UNDP RBA MDG-Based National Development Planning Workshop

MDG Based Planning Chandrika Bahadur and Rathin Roy

February 27-March 3, 2006

Agenda

1.

The MDGs can be met in Africa

2.

What is needed- investments, policy space, capacity development 3.

Integrating the MDGs into national development strategies

2

The MDGs are shared goals

 International agreements (such as Monterrey) provide the right framework for the MDGs – Low income countries need increased ODA to meet Goals – Countries are responsible for good governance – Private flows important but only partial substitute – Market access critical for economic growth  All countries reaffirmed their commitment to the MDGs at the World Summit 2005  The MDGs can be met within existing commitments by rich and poor countries  However, the MDGs are aspirations, not operational targets: – Countries do not plan systematically to achieve the MDGs – Aid is not provided based on countries’ needs – The international development system is not goal oriented

3

Africa’s Special Needs: look beyond standard diagnosis of poor governance

Africa faces unique structural constraints, e.g.:  High disease burden (e.g. malaria, HIV/AIDS, TB)      Dependence on low-productivity rain-fed agriculture – the only region not have experienced a green revolution Poor transport infrastructure & few navigable rivers Small internal market size Low population density Population living far from the coast    Governance alone does not explain low growth in Africa Each of these constraints can be overcome through targeted public investments Trade plays a complementary role for long-term economic development

4

Achieving the MDGs is possible

MDGs are achievable in Africa through combination of:

 Broad-based public investments at scale in health, education, agriculture, infrastructure, and environmental management   Sound policies and governance including good economic management Improved access to international trade  There is no “magic bullet” – each input is necessary

5

The MDGs are affordable

 Typical low-income country needs: $110 p.c. per year through to 2015  To meet the MDGs, low income countries will need more aid and debt relief, despite increased domestic resource mobilization  Macroeconomic stability can be maintained if aid is predictable, grants-based and coupled with adequate debt relief  At the global level MDGs are affordable within existing commitments (e.g. 0.7% target)

6

Existing commitments are sufficient and must now be implemented

 Unprecedented technical consensus on what is needed to achieve MDGs (HDR 2005, GMR 2005, Africa Commission, Millennium Project)  May 24 agreement of EU-15 to reach 0.7 by 2015  G8 decisions to double aid to Africa, cancel debt, support AIDS treatment  World Summit call for MDG based development strategies by 2006  The focus must now shift towards implementation:  Map out practical steps to achieve MDGs in development strategies to achieve the Goals.

7

Agenda

1.

The MDGs can be met in Africa

2.

What is needed- investments, policy space, capacity development

3.

Integrating the MDGs into national development strategies

8



The MDGs need growth and investment

Growth is necessary, but not sufficient for MDGs

– Some MDGs require direct investments regardless of economic growth (e.g. maternal mortality, environmental sustainability, gender equality) – Reaching the poor & reducing inequality requires direct investments in people, infrastructure, and the environment 

Investments in the MDGs are critical for growth

– Private sector led growth requires minimum standards in health, education, infrastructure, etc. – Direct investments must complement good economic policies 

Public investments are key, due to presence of

1. Lack of market and insufficient returns (e.g. poor cannot afford basic infrastructure) 2. Public goods (e.g. health, transport, environmental management)

9

Integrated investment strategies to meet the MDGs

 All necessary inputs need to be covered  Investment strategies need to be integrated and outcome-focused  The UN Millennium Project proposes 7 investment clusters for the MDGs 1. Rural development 2. Urban development 3. Health systems 4. Education 5. Gender equality 6. Environment 7. Science, technology and innovation 8. Cross-national infrastructure

10

Diagnostics

Poverty measurement and mapping are pre requisites to an MDG- Based Needs Assessment

Key tools include  MDGRs to present disaggregated data (including sex disaggregated data) as a basis for poverty mapping  Applied research on poverty and inequality assessment  Poverty and Social impact analysis (PSIA)  Statistical literacy and building national and sub-national data and monitoring systems to map poverty

11

Assessment of fiscal space

 Options for expanding the public revenue base including: tax relief, debt relief, domestic or international borrowing, grants, loans, options offered by carbon and environmental commodities etc.

 Develop medium term public investment programmes, including five year Medium Term Expenditure Frameworks (MTEF) that are consistent with the needs assessments

12

Macroeconomic and capacity assessments for national policy frameworks

 Assess the impact of public investment strategies on key macroeconomic variables (such as inflation), external shocks, and other variables affecting macroeconomic closure.

 Capacity diagnostic tools and progress indicators, at the national, sectoral and institutional level.

 Integration of public investment plans and pro poor policies in the macroeconomic framework and sectoral development plans.

13

Formulate “complementary” policies

 Social policies  Environmental and energy policies  Policies which address the governance and development impact of HIV/AIDS  Policies to secure governance reform and change management in state, legislative, judicial and oversight bodies.

 Local level policies  Policies for “special situations” (conflict, disaster and post conflict situations)

14



MDG investments can build absorptive capacity

To develop capacity countries need to map out long-term investment strategies in

1. Human resources

– Pre-service training – In-service training – Review of salaries and benefits

2. Infrastructure

– Capital costs – Operating expenditures

3. Public management systems

– Civil service reform – Equipment – IT services

15

Capacity development

Enhancing national capacities to deliver on the MDGs involves

 Capacity to enhance service delivery (e.g. one-stop shops, merit based performance and improved quality standards and transparent accountability mechanisms;  Partnerships with the private sector and communities to expand the reach of basic service delivery;  Fostering societal/ local change agents through improving leadership skills  Facilitating greater public access to information

16

Supporting service delivery in crisis countries and post-conflict situations

 Emergency-related service delivery  Support leadership and accountability mechanisms, conflict resolution and resilience facilities, and public administration reform

17

Capacity development

Scaling up to achieve the MDGs requires that financial disbursements, tracking and accounting procedures are

effective and efficient. Examples of interventions:  Training on international standards.

 Guidance on quality certification standards for essential products and services.

 Enhance national procurement systems.

 Invest in national anti corruption institutions

18

Agenda

1.

The MDGs can be met in Africa 2.

What is needed- investments, policy space, capacity development

3.

Integrating the MDGs into national development strategies 19



The operational framework for achieving the MDGs

Countries align national development strategies with the MDGs, including integrated investment strategies across sectors  The international community supports these strategies with adequate development assistance  As requested by governments, UN system provides technical support in strategy design and implementation

20

Aligning national strategies with a goals based approach

 How can the MDGs be translated into operational targets?

 How can sector strategies based on the MDGs be integrated into the PRSP/national development strategy?

 How would the MTEF and annual budgeting processes need to change to reflect the country’s commitment to the MDGs?

 How can the UN Country Team re-align its support to governments for implementing a strategy that is consistent with achieving the MDGs?

21

MDG based development strategy are different from “Business as usual”

1.

Ambition- National MDG targets for 2015 represent transformational not incremental change

2.

Scope- the range of sectors identified is broad enough to achieve all the MDGs

3.

Rigor-Evidence based policies focused on MDG attainment, not based on “binding” constraints. For each sector, the strategy is based on a detailed, bottom-up needs assessment

4.

Timeline-the medium term strategy is nested in a 10 year MDG framework

5.

Financing- Timeline and international consensus on financing require resources to be secured to meet MDG targets. Not resources being the “binding constraint” that limit broad based access to MDG goods and services

22

Principles of development strategies that are MDG based

Typical strategy today MDG-based development strategy MDG target

Level of MDG progress ?

1990 2005 2008 2015 MDG MDG Base Year

YEAR

Target Deadline

23

1990 2005 2008 2015 MDG MDG