Transcript Crisis in Analysis Dimensions and a Way Ahead David S. Alberts

C2 Analysis:
Information Age Challenges
presented at ISMOR August 2002
Dr. David S. Alberts
Director, Research and Strategic Planning
Department of Defense
Agenda
• Analysis Challenges
• Meeting the Challenges
• Summary
Analysis Challenges
• Analysis has no intrinsic value
• Purpose of Analysis is to inform decisions
• DoD Transformation needs to be informed
• Thus, Analysis needs to effectively deal with
•
•
•
•
Information Age concepts and technologies
Full spectrum of missions
Characteristics of “non traditional” adversaries
Uncertainty, Risk, Agility (robust, adaptability, flexible, innovative, responsive)
Information Concepts and Technologies
• Network Centric Warfare
–
–
–
–
High quality awareness
Shared awareness
Collaboration
Self-synchronization
• Information Flows
– Move from Push-oriented to Pull-dominated
– Widespread sharing of information
• Cognitive Dimension
– perceptions, values, cultural biases
• Systems
– Move from Systems to System of Systems to Federations of Systems
– Vulnerabilities
• Transformation Process
– From exercises to experiments
– From technology insertion to co-evolution of MCPs
Mission Spectrum
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Peacetime Engagement
Humanitarian Assistance / Disaster Relief
Shaping / Deterrence / Preemption
Homeland Security
Counter-terrorism
Small Scale Contingencies
Special Forces Operations
War
These are not exclusively military missions
Non-Traditional Adversaries
• Asymmetrical
– Objective Functions
– Means
– Frame of Reference
• Extended battlespace (beyond combatants and “battlefield”)
• Cultural differences reflected in unfamiliar behaviors
• Different information capabilities and needs
“ilities”
• Most analyses focus on measures or indicants of mission
success in a given scenario
• The effectiveness of selected capabilities are often highly
dependent on circumstances / scenarios
• Measures that reflect a capability’s robustness, flexibility,
and agility to address a wide range of missions,
circumstances, and scenarios are needed.
• From these one can derive measures of risk to complement
other measures of effectiveness
Meeting the Challenges
• Focus on Transformation
–
–
–
–
Include Key Independent Variables
Include Measures that focus on Information Age concepts
“Control” the Controllable Variables
Consider Key Relationships
• Avoid killer assumptions
–
–
–
–
–
Existing Doctrine
Approved Models, Scenarios, and Data
Scripted Adversary Behavior
Perfect Communications
Perfect Decision Making
Meeting the Challenges
• Focus on Transformation
–
–
–
–
Include Key Independent Variables
Include Measures that focus on Information Age concepts
“Control”
Variables
- Focus the
on Controllable
Key Variables
and Value Chain
Consider Key Relationships
• Avoid killer assumptions
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Existing Doctrine
Approved Models and Data
Scripted Adversary Behavior
Perfect Communications
Perfect Decision Making
One Scenario
No Sensitivity Analysis
Key Variables &Value Chain
Networking
the Force
Collaboration
Sharing
Awareness
Protection
SharedAwareness
Synchronization
Offensive IO
Adversary
Information Advantage
(less fog)
Better C2
Better Decisions
Better Plans
Execution Advantage
(less friction)
Better Execution
Competitive
Advantage
Information Sharing
• Information Sharing Lies at the Core of Information
Age Concepts
– Creates Increased Awareness
– Creates Shared Awareness
• Entry Fee is a Robustly Networked Force
– the “Net”
– “Net-Ready” Nodes
• Information Sharing Has Organizational, Behavioral,
and Technical Components
– Interoperability v. Cooperability
– Technical Component Enables
– Organizational and Behavioral Components Generate
Value
Collaboration
• Collaboration requires Shared Awareness
• Collaboration in the Information and Cognitive Domains
Creates an Information Advantage
• Collaboration in the Warfighting Domain Creates Value by
Exploiting an Information Advantage to Create a Competitive
Advantage
• Collaboration Takes Places “on the Net”or is Reflected
“in the Net”
• The Ability to Share Awareness Creates New Forms of
Collaboration (e.g., Self-Synchronization)
Awareness
• Awareness is a Perception of the Situation
Time & Space
Capabilities & Intentions
The Situation
M
i
s
s
I
o
n
Red
Blue
Other
Opportunities & Risks
E
n
v
i
r
o
n
m
e
n
t
• Levels of Awareness
– entities, relationships, the patterns and implications
Synchronization
“Purposeful arrangement of things in time and space.”
• Synchronization is an output characteristic of a command
and control process that arranges and continually adapts
the relationships of military actions in time and space to
achieve the objective
• Fuses the information, cognitive, and physical domains
• Involves a dynamic component that orchestrates
relationships among many dimensions:
•
•
•
•
•
Time (sequencing)
Space (simultaneity)
Purpose Level (Strategic, Operational, Tactical)
Arenas (Air, Land, Sea, Space, Cyberspace)
Organizational Synchrony
Self-Synchronization
Involves New Command Concepts
• Self-Synchronization is an emergent property
–
–
–
–
Command Intent
Shared Awareness
Shared Experience
Collaborative Processes
Self-Synchronization
Synchronization
X X
X
Meeting the Challenges
• Focus on the Transformation
–
–
–
–
Include Key Independent Variables
Include Measures that focus on Information Age concepts
“Control” the Controllable Variables
Consider Key Relationships
• Avoid killer assumptions
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Existing Doctrine
Approved Models and Data
Scripted Adversary Behavior
Perfect Communications
- Focus on Information Age C2 Concepts
Perfect Decision Making
One Scenario
No Sensitivity Analysis
Emerging View of C2 Process
Cognitive
Domain
Sensemaking
Understanding
Command Intent
Awareness
Battlespace
Management
Information
Domain
Information
Systems
Physical
Domain
Battlespace
Monitoring
Operating Environment
Synchronization
Information Age Impacts on C2
Richness
Decisionmaking
Battlespace
Awareness
Battle
Management
Reach
Quality of
Interaction
NCW Levels of Maturity
Command and Control
Traditional
Shared
Awareness
Developing
Situational
Awareness
Collaborative
Planning
3
Info
Sharing
1
Organic
sources
0
2
Self-synch
4
Implications for Command Arrangements
• Adaptation to the Information Age should be focused on
– developing shared awareness in unfamiliar situations
– synchronizing effects in coalition environments
• Current approaches to command arrangements will become
increasingly outdated
• Need to move from exclusive to inclusive
• Need to change roles of headquarters, staffs, and forces
• Command arrangements will need to continuously evolve
• Initial “solutions” will not be anywhere near optimal
• Adaptations to Information Age technologies will differ among
coalition partners
• Implies a federated approach to systems
• Need to explore how / where partners “plug in”
Summary
• Analysis needs to focus on tenets of NCW
– A robustly networked force improves information sharing
– Information sharing and collaboration enhance the quality of
information and shared situational awareness
– Shared situational awareness enables self-synchronization
– These, in turn, dramatically increase mission effectiveness
• Analysis needs to support experimentation
– Co-evolution of Mission Capability Packages
• A New Generation of Models is Needed to Support Analysis
of Alternative Concepts. These models must be able to
– represent emerging operational concepts and new approaches to C2
– “instrument” key network-centric concepts (e.g. information quality,
shared awareness, synchronization)
– reflect an intelligent, interactive adversary
22