Transcript Child of the New Century

Trends in the Relative Pay of Women and Men
Across Three British Birth Cohorts
Jenny Neuburger
GeNet meeting, 26 September 2008
following lives from birth and through the adult years
www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Research questions

How has women’s average pay changed relative to
men’s since 1970?

How does women’s average pay change with age,
relative to men’s?

What difference does it make adjusting for changes in
women's employment participation?
following lives from birth and through the adult years
www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Increases in women’s paid employment
Censuses (1951, 1961, 1966) Labour Force Survey, 1971-2007
Improvement in (employed) women’s relative pay
New Earnings Survey 1970-1997, ASHE 1998-2007
British Birth Cohort Studies
National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD)
- All babies born in England, Scotland and Wales in one week
of March 1946.
- Follow-up survey 5,362 in 1948. Stratified sample.
- Surveyed 22 times, most recently in 2006 (age 60).
National Child Development Study (NCDS)
- All (17,634) babies born across Britain in a week of March
1958.
- Seven follow-up studies. Added Non British-born children at
ages seven and eleven.
- 11,419 interviewed in 2000 (age 42).
British Cohort Study (BCS)
- All (17,287) babies born across Britain in a week of April 1970.
- Seven follow-up studies. Non British-born added at ages five,
ten and sixteen.
- Non-response problems. 9,665 interviewed in 2004 (age 34).
% of women in paid employment, by age & cohort
Ratio of women’s to men’s mean hourly pay, by cohort & age
following lives from birth and through the adult years
www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Truncated distribution of wage offers
Mean wage offer
Mean
wage
Not in
paid work
In paid
work
Wage offer
Imputation characteristics
Childhood
 Father’s occupation at two ages
 Mother’s age when cohort member born
 Parents’ education
 Scores in maths and reading tests at age 10 or 11
 Number of siblings
 Number of older siblings
Adulthood
 Highest qualifications
 Occupational status of first job
 Years in full-time and part-time employment
 Any children, children under five, more than one child
 Lives in London or the South East
Results I: Who is in employment?
Women with higher education and ability more likely to
be in paid work (and to work full-time)
Differences reduce with age. Non-employees more
heterogeneous group at older ages.
Results II: What do imputed wage distributions
look like?
Imputed mean wage is lower than mean wage for
women in six out of the seven surveys (between two
and eight per cent lower)
Full-time mean is much lower for women (up to 15 per
cent) when part-timers and non-employees assigned
full-time wage
Mean is lower for men at two ages; 33 (1991) and 42
(2000) for NCDS
Imputed and actual log wage distributions, NSHD
NSHD women age 26
following lives from birth and through the adult years
NSHD women age 31
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Results III: Trends in actual and potential pay ratios
Conclusions
Women’s average actual and potential pay has
increased relative to men’s across cohorts, but
decreases with age
We underestimate cross-cohort improvements in
young women’s potential pay if we ignore selection
into employment
Gender pay gaps for full-time workers understate
gender inequality in full-time pay opportunities
following lives from birth and through the adult years
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Sample sizes
NSHD NSHD
26
31
(1972) (1977)
NCDS NCDS NCDS BCS
BCS
23
33
42
30
34
(1981) (1991) (2000) (2000) (2004)
Employed
835
774
3921
3599
4135
3990
3426
Observed wage
739
630
3655
3188
3713
3655
3006
Wage missing
96
144
266
411
422
335
420
Missing covariates
(255)
(267)
(1640) (1573) (1764) (1364) (1106)
Not employed
1017
875
2334
2185
1641
1781
1582
Imputed
681
586
1119
1187
857
1061
992
Not imputed
11
5
39
5
5
5
0
Missing covariates
(322)
(284)
(1074) (993)
(776)
(713)
(586)
Total in survey
1852
1649
6255
5784
5776
5771
5008
2547
2547
8959
8959
8959
7877
7877
following lives from birth and through the adult years
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% of women with children, by qual, age and cohort
following lives from birth and through the adult years
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% of women with children, by qual, age and cohort
following lives from birth and through the adult years
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% mums employed when child < 5 yrs, by qual & cohort
following lives from birth and through the adult years
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Nearest-neighbour matching based on propensity score
Not in paid
work
In paid work
Propensity score
Prob(work) = 1
Prob(work) = 0
following lives from birth and through the adult years
www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Imputed potential and actual mean wages
NSHD NSHD
26
31
(1972) (1977)
NCDS NCDS NCDS BCS
BCS
23
33
42
30
34
(1981) (1991) (2000) (2000) (2004)
Imputed mean
1.28
(0.02)
1.40
(0.01)
1.49
(0.01)
1.77
(0.01)
1.90
(0.01)
1.92
(0.01)
2.09
(0.01)
Mean wage
1.40
(0.01)
1.43
(0.01)
1.52
(0.01)
1.83
(0.01)
1.91
(0.01)
1.96
(0.01)
2.13
(0.01)
Employees
809
724
3792
3413
3949
3874
3271
Imputed sample
1490
1310
4911
4600
4806
4935
4263
Imputed mean
1.78
(0.01)
1.87
(0.01)
1.68
(0.01)
2.19
(0.01)
2.35
(0.01)
2.15
(0.01)
2.36
(0.01)
Mean wage
1.78
(0.01)
1.87
(0.01)
1.68
(0.01)
2.20
(0.01)
2.36
(0.01)
2.16
(0.01)
2.37
(0.01)
Employees
1568
1305
4586
3961
3952
4158
3488
Imputed sample
1735
1484
5218
4676
4763
4829
4124
Women
Men
following lives from birth and through the adult years
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