College Issues
• Winner-take-all:
– Created four elections in which the candidate who
won popular vote, lost the electoral vote and thus the
presidency.
– Sense of disenfranchisement for the 3.5 million
Florida voters that picked Kerry in 2004.
• Third Party Mathematics:
– Strong third candidate could win a state making it
mathematically impossible for any candidate to win
270 electoral votes.
• House problems:
Electoral Reform
• Allocating a State’s electoral votes
proportionally based on the percentage of
the popular vote. Ex. Alabama’s 9 would
be divided 5 Bush (60%) and 4 Kerry
(40%).
• Direct popular election? Whoa!