Transcript Long-Term Trends in Food Security: Africa’s Coming Turnaround

Africa’s Turn
How demography, policy and technology
are transforming life prospects for
African women and children
William A. Masters
Department of Food and Nutrition Policy, Tufts University
www.nutrition.tufts.edu · sites.tufts.edu/willmasters
COSBAE / CWAE Luncheon
at the AAEA Annual Meetings in Seattle
23 August 2012
What’s behind the headlines?
Africa’s poverty rates rose only recently,
and turned down over the past decade
Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/),
updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries,
and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.
There are limited data and wide variation
but many signs of improvement
The available surveys show
widespread poverty reduction …but not everywhere!
Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank (2011), PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/),
updated 11 April 2011. Estimates are based on over 700 household surveys from more than 120 countries,
and refer to per-capita expenditure at purchasing-power parity prices for 2005.
Child nutrition has also begun to improve
in some African countries
National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years)
Selected countries with repeated national surveys
Somalia is an
exception, its
malnutrition
worsened
before the
2011 famine
Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at
http://www.unscn.org.
...although undernutrition levels and trends
still vary widely across Africa
National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years)
Selected countries with repeated national surveys
The Sahel remains
a danger zone
Some countries
are doing very well
Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at
http://www.unscn.org.
Extreme under-nutrition occurs in infancy
and is less bad in Africa than in Asia
Mean weight-for-height z-scores in 54 countries, 1994-2007, by region (1-59 mo.)
Despite Africa’s greater poverty,
Asian infants remain more malnourished
Weight loss relative to height occurs when
breastfeeding becomes insufficient, but
infants cannot yet rely on the family diet
Source: CG Victora, M de Onis, PC Hallal, M Blössner and R Shrimpton, “Worldwide timing of
growth faltering: revisiting implications for interventions.” Pediatrics, 125(3, Mar. 2010):e473-80.
In Asia, where undernutrition was worst,
we’ve seen >20 years of improvement
National trends in prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years)
Selected countries with repeated national surveys
Source: UN SCN. Sixth Report on the World Nutrition Situation. Released October 2010, at
http://www.unscn.org.
Life expectancy at birth helps track
lifelong prospects & living conditions
UN estimates of life expectancy at birth by sex and region, 1950-2010
Years
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Female - World
Male - World
Female - SoAsia
Male - SoAsia
Female - SSAfrica
Male - SSAfrica
Africa has now resumed rapid progress,
but faster for males than females
(unlike South Asia, whose
gender gap has normalized)
Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), accessed 11 Aug 2012,
based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision.
Life expectancy at birth also helps track
change in gender relations
Difference in life expectancy at birth by region (F-M), 1950-2010
Years
5 – Male)
(Female
4
World
SSAfrica
SoAsia
3
2
By this measure,
South Asia now has
less sex discrimination
than Sub-Saharan Africa!
1
0
-1
Below zero =
Boys live longer than girls
-2
Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), accessed 11 Aug 2012,
based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision.
One gender-relations puzzle is the
high fertility rate of African women >25
Age-specific fertility by region, 1995-2010 (births per 1,000 women)
300
African fertility could fall very fast if
its >25-year-olds become like Asia’s
250
SSAfrica 1995-2000
SSAfrica 2000-2005
200
SSAfrica 2005-2010
S Asia 1995-2000
150
S Asia 2000-2005
100
S Asia 2005-2010
World 1995-2000
50
World 2000-2005
World 2005-2010
0
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), accessed 11 Aug 2012,
based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision.
The high level and slow fall of fertility rates,
given a child-survival baby boom,
created Africa’s huge demographic burden
Child and elderly dependency rates by region (0-15 and 65+), 1950-2030
Africa had the world’s most severe
demographic burden by far, over 90
dependents per 100 adults for 25 years
100
90
…now still high but falling fast
(a "demographic gift")
80
70
2012
60
World
SSAfrica
SoAsia
50
40
Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp),
accessed 11 Aug 2012, based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (April 2011).
