Transcript Seed supply and breeding targets for Scots pine and Norway

Seed orchards in a warm
future
With particular attention to the Swedish case
Dag Lindgren, SLU, Sweden
Johan Westin, Skogforsk, Sweden
Finnvid Prescher, Svenska Skogsplantor, Sweden
IUFRO conference Seoul 2010
August 25, 2010
http://daglindgren.upsc.se/iufro10/
Summary
• Seed orchards are important, and become
more important!
• Global warming requires immediate
reaction!
• React now, but do not overreact!
Photo: Dag Lindgren
Global warming
• Global warming should be considered a fact
Global warming has been unsure – now we have to deal
with it as a matter of fact! It will become warmer the next
century!
• Accelerating human impact
Human has an accelerating impact on environment and
climate. Now stronger than ever before!
• How many degrees can the forests tolerate?
The forest can tolerate some degrees raise because of
phenotypic plasticity, management, resilience and
genetic diversity. – But at a cost and there is a limit!
• Immediate action seems required!
Immediate action is needed!
• “Do nothing” is not optimal and probably leads to a
catastrophe next century!
• Evolution and Natural gene migration takes much
too long time for forest trees!
• We must start practicing to manage environmental
change! That includes planting, long term breeding
and seed orchards.
More seed orchards is a response to
an uncertain warmer future
• Predictable and reproducible
Seed orchard seeds are more predictable and reproducible
than stand seeds.
• Environmental friendly
Seed orchards are the most environmental friendly way to
increase forest production.
• Seed for variable conditions
Orchard clones origin from a wide range of stands and objects
and are tested on a range of sites. This gives seeds suitable
for variable conditions.
• Genetic diversity
A sufficient number of clones results in genetic diversity and
flexibility.
• Renewable resources
Seed orchards create renewable resources, which replaces
fossil!
• Sequestering
More sequestering of carbon dioxide
• Permanent removal of carbon dioxide
Seed orchards today may help removing carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere for ever. Forest products will be coupled to the
developing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology.
• Flexible
Seed orchards are easily modified to new environments (by
rouging, selective harvest and changed target area).
• Facilitates seed production
Warmer climate facilitates seed production for sites in northern
Sweden with a harsh climate
• Local adaptation looses its relevance
The argument that an autoctoneous provenance reflects local
adaptation looses its relevance with global warming and
environmental change.
• Economically strong forestry.
Seed orchards contributes to an economically stronger forestry.
How prepared is Sweden for an
uncertain future?
• Flexible species and populations in the north
Northern latitudes have experienced repeated glaciations,
and thus got species and populations able to deal with
environmental change. The genetic variation is large. Heat
is positive and drought not limiting.
• Seed orchards used
Seed orchards are used for more than half of the
plantations and the figure is increasing.
• Genetic variation on landscape level
There is more genetic variation among stands now than
ever before. There are natural stands, trees on
impediments, planted forests with differently transferred
materials and different degrees of improvement.
Swedish breeding has prepared
for an uncertain future!
The structuring of long term breeding and testing
supporting seed orchards is organized in many (≈20)
subpopulations targeted by Temperature Climate
(heat sum) & Light climate (latitude).
Many breeding populations
with different targets
66
64
62
60
Latitude (Light climate)
68
Sweden
in light
and
temp
58
56
100
200
Heat sum (Temperature climate)
= breeding population
target
300
= testing area for a
breeding population
(overlaps with other
BP)
Breeding materials will now
be tested over a slightly
wider range of
environments as response
to uncertain environmental
change!
= testing area for a
breeding population
(overlaps with other
BP)
Suggestion for current genetic
decisions
• Act now as if temperature will rise two degrees
between 1991-2090; one degree 1991-2040!
• Accept direct temperature related consequences
(average temperature, heat sum, phenology, etc.)
• Neglect other possible changes which has not
already occurred (e.g. precipitation, wind,
continentality, parasites, pests, deceases). They are
important, but magnitude and effects are still
uncertain!
• Be prepared to modify actions within a decade!
Why two degrees in a century?
• Few scenarios predict less than two degrees rise in a
century neither for Sweden, nor the world.
• Safe – if no warming, actions will cause limited loss.
• Conservative, better to start with changes in the
right direction, than have to change in opposite
direction 2020.
• For immediate use, while waiting for better
guidelines!
• There are political decisions not to tolerate more. It
sends a signal to the politicians to keep their
promises and that forestry reacts on the signals!
• Simple and transparent!
Uncertain forecasts!
Weather forecasts of temperature one and two
days ahead in my hometown. The standard
error two days ahead is in magnitude 2
degrees, the same as predicted change in a
century!
Temp forcasted one or two days before
The variation between adjacent years is
often two degrees and decade averages
vary more than a degree
Why start temp raise1990?
• The period 1961-1990 is a meteorological
standard period, it is most logic and simple
to start from 1990!
• Swedish experience of transfers is mainly
based on before 1990 events.
• Till 1990 the ”warming” looked insignificant,
small and was shadowed by natural
fluctuations.
How to mimic temperature change for
deployment of genetic materials in Sweden?
• Reduce the “virtual” elevation of the sites by 3.3 m
annually.
• Logic reduction! Physics says that air cools when
lifted! An air package cools around 0.6 degree/100 m.
• Observed temperature in Swedish vegetation period
sinks almost 0.6 degree/100 m! (less in winter).
• Predicted temp rise corresponds to 3.3 meters per
year.
• Effects of temperature change in Sweden can be
evaluated from existing trials! This has been codified
in a program available on the web used for Swedish
reforestation (Skogforsk “Planters guide”)
2030
1990
Sweden
mapped
in temp
and lat
Sweden
Sinks!
= breeding population
target
Two time perspectives
• I suggest to consider fresh plantations, the
mature forest is more resilient. In the near
future:
• Forest plantation. Assume conditions 2018
(half a degree temperature rise) .
• Seed orchard establishment. It takes
decades till seed production. Assume
conditions 2046 (one degree temperature
rise).
Photo Davorin Kajba
Optimal plantation site for some seed orchard
crops in a warmer climate
• ”Planters guide”
I used the Skogforsk program ”Planters guide” for
predicting ”production” of a FRM as a function of the
latitude and elevation of the plantation site.
• Scots pine in northern Sweden
Scots pine seed orchards in northern Sweden were
analyzed. (This is not typical for world).
• Optimum changes less than a latitude
The optimum of a new seed orchard seemed to change
a latitude or less (at const elevation) considering
global warming. This made a few percent difference for
production.
• Probably more important in other scenarios
The effect seems small, but may be larger for other
cases, and even a few percent is much in cubic meters.
Suggestion for recruitment in Sweden
for a warmer climate
• Lower elevations rather than southern latitudes
It seems safer to recruit clones performing well at lower elevations
than at more southern latitudes to respond to a warmer climate. Only
heat changes with elevation. With latitude also the ”light climate”
changes, which is very important at high latitudes. The southern may
be adapted to another light climate, but for the lower only heat
changes.
• Low elevation BPs get priority
The Swedish program has partly foreseen such a change and made
more effort on low (as well as high) altitude BP than motivated from
current plantations. Now this foresight can be cashed in. Thus more
breeding efforts is suggested to go into current low altitude BP and
less in current high altitude BP.
End
• Thanks for attention
Photo Yousry El-Kassaby