Transcript Slide 1

Climate Change
Mitigation and
Complexity
Agus P Sari
Country Director, Indonesia
EcoSecurities
Ultimate Objective of the
UNFCCC
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“to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a
level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate
system.
“Such a level should be achieved within a
time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to
adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure
that food production is not threatened and to
enable economic development to proceed in
a sustainable manner.”
Kyoto Protocol
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Greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the
industrialized countries at 5 percent below 1990
levels by 2008 – 2012;
Quantitative emissions limitation and reduction
commitments by industrialized countries;
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EU, 8 %
US, 7 % (later on pulled out!)
Japan, 6 %
Russia and other ET, 0 %
Norway, Australia, and Iceland, increase by 1 %, 8 %, and 10
%, respectively.
Can be undertaken individually or jointly with
other countries through “flexibility mechanisms”:
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Emissions Trading;
Joint Implementation;
Clean Development Mechanism.
A “Shared Vision”?
Mitigation is
not expensive
GDP
GDP without
mitigation
80%
77%
GDP with
stringent
mitigation
current
~1 year
Time
Macro-economic costs in 2050
will be low
Trajectories
towards
stabilization
levels
(ppm CO2-eq)
Median
GDP
reduction[1]
(%)
Range of GDP
reduction [2]
(%)
Reduction of
average annual
GDP growth rates
[3]
(percentage
points)
590-710
0.5
-1 – 2
< 0.05
535-590
1.3 Slightly negative - 4
<0.1
445-535[4]
Not available
< 5.5
< 0.12
[1] This is global GDP based market exchange rates.
[2] The median and the 10th and 90th percentile range of the analyzed data are given.
[3] The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction
during the period till 2050
that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in 2050.
[4] The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low
baselines.
The four “building blocks” of the
Bali Roadmap
Mitigation
Technology
Finance
Adaptation
R and D budgets
Energy
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Renewable Energy
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Second
generation
(cellulosic)
biofuel.
Second
generation
geothermal.
Nuclear?
Carbon Capture
and Storage?
Market mechanism to reduce
costs, transfer technologies,
and foster sustainable
development
Clean Development Mechanism.
 European Union Emissions Trading
Scheme.
 Domestic permit trading (US,
Australia).
 Other trading mechanisms.
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Market mechanism gaining
momentum
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Number of registered CDM
projects overtime
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Restructuring and
enhancement is
necessary;
Releasing regulatory
limitations;
Increasing regulatory
capacity and
responsibility;
Increasing institutional
cohesiveness;
Enhancement of
sectoral potential;
Enhancement of
regional distribution;
Reduction of emissions from
deforestation and forest degradation
(REDD)
Land use change
and deforestation,
Top 10 LUC Countries (Mt CO2)
mostly in developing
countries, contribute
1329
2563
144
146
187
195
235
317
Indonesia
Brazil
Malaysia
Myanmar
Congo, Dem. Republic
Zambia
Nigeria
Peru
Papua New Guinea
Venezuela
Other
425
699
1372
15 – 20 percent
of global emissions.
Half of which from two
countries only.
Reducing deforestation
means reducing
emissions …
And allowing
developing countries
to participate in
mitigating climate
change.
Implications for Indonesia Australia
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Policies and Measures
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Indonesia and Australia are coal producers / exporters.
Nuclear technology may have wide bilateral implications.
Australia as technology provider.
Australia as investor.
Australia as buyers of carbon credits from Indonesia.
Australia as investor / buyer of REDD credits.
International Relations
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Spheres: economics, political, security.
Agency: Governmental, private sector, civil society.