Africa’s demography was hard on farmers,
but the burden is getting lighter
UN estimates of rural population growth rates by region, 1950-2050
2.5
Was over 2% annual growth for 25 years!
2.0
…now still high but falling fast
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
Below zero=more land/farmer
2012
SS Africa
World
So Asia
-1.5
Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), accessed 11 Aug 2012,
based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision.
An underlying cause of Africa’s
impoverishment in the 1970s-1990s
was a sharp fall in land area per farmer
Land available per farm household (hectares)
Reprinted from Robert Eastwood, Michael Lipton and Andrew Newell (2010), “Farm Size”, chapter 65 in Prabhu
Pingali and Robert Evenson, eds., Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Volume 4, Pages 3323-3397. Elsevier.
Africa’s green revolution is
at least 20 years behind Asia’s
Source: Reprinted from W.A. Masters, “Paying for Prosperity: How and Why to Invest in Agricultural Research and
Development in Africa” (2005), Journal of International Affairs, 58(2): 35-64.
Africa’s green revolution has begun
USDA estimates of average cereal grain yields (mt/ha), 1961-2012
3.5
3
2.5
World
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
2
1.5
1
0.5
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Calculated from USDA , PS&D data (www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline), downloaded 9 Aug. 2012. Results shown are each
region’s total production per harvested area in barley, corn, millet, mixed grains, oats, rice, rye, sorghum and wheat.
Foreign aid for agriculture has begun to
recover after being sharply cut in 1985-99
United States ODA commitments for health, agriculture and total, 1967-2010
6
5
4
35
Agriculture
Health
Total (right axis)
30
25
20
3
15
2
10
1
5
0
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Calculated from OECD (2012), Official Bilateral Commitments by Sector, downloaded 8 August 2012
(http://stats.oecd.org/qwids). Agriculture includes forestry and fisheries. Values are billions of constant US
dollars at 2010 prices (both axes).
Many African governments are now
focusing more on agriculture
Slide is courtesy of Prabhu Pingali, Greg Traxler and Tuu-Van Nguyen (2011), “Changing Trends in the Demand
and Supply of Aid for Agriculture Development and the Quest for Coordination,” at the AAEA, July 24–26, 2011.
Africa’s challenges are extremely diverse
…and rapidly changing
Conclusion: it is now
Africa’s turn to succeed
• African poverty worsened but is now improving
– A major cause was persistent high fertility despite child survival gains,
and hence falling land available per farmer;
– Appropriate new farm technologies are finally arriving, so crop yields,
output and input use are now rising
• Investment in agriculture and nutrition was cut to near zero,
but is now being restored
– Investment in agriculture was key to cutting Asian poverty, then seen
as no longer needed for Africa in the 1980s and 1990s;
– Africa is now poised for rapid uptake of new technologies, with many
opportunities for sustained improvements
• “Africa” is 55 countries, with many diverse challenges, but
the odds of success are good
Thank you!
www.nutrition.tufts.edu · sites.tufts.edu/willmasters
What drives change?
Development outcomes
Everything
is interconnected
Technological change
Urbanization eventually employs all new
workers so land per farmer can rise
Sub-Saharan Africa
1.8
8
Total
1.6
Total
7
Urban
1.4
Urban
1.2
0.4
Africa still has both
rural & urban growth
0.2
0.0
2000
2050
2040
2030
2020
1990
1980
1970
1960
0
1950
1
2010
Worldwide, rural
population growth
has almost stopped
2
Source: Calculated from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Revision , released April 2010 at
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup. Downloaded 7 Nov. 2010.
2050
0.6
2040
3
2030
0.8
Rural
2020
4
2012
2010
1.0
1970
Rural
5
1960
2012
1950
6
1990
World (total)
9
2.0
1980
Billions
10
2000
Billions
…in Africa that won’t happen
until
the
2050s
Population by principal residence, 1950-2050