Transcript From research to consultancy

2003 Refrigerator and Appliance
Recycling Program Evaluation
CALMAC/MAESTRO Meeting
San Francisco, CA
July 26, 2006
Tami Rasmussen
[email protected]
Experience you can trust.
Acknowledgements
 Study funded through the California public goods
charge for energy efficiency
 Managed for the CPUC by SCE
 Review and input from the California IOUs
– PG&E
– SCE
– SDG&E
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Study Objectives
 Verification - To verify
– Participation
– Hard-to-reach rates
– Savings estimates
 Market Potential
– To estimate the program market potential to support the
development of future program year goals
 Appliance Degradation
– To determine the extent to which unit energy consumption
(UEC) of refrigerators increases as the unit ages
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Verification - activities and compliance
 Overall - verified reported activities and compliance
with program rules
 Discrepancies due to
– Changing definition of program year (from pick-up date to
request date)
– Some units less than 14 cubic feet included in program
(some were picked up, others were database errors)
– More than two units picked up per location.
 Inconsistent information across utilities and program
implementers with which to match customers. Results
reasonable, but not precise.
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Verification - Savings
Utility
Verified
kWh Savings
Percent of Goal
Southern California Edison
38,341,098
99 %
San Diego Gas and Electric
5,969,225
99 %
13,866,214
108 %
Pacific Gas & Electric
 One utility accidentally used the wrong deemed savings in its
report to the Commission.
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Market Potential
 Combined data from multiple sources to estimate
market potential for recycled refrigerators and
freezers.
 Sources included:
– 2002 Statewide RASS survey for penetration of units and
discard rates
– 2002 Discarder Survey for discarders in SCE territory, to
estimate percent of discarded units that are working
– The 2002 RARP evaluation for percent of working discards
transferred (versus destroyed (landfill or recycled))
– 2002 RARP participant data to adjust for size and age of
participant units
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Estimated Market Potential
PG&E
All Units
Refrigerators transferred - 14
cubic feet or larger
Secondary refrigerators
Transferred freezers1
NA
Stand-alone freezers
Units Manufactured before 1990
Refrigerators transferred - 14
cubic feet or larger
Primary Refrigerators
Secondary refrigerators
Transferred freezers1
NA
Stand-alone freezers
SDG&E
SCE
Total
153,525
48,754
149,287
351,566
697,118
177,581
637,487
1,512,186
NA
NA
24,772
817,187
185,053
588,293
1,590,533
70,346
19,793
62,303
152,442
639,597
142,519
623,344
1,405,460
175,579
33,914
141,678
351,171
NA
271,578
NA
37,861
18,946
208,288
517,727
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Degradation Analysis -purpose and approach
 Determine extent to which unit energy consumption
(UEC) increases as unit ages
 Approach
– Compared manufacturers reported UEC (when new) to DOE
test results (used or old) - 240 units available
– Tested analytical models to express increased UEC as a
function of age and other characteristics
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Degradation Analysis -Limitation of results
 Manufacturer data
 Limited in time
 Varies over the years
 Interpolated among models
 Uncertainty regarding age of metered units
 Used minimum (most recent) and maximum (earliest)
production dates
 Weak correlation between production date and recycler
estimate of unit age
 Imprecision matching model numbers
 Found manufacturer’s UEC for 136 of 240 units
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Degradation Analysis - Results 1
Metered Data as a Proportion of New UEC
Percentage of Units
Proportion of New UEC
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Degradation Analysis - Results 2
 Regression Analysis
– Discernable relationship between age and change in UEC
– R2 of 0.60 indicates not all variation in data are explained
– Best model:
 Shows unit consumption increases with age
 Indicates UEC increases as a function of other characteristics
such as:
– Refrigerator or freezer
– Size (in cubic feet)
– Configuration (side-by-side, top freezer, etc.)
 Sample too small to be definitive
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Full report available at
www.calmac.org
http://www.calmac.org/publications/
2003_EM&V_RARP_Study.pdf
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