Transcript PowerPoint-presentation

More possibilities for CHP/DH in
the European heat markets
Sven Werner
Department of Energy and Environment
Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden
Euroheat & Power Conference,
Brussels, June 22, 2006
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ECOHEATCOOL – District Heating (Work Package 4)
• Main purpose: Overall quantification of the
benefits of expanded use of district heating
in Europe
• Target area: EU25 + ACC4 + EFTA3 = 32
countries
• Information source: IEA Energy Balances
with some additions from Eurostat
• Heat unit used: All heat volumes are
expressed in Joule (MJ, GJ, TJ, PJ, or EJ)
• Reference year: 2003
Euroheat & Power Conference,
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Outline
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District heat demand
District heat generated with origin
Strategic heat source options for DH
Institutional and market barriers
Implications from improved heat generation
and doubling heat sales
• Conclusions
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Demand – Heat Dominates End Use
EU25 + ACC4 + EFTA3 during 2003
EJ
Total Primary Energy Supply = 81,1 EJ
Losses in the energy transformation
sector
Losses in end use
90
Combustible Renewables and Waste
80
Solar/Wind/Other
70
Geothermal
60
Hydro
50
Nuclear
40
Natural Gas
30
Petroleum Products
20
Coal and Coal Products
10
Transportation
Electricity
0
Total Primary Energy
Supply
Total Final Consumption Total End Use (estimated)
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Heat
4
Demand –Natural Gas and Electricity dominate
EJ heat
Final end use of net heat and electricity
for EU25 + ACC4 + EFTA3 with origin of supply
14
Solar/Wind/Other
12
Combustible Renewables
and Waste
10
Coal and Coal Products
Petroleum Products
8
Natural Gas
6
Electricity
4
Geothermal
2
Heat
0
Industrial sector
Residential sector
Service sector
Euroheat & Power Conference,
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Demand –Summary for the target area for 2003
• More than 5000 district heating systems in
operation
• District heat deliveries: 2,0 EJ
• District heat generated: 2,3 EJ
• Total net heat demand in the industrial,
residential, and service sectors: 20,8 EJ
• Corresponding electricity demand: 10,2 EJ
(omitting the transportation and agricultural sectors)
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District heat generated
Heat
Energy supply composition for heat generated during 2003
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Electricity
Waste
Combustible
renewables
Solar/Wind/Other
Geothermal
Switzerland, EFTA3
Norway, EFTA3
Iceland, EFTA3
Romania, ACC4
Croatia, ACC4
Bulgaria, ACC4
Slovenia, NMS10
Slovak Republic, NMS10
Poland, NMS10
Lithuania, NMS10
Latvia, NMS10
Hungary, NMS10
Estonia, NMS10
Czech Republic, NMS10
United Kingdom, EU15
Sweden, EU15
Portugal, EU15
Netherlands, EU15
Luxembourg, EU15
Italy, EU15
Germany, EU15
France, EU15
Finland, EU15
Denmark, EU15
Belgium, EU15
Austria, EU15
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Petroleum Products
Coal and Coal
Products
Figure 2. The composition for the energy supply in district heat generation during 2003. When CHP plants were used, the energy allocation
principle was used (assuming equal conversion efficiency for power and heat). 6 countries omitted due to no or very low district heat supply
(Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Malta, Spain, and Turkey). Source: IEA Energy Balances with own corrections.
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District heat generated
Renewable and recovered shares in heat generated
for district heating systems during 2003
Recovered share
Renewable share
Switzerland, EFTA3
Norway, EFTA3
Iceland, EFTA3
Romania, ACC4
Croatia, ACC4
Bulgaria, ACC4
Slovenia, NMS10
Slovak Republic, NMS10
Poland, NMS10
Lithuania, NMS10
Latvia, NMS10
Hungary, NMS10
Estonia, NMS10
Czech Republic, NMS10
United Kingdom, EU15
Sweden, EU15
Portugal, EU15
Netherlands, EU15
Luxembourg, EU15
Italy, EU15
Germany, EU15
France, EU15
Finland, EU15
Denmark, EU15
Belgium, EU15
Austria, EU15
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Figure 5. Renewable and recovered shares in heat generated during 2003. 6 countries omitted due to no or very low district heat supply (Cyprus,
Greece, Ireland, Malta, Spain, and Turkey). Source: IEA Energy Balances with own corrections. Recovered heat is here defined as the sum of heat
from fossil and nuclear CHP together with surplus heat recovered from industrial processes and with heat pumps.
