Transcript Slide 1
Going Green – Opportunities and Challenges
Automotive News World Congress – 2008
January 22, 2008
Mary Ann Wright
Chief
Executive
Officer
1
Johnson Controls
Johnson Controls - Saft Advanced Power Solutions LLC
Johnson Controls has been in the Energy Efficiency Business
for 122 Years
Power Solutions
World’s largest manufacturer of lead-acid automotive batteries
• 97% Lead Recycling Rate
The leading independent supplier of fully integrated
battery systems for hybrid and electric vehicles
Sold 400,000 AGM lead-acid batteries for micro-hybrids in 2007
Building Efficiency
World’s largest provider of energy efficiency and comfort
solutions involving heating, cooling, fire, security, and lighting
North
Automotive Experience
America
52%
World’s largest provider of automotive interiors, including seats,
door systems, cockpits, overhead systems, and electronics
2
Johnson Controls
Transportation Sustainability – the Challenges are Well Known
Oil to reach $100/barrel by end of '08
Economic Disruption
Tuesday October 2, 2007 @ 4:29 pm ET
By Adam Schreck, AP Business Writer
FROM: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071002/100_oil_outlook.html?.v=1
Energy Security
http://www.anarkismo.net/attachments/apr2007/p
anic_peak_oil.jpg
Environmental Risk
Resource Impact
http://www.maf.govt.nz/mafnet/ruralnz/sustainable-resourceuse/climate/impact-onindustries/greenhouse.jpg
3
Johnson Controls
http://www.usip.org/fellows/reports/200
4/images/iraq_oil_fire.jpg
Globally, the Transportation Sector Accounts for 24% of all CO2 Emissions
Some forecasts project that the current
global population of 700 million automobiles
could reach 1.2 billion by 2030
12
Global Emissions from the Transportation Sector
Billions of metric tons CO 2
A mid-size automobile driven 24,000 km
per year will emit approximately 5 metric tons
of CO2 annually
10
8
6
4
2
0
Year 2006
In absence of significant improvements
in powertrain efficiencies, annual CO2
emissions from the transportation sector
could exceed 10 billion metric tons by 2030
The non-OECD countries will account for
the majority of this increase, about 60%
4
Johnson Controls
Year 2030
Non-OECD Countries
Brazil
China
India
Russia
A Spectrum of Technologies can Reduce Oil Consumption and CO2 Emissions
Energy Efficiency is the Lowest Total Cost Strategy for CO2 Abatement
Hybrid and electric technologies significantly improve overall vehicle efficiency
Factor
Diesel
Emissions (GHG)
Hybrid
(gasoline)
All Electric
or Fuel Cell
X
X
X
X
X
X
Fuel efficiency
X
Performance (acceleration)
X
X
X
Model choice/flexibility
X
X
X
Convenience (range, refilling)
X
Initial cost to manufacture
Cost per mile
5
Flex-Fuel
(E85)
Johnson Controls
X
X
X
X
X
There are Multiple Types of Hybrids…
Types of Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEVs)
Micro (a.k.a Stop/Start)
Low voltage
Shuts down engine at idle to save fuel
Example: BMW 1,3 mini series – JCI is the world
leader in AGM micro hybrid batteries
Mild
Low to medium voltage
Includes stop-start, regeneration braking
and acceleration assist
Example: GM Saturn VUE
Full hybrids
High voltage
Includes all mild HEV features PLUS electric-only
operating range and optionally,
multiple axle electric drive
Example: Ford Escape
6
Johnson Controls
There are Multiple Types of Hybrids…
Plug-In Hybrid (PHEV)
High voltage
Includes all full hybrid features PLUS
electric-only operation for ~20 miles
Ability to recharge battery
through 120V electrical outlet
(in addition to regenerative braking)
Demonstration vehicles: GM Saturn VUE,
Dodge Transit, Ford Escape
Electric Vehicle
High voltage
No internal combustion engine
Recharge battery through 120V electrical outlet
No models in production
Fuel Cells
7
High Voltage
No internal combustion engine
Full gas hybrid functionality
Demonstration vehicles:
Daimler, Ford, Honda, Toyota
Johnson Controls
Fuel Efficiency & CO2 Reduction Benefit
Battery Innovation “Fuels” the Drive To Sustainable Transportation Technology
Micro
Hybrid
Vehicle
Fleets
Mild
Hybrid
Vehicle
Fleets
Full
Hybrid
Vehicle
Fleets
PHEV
Vehicle
Fleets
Pure
Electric
Vehicle
Fleets
100%
60%- 100%
25-40%
12-20%
Commercially Available
5-8%
Under Development
Phased Technology Roll-out and Commercialization
8
Johnson Controls
Incremental Steps Can Have a Significant Impact
Mild hybridization of just 25 percent of the new vehicle fleet over the next 23 years
would have the equivalent emissions impact of eliminating 6 percent of the current
global automobile fleet
Reduced CO2
Emissions of
215 Million
Metric Tons
43 Million Automobiles
9
Johnson Controls
Hybridization achieving a 20% MPG
improvement in ¼ of the new vehicles
Li-Ion is the Next Battery Technology for Hybrid Vehicles
Li-Ion Battery Technology Advantages for HEVs
Existing Nickel Metal
Hydride Battery
Nickel Metal Hydride is
today’s battery technology
•
•
•
1.8 kWh of Energy
83 liters volume
76 kg (without housing)
Li-Ion is the target of
every OEM as the obvious
next step battery solution
New Lithium Ion Battery
•
•
•
WHY?
