Transcript Slide 1

Enrollment Projecting
The Magic of Modeling and Deposits
Rachel Morris
Data & Reporting Coordinator
Missouri University of Science and Technology
[email protected]
Overview
•Who are we
•Institutional Goals
•KPI’s (Key Performance Indicators)
•Benchmarks
•Enrollment Projections
•Assessment
Guidelines for forecasting enrollment
1. Establish timeline with upper-level managers;
on-going communication
2. Determine critical benchmarks & track progress
towards goals at specific points in time
3. Know where opportunities exist to adjust strategy
4. Build trend lines for key performance indicators
5. Refine models overtime
Know Your Profile
A Top Technological Research University
1.
We’re one of America’s top
technological research universities.
2.
Our students get great jobs
at great salaries.
3.
Our students graduate with the
ability to address real-world problems.
4.
We’re one of America’s
“30 safest campuses.”
5.
S&T is one of the top 10
“best value” national public universities.
What is a “Technological
Research University?”
A university with…
 At least 25% of students studying engineering
 A majority of students studying mathematics, engineering,
science, business and computing
 A robust graduate program
 Strong research culture
 Exceptional liberal arts, humanities and social science degree
programs that complement the technological strengths of the
university
America’s Technological
Research Universities
WPI
Rensselaer
Michigan Tech
Clarkson
MIT
SD Mines
Illinois
Tech
Colorado Mines
New Jersey
Tech
Missouri S&T
Cal
Tech
New Mexico
Mining & Tech
Stevens
Tech
U of A Huntsville
Georgia
Tech
Florida
Tech
Degree Programs
+60 Degree
Programs
34 BS/BA
MBA/MST
29 MS/ME
20 PhD
Learn More
degrees.mst.edu
 Applied Math
 Engineering:
1. Aerospace
 Biological Sciences
2. Architectural
& Pre-Med
3. Ceramic
 Business
4. Chemical
 Chemistry
5. Civil
6. Computer
 Computer Science
7. Electrical
 Economics
8. Engineering Management
 English
9. Environmental
 Geology & Geophysics
10. Explosives*
11. Geological
 History & Philosophy
12. Manufacturing*
 Information Science &
13. Mechanical
Technology
14. Metallurgical
 Physics
15. Mining
16. Nuclear
 Psychology
17. Petroleum
 Materials Science*
18. Systems*
 Technical
*Masters degree only
Communication
Missouri S&T: 90% engineering,
science and computing majors
19th in Nation for Largest Undergraduate Engineering Enrollment
17th in Nation for Number of Engineering Degrees Granted to African-Americans
19th in Nation for Number of BS Engineering Degrees Granted
3%
13%
Engineering
3%
Business & IST
5%
Arts & Social Sciences
76%
Science & Computing
Non-Degree &
Undecided
Miners’ Fall 2010 Stats
Breaking National Trends
TOTAL Enrollment
7,206
 Undergraduate students
5,504
 Graduate students
1,702
 New freshman class
1,170
 New transfer class
388
Students’ Home States
Fall 2010
43
3
4
2
8
3
20
4
2
20
29
36
4
459
29
128
34
28
12
3
4,901
56
5
20
7
125
6
16
25
Total Enrollment
 48 states & 51 nations
8
24
1
1
12
54
7
4
DC
12
18
19
4
22
3
41
17
4
22
20
2
 70% Missouri residents
 10% minority students
 9% international students
Unofficial data until after 4th week census
Enrollment diversity
1391
1,400
1419
35% increase in Female Students
86% increase in Minority Students
1,326
1,248
1,200
1,209 1,224
1,133
1,097
1,000
1,050
Total Minorities, NonCaucasian US Citizens
800
655
600 641
600
508
456
542
483
414
400
377
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
200
Female
International Student Enrollment
1,000
960
950
900
850
819
800
750
674
700
650
600
565
585
619
550
500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Undergraduate demographics and
psychographics





Average Age: 21.6 years old
Gender:
 23% Female
 77% Male
First Generation College Students:
 2005-06: 37%
Residency:
 Missouri Residents: 76%
 Out-State Students: 22%
 International: 2%
Ethnicity:
 African-American: 4%
 Asian-American: 3%
 Caucasian: 83%
 Hispanic: 2%
 Native-American: 1%
 Non-resident, International: 2%
 Not Disclosed: 5%







