Transcript Slajd 1 - Supernat

Planning
and Decision Making
Dr. hab. Jerzy Supernat
Institute of Administrative Sciences
University of Wrocław
Planning and Decision Making
Planning and decision making
constitute the first managerial function
that organizations must address.
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
All planning and decision making
occurs within an environmental context.
Thus understanding the environment is essentially
the first step in planning and decision making.
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Decision making is the cornerstone of planning. It is the
catalyst that drives the planning process:
organization’s goals
follow from decisions
made by various managers
•
the best plan for achieving
particular goals reflects
a decision to adopt
one course of action
as opposed to others
•
Decision making underlies every aspect of setting goals and formulating plans.
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Purposes of goals
goals provide guidance and a unified direction for people
in the organization
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(effective) goal setting promotes good planning, and
good planning facilities future goal setting
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(specific and moderately difficult) goals can serve as a
source of motivation to employees of the organization (especially if attaining the goal is likely to result in rewards)
•
•
goals provide a mechanism for control and evaluation
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Kinds of goals. Organization’s goals vary by:
level (an organization’s mission, strategic goals, tactical
goals, operational goals)
•
area (goals for operations, marketing, finance, quality,
productivity and so forth)
•
time frame (long-term goals, intermediate-term goals,
short-term goals; nb. some goals have an explicit time
frame and others have an open-ended time horizon)
•
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
John A. Pearce II, Fred David:
An organization mission is a statement of its fundamental, unique purpose that sets a business apart from other
firms of its type and identifies the scope of the business’s
operations in product and market terms.
Jelfa SA mission statement:
The mission of Jelfa SA is to enhance the quality of life and
prolong the life span of society by manufacturing pharmaceuticals that come up to the highest world standards.
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Managing Multiple Goals
Organizations set many different
kinds of goals and sometimes experience conflicts or contradictions
among goals. To address such problems, managers must understand
the concept of optimizing.
Optimizing involves balancing and reconciling possible
conflicts between goals. Managers must look for inconsistencies and decide whether to pursue one goal to the exclusion of another or to find a midrange target between
the extremes.
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Kinds of organizational plans
Given the clear link between organizational goals and
plans it is obvious that organizations establish many different kinds of plans. At a general level, these include:

strategic plans

tactical plans

operational plans
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Strategic Plans
Strategic plans are the plans developed to achieve strategic goals. They are long-range plans and address questions of
•
scope / domain
resource allocation / deployment
competitive advantage
•
synergy
•
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dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Tactical Plans
Tactical plans aim at achieving tactical goals. They are
intermediate plans developed to implement specific parts
of a strategic plan. Thus tactical plans are concerned
more with actually getting things done than with deciding
what to do.
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Operational Plans
Operational plans are short-range plans and focus on carrying out tactical plans to achieve operational goals. Two
basic forms of operational plans are:
Single-use plans (developed for nonrecurring situations)


programs
projects
Standing plans



policies
standard operating procedures
rules and regulations
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Murphy’s Law
To err is human, to forgive is not company policy.
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Contingency Planning
Contingency planning is important for most organizations
and necessary for those operating in particularly complex
or dynamic environments. The essence of contingency
planning is the determination of alternative courses of
action to be taken if an intended plan of action is unexpectedly disrupted or rendered inappropriate.
Contingency: an event which may or may not occur; that which is possible or probable; a fortuitous event; a chance.
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Contingency plans
should be periodically
updated and revised.
Peter F. Drucker
(1909-2005)
Planning and Decision Making
Peter F. Drucker on decision making
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Making good decisions is a crucial skill at every level.
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Decision making is the specific executive task.
Most discussions of decision making assume that only
senior executives make decisions or that only senior
executives' decisions matter. This is a dangerous mistake.
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Whenever you see a successful business, someone once
made a courageous decision.
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Plans are only good intentions unless they immediately
degenerate into hard work.
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dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Whatever a manager does he does through making
decisions.
Those decisions may be made as a matter of routine. Indeed, he may not even realize that he is making them. Or
they may affect the future existence of the enterprise and
require years of systematic analysis. But management is
always a decision-making process.
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Progressive stages
of decision-making process

defining the problem

analyzing the problem

developing alternative solutions

deciding upon the best solution

converting the decision into effective action
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Stage 1: Defining the problem
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finding the real problem and defining it
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determining the objectives for the solution and the rules that limit the solution
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Quod tibi fieri non vis, alteri ne feceris (Do not do unto
others what you do not want done to yourself).
The Gospel according to Matthew 7, 12:
„Do for others what you want them to do for you”.
George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950):
Do not do unto others as you would expect they should
do unto you. Their tastes may not be the same.
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Peter M. Senge (born 1947)
distinguishes:
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fundamental solutions
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symptomatic solutions
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Stage 2: Analyzing the problem
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classifying the problem
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finding the facts
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Aaron Bernard Wildavsky (1930-1993): Organizations exist to suppress data. Some data are
screened in but most are screened out. The
very structure of organizations – the units, the
levels, the hierarchy – is designed to reduce
the data to manageable and manipula-table
proportions. (…) at each level there is not
only compression of data but absorption of uncertainty. It
is not the things in themselves but data – reduction summaries that are passed up until, at the end, executives
are left with mere chains of inferences. Whichever way
they go, error is endemic: If they seek original sources,
they are easily overwhelmed; if they rely on what they
get, they are easily misled.
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Stage 3: Developing alternative solutions
What the alternatives are will vary with the problem. But
one solution should always be considered: taking no action at all.
Some problems are so complex that you have to be highly intelligent and well-informed just to be undecided
about them.
Laurence J. Peter
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Alex F. Osborne (1888-1966) – the man who
invented brainstorming:
It is easier to tone down a wild idea than to
think up a new one.
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Stage 4: Deciding upon the best solution
There are four criteria for picking the best from among
the possible solutions:
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•
•
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risk
economy of effort
timing
limitation of resources
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Stage 5: Converting the decision into effective action
(…) it is of the essence of manager’s decision that other
people must apply it to make it effective. A manager’s decision is always a decision concerning what other people
should do. (…) It requires that any decision become „our
decision” to the people who have to convert it into action.
This in turn means that they have participate responsibly
in making it.
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat
Planning and Decision Making
Decision making and problem solving
Problem solving sensu largo
Problem solving sensu stricto
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5
Decision
making
sensu stricto
Decision making sensu largo
Decision making sensu largissimo
dr hab. Jerzy Supernat