Transcript INPRO - INFRASTRUCTURE

Nuclear Electricity in the
CEE Region:
Current State
and
Development Prospects
R I Facer, NENP-NPTDS, IAEA
IAEA
International Atomic Energy Agency
NUMBER OF COUNTRIES WITH NPP
and others who have considered NPP
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
0
Blue, countries with NPPs,
Pink, countries that considered NPPs
IAEA
Reasons why not proceeded in the past
• Finance
•
•
•
•
Nuclear economics unattractive
Infrastructure costs high
Costs of new facilities high
Liability for waste uncertain
• Manpower unavailable
• Lack of skills
• Lack of trained manpower
• Public distrust
• Private industry decisions
• Alternatives available
IAEA
Changing conditions
• Economics of alternative energy sources
• Rising price of fossil fuels
• Nuclear continuing in many countries
• Identified success for countries that have
nuclear power
• Security of supply
• Independence from single supplier
• Growing environmental concerns over fossil
fuels
IAEA
Global Nuclear Capacity
400
Developing countries
350
Japan / ROK
FSU / EE
300
GW(e)
250
200
Western Europe
150
100
North America
50
0
1960
1965
1970
NA
IAEA
1975
WE
1980
Russia & EE
1985
Japan & ROK
1990
Developing
1995
2000
World Primary Energy Demand
18 000
16 000
14 000
Natural gas
Mtoe
12 000
10 000
Oil
8 000
6 000
4 000
Coal
2 000
Other renewables
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Hydro
power
Nuclear
power
2030
Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix,
while oil remains the leading fuel
IAEA
Into Uncharted Territory:
The Earth out of Balance
IPCC
Projection
650
CO2 trapped in Ice Cores (ppm)
600
Vostok Record
IPCC Scenario
ppmv/yr
Annual CO2 increase
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
550
500
0.5
0
1955
1965
1975
Year
1985
1995
450
2005
Current
(2003)
400
350
300
250
200
IAEA
400
300
200
100
Age (thousands of years before present)
0
Climate Change:
It Is Already Occurring
An increasing body of
observations gives a collective
picture of a warming World.
There is new and stronger
evidence that most of the
warming observed over the last
50 years is attributable to human
activities.
IAEA
Technologies Exist
to Begin to Take Action
IAEA
R Socolow, Science 2004
Agency Activities
• Regional Europe TC Projects
• Operational Support
• Safety/regulatory support
• National Projects
• Energy Planning, capacity building
• License renewal/Life extension
• Infrastructure support
• Specific national requests
IAEA
Strengthening capabilities for NPP performance and service life
• Experience over the past four years
Increase in
installed capacity
Increase output
Additional
TWH/year
Additional Annual
Revenue
IAEA
World
Regional Europe
2.07%
2.8%
7.4%
16.9%
42.18
$25M per TWH
World Energy today
Energy
Electricity
consumption Consumption
(GJ/cap)
(MWh/cap)
North America
347
13.8
Western Europe
150
6.3
Eastern Europe
130
4.2
Middle East and South
Asia
28
0.7
Africa
26
0.6
Far East
56
2.2
World Average
71
2.6
IAEA
Prognosis for the future
• World demand increases
• Asia increases much faster than world
average
• Fossil fuel use has massive increase
• Environmental stress
IAEA
CEE
Number of NPP
units
% of all electricity
from nuclear
Bulgaria
4
42
Czech R
8
31
Finland
4
27
Hungary
4
34
Lithuania
1
72
Romania
1
10
Slovakia
6
55
Slovenia
1
39
Ukraine
15
51
IAEA
Nuclear Support
In the Countries where nuclear power
contributes significantly to the national
electricity supply there is broad political
consensus that nuclear power should
continue
IAEA
CEE Nuclear plans (existing nuclear countries)
Planned new Continued operation
and license renewal
units
Bulgaria
Yes
Yes
Czech R
Finland
Hungary
Lithuania
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Ukraine
IAEA
yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Possible
No
Yes Completion of
Yes
delayed plant
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Other Countries plans
• Several Countries have expressed interest
recently, particularly since Paris Conference
“Nuclear Power for the 21st Century” at
which 34 Ministers presented speeches
discussing their countries interest in possible
nuclear power plants in the future.
• At present there are 24 nuclear plants under
construction in 9 countries
IAEA
European Green Paper
• Towards a European Strategy for the
Security of Energy Supply (2000)
• Three Main Points
• Increasing Dependence upon external energy
sources (70% by 2030)
• Little scope to influence energy supply
conditions
• Not in a position to respond to challenge of
Climate Change
IAEA
European Context
• Nuclear can reduce external dependence
upon fossil energy
• Nuclear can provide energy without
Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Nuclear can provide diversity of national
energy supply and improved national energy
supply security
IAEA
Nuclear Availability
• Technology available now for large nuclear plant,
in an integrated grid system
• Several plants being built worldwide that could be used
in Europe
• Several designs approaching implementation for
small or medium sized reactors that could be used
on a more localised basis.
• European Infrastructure exists that could support
the introduction of a nuclear plant for any country
in Europe
IAEA
Nuclear fuel and waste
• Recent speech by US Secretary of State for
Energy
• US sees fuel cycle states offering ‘cradle to
grave’ fuel cycle services, leasing fuel and then
taking it back for reprocessing and disposition.
• This service is already available from
Russia, and hence should develop into the
normal means of fuel supply and removal
service
IAEA
Waste storage
• Generally this is a technically solved
problem, and the future position of return of
fuel to the supplier country should reduce
the number of storage locations that are
needed.
IAEA
Nuclear and Renewables
• Nuclear power should not be seen as
competing with renewable energy systems
• Both renewable systems and high quality
nuclear power are needed to ensure a
secure energy supply system
IAEA
The next steps
• Nuclear needs to be recognised as a significant
potential energy source for Europe
• For countries that do not already operate nuclear
power plants the IAEA can provide support to
develop and strengthen the Infrastructure in these
countries
• Action is needed quickly to avoid a significant
problem for Europe in terms of energy supply
security
IAEA
The end, thank you
IAEA