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Five Major Strategic Heat Source Options
• Combined heat and power (CHP) and also
called cogeneration
• Waste incineration
• Surplus heat from industries and refineries
• Geothermal heat
• Fuel difficult to manage and handle in small
boilers (wood waste, olive residues, etc)
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Strategic Heat
Source Options
Heat flows in EJ during 2003 for the target
area of 32 countries
Residual heat from all
thermal power generation
Potential for direct use of
geothermal heat
19,2
370
1,6
0,03
Biomass potential
2,3
District heat generated
0,17
0,03
1,1
0,14
13-18
Surplus
heat from
industries
Waste incinerated
0,5
Figure 21. Summary of the five
strategic district heat sources with the
current contributions to the district
heat generated during 2003.
2,0
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Non-recycled waste
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Institutional and market barriers
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Low fuel and electricity prices
Short term investment preferred
Inappropriate legal frameworks
Energy supply focus in energy policies
Price regulations with social considerations
Distorted market prices
Inappropriate cost allocations
Ownership shifts
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District Heating Systems Do Not Grow!
100,0
EJ/year
District heat deliveries 1992-2003
World
Russia
10,0
World excl Russia
Europe excl Russia
EU25+ACC4+EFTA3
1,0
EU25
EU15
NMS10
0,1
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Figure 1. Development of district heat delivered between 1992 and 2003 for various parts of the world. Source: (IEA, 2005) with own corrections
for some European countries.
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Doubling heat sales
The final end use of electricity and net heat in the industrial,
residential, and service sectors,
excluding the agricultural and transport sectors
EJ/year
35
Electricity
Renewables
Industrial CHP heat
Based on fossil fuels
Potential for district heat
District heat
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
EU25+ACC4+EFTA3 during
2003
Suitable for district heat
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Vision: Doubling the 2003
district heat sales
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Improved district heat generation and doubling heat sales
Heat generated,
PJ/year
Three situations for estimation of
the overall benefits of district heating :
5000
Heat
4500
4000
Electricity
3500
Waste
3000
Combustible renewables
2500
Solar
2000
1500
Geothermal
1000
Nuclear
500
Natural Gas
0
2003 outcome
Improved systems
Doubling heat sales
with improved systems
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Petroleum Products
Coal and Coal Products
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Profitability
Overall profitability of recovering heat losses
into district heating networks
Payback, years
18
16
Various
recovery
factors:
Heat distribution
investment cost:
30 EUR/GJ
14
0,6
12
0,8
10
1
8
6
4
2
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
International oil price, EUR/barrel
70
80
90
Figure 24. The overall profitability for a district heating system recovering existing heat losses. The analysis is only based on the international oil
price and the heat distribution investment cost, since the alternative is to use a fossil fuel instead of district heating. The various recovery factors
reflect that recovered heat losses can not cover the whole heat demand in the district heating system. A heat recovery factor of 0,6 means that 60
% of the district heat demand is covered by recovered heat losses and 40 % from fossil fuels.
Euroheat & Power Conference,
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Implications from improved district heat generation and
doubling heat sales
• Higher energy efficiency: Will reduce primary
energy supply with 2,1 EJ/year
( = primary energy supply of Sweden)
• Higher security of supply: Will reduce the import
dependency with 4,5 EJ/year
(
= primary energy supply of Poland)
• Lower carbon dioxide emissions: Will annually
be reduced with 400 million tons, corresponding
to 9,3 % of the current emissions
( = current emissions of France from fuel combustion)
Euroheat & Power Conference,
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Conclusions 1
• International energy statistics can be
improved with respect to district heat
• Higher renewable share in current district
heating systems compared to all primary
energy supply
• The possible supply from the strategic heat
source options are many times higher than
the current net heat demand
Euroheat & Power Conference,
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Conclusions 2
• Major institutional and market barriers
appear
• A potential for expansion of district heating
exists
• More than 5000 European district heating
systems contribute to higher energy
efficiency, higher security of supply, and
lower carbon dioxide emissions
Euroheat & Power Conference,
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Conclusions 3
• Large countries can learn from small countries
EJ heat
Final end use of net heat and electricity during 2003
in the industrial, residential, and service sectors
with origin of supply for EU25 + ACC4 + EFTA3
Solar/Wind/Other
20
18
Combustible Renewables
and Waste
16
Coal and Coal Products
14
Petroleum Products
12
10
Natural Gas
8
Electricity
6
Geothermal
4
2
Heat
0
Germany, United Kingdom, France,
Italy, and Spain
Rest of EU25+ACC4+EFTA3
Euroheat & Power Conference,
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The End
Thank you for your
attention!
Euroheat & Power Conference,
Brussels, June 22, 2006
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