From a Community <40,000: 45% approx.
Average Family Income: $82,000
Average Indebtedness at Graduation:
 $23,500 USD approx.
High Financial Need (Pell qualifier): 24%
Freshmen with Credit Cards:
 24%
 6 arrive with over $1000 USD standing
balance
Students with PCs:
 94%
 +70% laptops
 7% Macs
Students with Cell Phones
 97%
35% increase in test senders with family
incomes of $60,000+
SOURCE: ACT AIM, 2008
Demographics Can Impact
Historical Models
An ideal Missouri S&T freshman class
1050 to 1150 students with the following profile:
Academic Preparedness:
27 average ACT score (upper 10% in nation)
90% having completed the full Missouri college-prep curriculum
50% from the upper 20% of high school class
Geography: 70% in-state 25% out-of-state 5% international
Gender:
30% female 70% male
Ethnicity:
13% under-represented minority students
Majors:
70% Engineering (all programs)
5% Liberal Arts (psychology, history, English, technical communication, philosophy)
8% Business, Information Technology and Economics
9% Natural Sciences and Mathematics (biology, chemistry, physics)
8% Computer Science
Success Rate: 90% first to second year retention rate
80% return for third year
65-70% graduate in six years
Challenge: changes in the college-bound
student markets

The Midwest and Northeast will experience a 4% to 10% decline in high
school graduates between 2009 – 2014 (WICHE)

The profile of college-bound students is rapidly becoming more
ethnically diverse and female dominant (NCES, WICHE, ACT, College
Board)

The number of students interested in engineering, computer science,
and natural science degrees has declined to record lows (ACT, CIRP)

More full-time college freshmen are choosing to start at two-year
colleges (IPED, MODHE)

More students are enrolling in more than one college at a time
(National Student Clearinghouse)

Future student market growth will include more students requiring
financial aid and loans to complete a degree (WICHE)
The Trends are Diverse: Regions within Regions
College-going rates, 2006
Projected change in high school
graduates 2007-2017
+1
-15
-17
-23
-3
+4
+13
-14
-6
-8
+27
-5
+27
+21
-12
-6
-2
+53
-12
-6
-6
-2 +10
+1
+1
-8
+16
-3
-6
+1
+14
+1
+2
-1
+2
-7
0
0
+22
> 20%
+11% to +20%
+10
-9
-19
-14
-8
-6
-6
-3
-4
+9
-31
0% to +10%
Decreases
-14
Source: Chronicle of Higher Education Almanac 2006-07
National vs. regional trends
WICHE, 2008
% change in Missouri population
by county 2000-2008
Missouri
Average = 5.6%
-14.4% - -0.1%
0% - 4.9%
5% - 9.9%
10% - 19.9%
20% - 39%
Source: USDA, Bureau of the Census
Published by: University of Missouri Extension, April 2 2009
By 2012, Missouri will have 4,000 fewer
HS graduates each year
Guidelines for forecasting enrollment
 Establish timeline with upper-level managers; ongoing communication
 Determine critical benchmarks & track progress
towards goals at specific points in time
 Know where opportunities exist to adjust strategy
 Build trend lines for key performance indicators
 Refine models overtime
Basic Enrollment Funnel
How We Use the Funnel






Goal setting tool based on previous performance and
benchmarks
Tool for building enrollment budgets
Primary dashboard indicators for In-cycle assessments
of recruitment progress and projecting enrollments
Tool to measure effectiveness of activities along the
matriculation path
Ability to determine market share
Tool to better focusing communications and messaging
How S&T Tracks Progress
Percent of ACT Tested College Freshmen
Who Selected an Engineering Major
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Percent 8.5% 8.6% 8.3% 7.9% 7.5% 7.2% 7.1% 7.1% 7.0% 6.4% 5.7% 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 4.9% 3.5% 3.3% 4.2% 4.7%
Missouri’s 2010 Student Funnel for All
Engineering Fields





