Transcript GE CAPITAL FUTURE FLEET CONFERENCE

SMMT
New Car CO2 Report
9 March 2010
Contents
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Average new car CO2 performance
Total new car CO2 emissions
Impact on 2009 new car CO2 performance
Scrappage Incentive Scheme
2009 CO2 performance trends
Outlook for UK new car CO2 emissions
UK new car CO2 emissions
• Continuous improvement, to new low of 149.5g/km
• 5.4% improvement on 2008 and 21.2% on 1997
UK average new car CO2 emissions (Source SMMT)
190
185
180
CO2 g/km
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Total car CO2 emissions
• Data to 2008 shows recent reduction in overall car emissions
• Impact of improved technology, as well as recession
Growth in car CO2 emissions, fuel use, parc and distance travelled
(Source DECC, DFT ,SMMT)
120
CO2 emissions
Fuel used
115
Parc
1997 = 100
Distance travelled
110
105
100
95
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Impact on 2009 performance
• Improved technology – more choice of lower emitters
• Recession – curbed demand for high emitters
• Scrappage incentive scheme
• Fuel prices – higher, encourages efficiency
• Government policy, notably taxation
• Consumer information – e.g. colour coded fuel label
• Consumer preference – shift to mini/supermini segment
Scrappage Incentive Scheme
• Strong take up, registrations largely mini/superminis
• SIS cars lower than average CO2 emissions, at 133.3g/km
CO2 emissions of car through SIS, total market and scrapped car (Source SMMT)
200
182.3
175
CO2 g/km
150
147.8
133.3
125
100
75
50
25
0
SIS cars
Average new car
Scrapped car
Change in emissions by segment
• All segments seen improvements
• Mini best gain in year, -6.7%. MPVs best versus 1997, -28.6%
Change in new car CO2 emissions by segment, 2009 versus ‘08 and ’97 (Source SMMT)
% change
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
vs '08
-30%
vs '97
Total
MPV
Dual purpose 4x4
Specialist sports
Luxury saloon
Executive
Upper medium
Lower medium
-5%
Supermini
Mini
0%
Distribution of CO2 emissions
• Continuous shift to the left, into lower emitting models
• 20% market sub 120g/km, and 47% sub 140g/km
Distribution of the new car market by 5g/km CO2 bands (Source SMMT)
14%
2009
2008
1997
12%
8%
6%
4%
2%
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
0%
<= 100
Share of total
10%
Distribution by VED
• Move to lower VED bands, E (131-140g/km) most popular
• Bands K-M (225g/km +) share now 5.8%, was 28.1% in ‘97
Distribution of the new car market by VED bands (Source SMMT)
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
2009
2008
2000
1997
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Outlook for new car CO2 emissions
• New car CO2 regulation – 130g/km by 2015 in EU
• Industry action, government measures, consumer sentiment
NAIGT technology road map (Source NAIGT)
Conclusions
• Further significant progress being made.
• Net impact on reducing total CO2 emissions.
• Short term - progress may be tempered by economic
recovery and removal of the SIS.
• Long term - VM response to regulation, national
government measures and changing consumer
sentiment to lower emissions.
• Integrated approach – industry (vehicle and fuel
suppliers), government, and consumers to pull together
for change. Automotive Council set up to aid process.
• Stability and predictability in taxation/regulation desired.
• Report does also introduce van CO2 emissions.
Thank you
Matthew Croucher
[email protected]
SMMT
New Car CO2 Report
9 March 2010
Panel discussion
Rt Hon Pat McFadden MP, minister for business, innovation and skills
Robert Goodwill MP, Conservative shadow transport minister
Norman Baker MP, Liberal Democrat shadow transport secretary
Paul Everitt, SMMT