10
Johnson Controls
1.5 kWh of Energy
35 liters volume
33 kg (without housing)
Smaller
Lighter
More Powerful
Safe
Durable
Flexible
{
30% Smaller
Faster Recharge
50% Lighter
Enhanced
Cycle Life
More Powerful
30% Smaller
More
Energy
Hybrid Batteries – A Very Complex System
Mechanical Subsystem
Electrochemistry/Cell
Cell Manufacturing
Electronics
Software
JIT System Assembly
Electrical Subsystem
11
Johnson Controls
Thermal Management Subsystem
Critical Challenges to PHEV Commercialization
Validation of system level performance:
OEM requirements
Regulatory requirements
Life
Abuse Tolerance
Identifying the “Value Proposition”
Petroleum versus electricity costs
Public policy incentives
Involvement by all stakeholders
Cost impact of regulatory requirements
Battery secondary use potential
Comprehensive understanding of V2B/V2G economics/challenges
Regulatory motivation beyond California
Understanding energy security versus environmental impact
Broad use of PHEVs will require rationalization of the utilities fuel base
More coal will require CO2 sequestration
Innovation is the key, both technically and commercially
12
Johnson Controls
Initial Test Results from PHEV Application are Encouraging
120K+ Miles Equivalent
PHEV - 80% DoD Test Results
110%
JCS Li-Ion VL41M
105%
JCS NiMH 4NP40
Life Testing at
Southern
California Edison:
78% DOD under
40°C
Ambient
Temperature
13
Johnson Controls
Peak Power Test
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
0
500
1000
1500
cycle number
2000
2500
3000
Critical Challenges for the Transportation and Battery Industries
Cost
Economies of scale
Diverse/capable supply base and access to secure supplies of strategic materials
Legislative and policy alignment with technology and market development needs
Technology
Technology advancements for PHEVs with demonstrated safety
Advanced manufacturing technologies
Infrastructure
Recycling and Battery recharging infrastructure (plug-ins)
Common engineering standards for HEV powertrains
Transportation regulations for shipment of large battery systems
Technical skill sets - Renewed emphasis on technical education in the United States
14
Software engineering
Electrochemistry/Materials science
Electrical engineering
Mechanical/Thermal engineering
Johnson Controls
Energy Bill - Key Transportation Provisions
CAFE increase to 35 mpg fleet average by 2020 vs. current 25 mpg
Promote development and manufacturing of advanced batteries
Expanded R&D
Technology and vehicle demonstration
• Federal fleet conservation program
• Encourage PHEV and electric drive vehicle fleet at state and local levels
Domestic manufacturing incentives
Secondary applications and recycling
Technical education
15
Johnson Controls
Johnson Controls Global Footprint
Nersac, France
Bordeaux, France
NiMH & Li-Ion
Production Line
Li-Ion Pilot Line
& Research Lab
Pontoise,
France
BMS NiMH & LiIon
Hannover,
Germany
Milwaukee,
US
System Integration
Li-Ion Lab
Shanghai, PRC
Development
Facility
New Milwaukee Test Facility Opened October 2007
16
Johnson Controls
The Future Without Hybrids?
17
Johnson Controls