Transcript Influences on Voting behaviour

Influences on Voting behaviour
Essay Questions
• To what extent does the media have the
power to influence voters?
• Social class remains a major influence in
elections. Discuss.
• To what extent are the factors that influence
voting inter-related?
Background on Voting Behaviour
• Stability in voting patterns between 1945 – 1970
• Domination by two parties. Third parties less than 10%
vote share
• More votes for LibDems in the 1970s
• Voting patterns more volatile and less predictable “partisan dealignment”
Social Class
Class is the basis for all politics (Pulzer)
• A factor in voting patterns along with race , gender, age, the media,
location and issues
• Traditionally, voters in classes A, B and C1 voted Conservative,
while C2, D and E (working classes) voted Labour
• However, working class occupations were disappearing in the 1980s
to be replaced by increasing middle classes
• Labour lost traditional working class support
• Conservatives and LibDems attracted more working class vote
• New Labour dropped some policies that appealed to the working
class (nationalisation and union support)
• By 2001, only 9% of voters thought Labour working class party
• Social class is no longer reliable predictor of voting patterns
Age
• Conservatives popular among the over 50s; younger and
first time voters vote Labour
• This trend has continued during the last 4 general
elections
• Older voters more likely to be conservatives, whereas
younger voters concerned with health and education
• Older voters less likely to change party alignment
• Issues affect different age groups - issues concerning
the young most differ from general voting public
• Young voters are less likely to vote and less interested in
politics. This could be the key to future elections.
Gender
• In the 1950s and 60s more men voted Labour and
women Conservatives. WHY?
• By 2001 election, no significant gender difference
• In 2005, slightly more women than men voted Labour.
Women were critical to Labour’s success as 38% of
women voted Labour (Mori)
• School Gate Mum (new working class or professional
middle class) is sought after by all the parties as she is
very likely to vote
• However, some argue that gender appears not to have a
significant effect on voting behaviour
Race
Religion
Location
• Regional variations in voting patterns
• Conservatives dominate SE England; Labour strong in
Midlands, Northern England and Scotland
• The North south divide has shifted further south as
labour dominated London after 1997
• Four party contest in Scotland
• Wales dominated by Labour
• SW England controlled by Cons, with labour in 3rd.
• Geographical differences might be due to class loyalties
– Labour is strongest where working class are
concentrated (Central Belt, Scotland). Conservatives in
affluent middle class areas.
Issues
Image / personality
Party affiliation
• Linked to ‘de-alignment’ theory
• ‘Floating voters’ have a significant impact on elections
• 13% of voters were undecided in the week before
election in 2005; 36% were willing to change their mind
• Party affiliation is less important than influence of
policies and leaders (personalities)
• Voters are increasingly likely to change their minds
• Other factors appear much more important