High School Seniors:
High School Graduates:
ACT Testers/College Bound:
Any Engineering Interest (all testers):
Any Engineering Interest, (+21 testers):
74,681
64,009
48,290
1,836
1,299
(21 = MO average score / 50%)
 Engineering Interest, +24 comp. score:
969
(24 = UM minimum for auto admission)
 Missouri S&T Freshmen Engineering
Enrollees:
SOURCES: MODESE 2011, ACT EIS 2010, PeopleSoft
721
Domestic Overall Freshmen Enrollment Yield
Funnel FS2005-FS2010
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Inquiries
8361
8456
9629
11427
11514
11510
Applicants
1898
1984
2305
2260
2515
2693
Admits
1809
1870
2154
2088
2343
2479
Enrollees
865
950
1040
1031
1105
1155
% Admits Enrolled
48%
51%
48%
49%
47%
47%
% Inquiries Enrolled
10%
11%
11%
9%
10%
10%
Domestic Freshmen from Missouri
Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS2010
Inquiries
Applicants
Admits
Enrollees
% Admits Enrolled
% Inquiries Enrolled
2005
4764
1339
1020
703
69%
15%
2006
5061
1397
1310
767
2007
6247
1641
1511
822
2008
6325
1583
1461
835
2009
5658
1791
1665
899
2010
6053
1912
1762
931
58.5% 54%
15% 13%
57%
13%
54%
16%
53%
15%
Domestic Freshmen Online Application
Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS2010
Applicants
Admits
Enrollees
2005
N/A
N/A
N/A
% Admits Enrolled
N/A
2006
995
950
423
2007
1276
1213
550
2008
1404
1304
591
2009
1823
1700
771
2010
2170
2017
918
44.5% 45%
45%
45%
45%
Domestic Freshmen Paper Application
Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS2010
Applicants
Admits
Enrollees
2005
N/A
N/A
N/A
2006
988
919
527
2007
1029
941
490
2008
859
787
440
2009
692
643
335
2010
523
462
237
% Admits Enrolled
N/A
57%
52%
56%
52%
51%
FS2010 First Time College Freshmen Funnel
FS2010 FTC Enrolled
FS2010 FTC Admit
FS2010 FTC Applicants
FS2010 FTC Inquiries
FS2010 First Time College Freshmen Funnel
FS2010 FTC Enrolled
FS2010 FTC Admit
FS2010 FTC Applicants
FS2010 FTC Inquiries
FS2010 First Time College Missouri Freshmen
FS2010 FTC Enrolled
FS2010 FTC Admit
FS2010 FTC Applicants
FS2010 FTC Inquiries
FS2010 First Time College
St. Louis Area Freshmen
FS2010 FTC Enrolled
FS2010 FTC Admit
FS2010 FTC Applicants
FS2010 FTC Inquiries
FS2010 First Time College
Kansas City Area Freshmen
FS2010 FTC Enrolled
FS2010 FTC Admit
FS2010 FTC Applicants
FS2010 FTC Inquiries
FS2010 First Time College
Chicago Area Freshmen
FS2010 FTC Enrolled
FS2010 FTC Admit
FS2010 FTC Applicants
FS2010 FTC Inquiries
FS2010 First Time College
Dallas Area Freshmen
FS2010 FTC Enrolled
FS2010 FTC Admit
FS2010 FTC Applicants
FS2010 FTC Inquiries
13% (+375) increase in FAFSA submissions over AY09
25% (+641) increase in FAFAS submissions over AY07
Getting Started
Where to Begin?
1. Determine critical information needed and begin
data collection
Understand your student population and know your data
2. Verify data quality
accurate, complete, shared definition & metrics
3. Identify key benchmarks
points in time when data must be gathered and compared to build
historical trends
4. Holistic approach to data management
requires buy-in from “data managers” (create / manage data)
5. Build baseline year
assess effectiveness and refine over time
Factor Analysis Defined
 Factor analysis is a statistical method used to
describe variability among observed variables in
terms of a potentially lower number of unobserved
variables called factors.
 Factor analysis searches for joint variations in
responses to unobserved latent variables.
 The information gained about the
interdependencies between observed variables
can be used later to reduce the set of variables in a
dataset.
6 month projection for freshmen fall
enrollment (1 of 7 best factors)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Gender
Geographic Origin
Degree Program
Application Type
Academic Profile/Scholarship
 ACT Composite Score
 HS GPA
 HS Class Rank
6. Overall/Combination Fall 2010 99.1% accurate
Adjusted Projection: 1,161
Opening Week: 1,171
4th Week Census: 1,070
Factor Analysis is Key
 Originated in psychometrics, and is used
in behavioral sciences, social sciences,
marketing, product management,
operations research, and other applied
sciences that deal with large quantities
of data.
Enrollment Yields and Predictions by Gender and State Residency
For First Time College (FTC)
FS2007
Admits as of
Enrolled
%Enrolled
FS05/FS06/FS
07
FTC
2/22/2007
1965
1028
52.30%
M
F
U
1527
436
2
820
208
53.70%
47.70%
1028
795
59.30%
84
43.70%
149
34.50%
1028
Enrollment Yields and Predictions By Schools
MO
IL
OOS
1341
192
432
FS2007
Admits as of
Enrolled
%Yield
2/21/2007
328
158
48.20%
1574
834
53.00%
50
28
56.00%
13
8
61.50%
1965
1028
Enrollment Yields and Predictions by Scholarships
CAS
SOE
SMIS
SOMEER
FS2007
Admits as of
Enrolled
%Yield
Enrolled Ave
FS05 & FS06 &
FS07
947.3
%Enrolled
FS2008
FTC
Admits as of
2/21/2005 & 06
&07
1760.7
53.80%
FTC
2/21/2008
1959
M
F
U
1386.3
373.3
1
749.7
197.7
0
54.10%
53.00%
M
F
U
1491
465
3
MO
IL
OOS
1213
184.6
424
747.3
75
125
61.60%
40.60%
29.50%
MO
IL
OOS
1343
223
393
Admits as of
2/21/2005 & 06
&07
296.7
1410
44.7
9.3
Enrolled Ave
FS05 & FS06 &
FS07
146
771
24.7
5.7
% Yield
FS2008
49.2%
54.7%
55.2%
61.2%
CAS
SOE
SMIS
SOMEER
Admits as of
2/21/2005 & 06
&07
Enrolled Ave
FS05 & FS06 &
FS07
% Yield
FS2008
FS05/FS06/FS
07
CAS
SOE
SMIS
SOMEER
FS05/FS06/FS
07
2/21/2007
No GO
Scholarship
100
110
111
115
120
125
130
150
160
634
N/A
458
16
N/A
54
N/A
13
421
369
1965
395
N/A
211
14
N/A
23
N/A
8
204
173
1028
*Departmental Scholarships not included
**Average % for 1st year scholar index
Ave of 4 Projections for FS2008
Total:
1049
62.30%
N/A
46.10%
87.50%
N/A
42.60%
N/A
61.50%
48.50%
46.90%
Ave:56.4%
No GO
Scholarship
100
110
111
115
120
125
130
150
160
545.7
N/A
388
18.3
N/A
61
N/A
13.3
392
342
353.3
180.3
15.3
32
8.7
196.3
161.3
Admits as of FS08 Projected Yield
64.70%
**58%
46.50%
83.60%
**58%
52.40%
**58%
65.40%
50.00%
47.20%
Ave: 58%
806
245
0
1051
827
90
116
1033
Admits as of FS08 Projected Yield
2/21/2008
315
1593
39
12
(Admits X %Yield)
155
871
21
7
1054
Admits as of FS08 Projected Yield
2/21/2008
No GO
Scholarship
100
110
111
115
120
125
130
150
160
(Admits X %Yield)
1053
627
17
401
0
74
51
11
6
422
350
(Admits X %Yield)
405
10
186
0
43
27
6
4
211
165
1057
Are Linear Models Accurate?
 YES – if there are limited alterations in the
variable factors (see the profile and
demographics noted before).
 Current S&T model has predicted the final fall
freshman class enrollment within 2% since
2005.
 Best to re-assess the factor analysis every 5
years.
Enrollment Projecting
The Magic of Modeling and Deposits
Rachel Morris
Data & Reporting Coordinator
Missouri University of Science and Technology
[email protected]