Transcript Slide 1

Terrorist Motivations
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
James JF Forest, Ph.D.
Director of Terrorism Studies
Terrorist Motivations
Key questions
• Why do people resort to violence in pursuit of political
or ideological ends?
• What motivates terrorists?
• What role do economics, psychology, sociology or other
grievances play in motivating terrorist groups?
Topics:
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Psychological
Sociological
Strategic
Ideological
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3 Categories of Academic Theory
• What influences individuals’
decision to join a terrorist
group?
• What local circumstances allow
terrorist groups to thrive and
grow?
• What organizational dynamics
influence group motivations?
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Category 1: Individual Motivations
• Terrorism is an individual’s strategic choice most
often driven by combination of:
– Intense grievances
– Sense of crisis
– Address a power imbalance - empower the disenfranchised
• Combination of ideology and psychology
– Religious ideology has replaced revolutionary ideology as
most common
• Domestic terrorists tend to be forward-looking
(apocalyptic future)
• International terrorists tend to be backward-looking
(sense of grievance, humiliation, deprivation, or
neglected duty)
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Category 1: Individual Motivations
• Psychological and Social dimensions
• Moral disengagement
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Displacement of responsibility
Disregard for/distortion of consequences
Dehumanization
Moral justification
• Retributional Terrorist
• The ties that bind: training camps, extended
family, social networks; trusted networks = key
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Psychological Factors
Two basic schools of thought in psychology:
• Terrorism as strategic logic (rational choice)
• Terrorism as psycho-logic (psychological drives)
Most well-known rational choice advocate is Martha Crenshaw,
and most well-known psychological drive advocate is Jerrold Post.
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Psychological Factors
Rational Choice Approach
Cost/Benefit Calculation => Strategic Bargaining =>
Management of Effect => Targeted Violence
• Cost/benefit learning takes place thru exhausting
unsuccessful methods or by contagion (copycat effect)
• Bargaining treats terrorism as another form of
blackmail or extortion (iterative game strategy)
• Effect management refers to propaganda and publicity
(calculus of terrorism)
• Rationality most evident in choosing targets of violence
or targets of influence
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Psychological Factors
Psychological Drive Approach
Delusional Logic => Personality Traits => Need to Belong
=> Groupthink => Violence for Sake of Violence
• Delusional logic is belief in rhetoric (“us vs. them”)
• Personality traits most like narcissism or borderline
disorder (externalization and splitting)
• Need to belong (to a “basic assumption” group; e.g., task force)
• Groupthink means excessive optimism and risk-taking
(illusions of invulnerability, one-dimensional perceptions)
• Violence becomes very reason for being, and not welltargeted
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Psychological Factors
Other Psychological Motivational Dimensions:
- ideological absolutism
- necrophilia (obsession with death)
- self-assertion
- selfish ends
- self-identity
- youth romantic appeal and heroism
- giving the special importance to the activity
- challenge to estrangement
- conformity, standardization, satiety of society
- game motivation (“one upsmanship”)
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Sociological Factors
Five ideas in sociology about terrorism:
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The frustration-aggression hypothesis
The relative deprivation hypothesis
The negative identity hypothesis
The narcissistic rage hypotheses
The moral disengagement hypothesis
Some of these discussed in Rex Hudson’s (2002) book Who Becomes a Terrorist and Why
These are also discussed at http://faculty.ncwc.edu/toconnor/429/429lect02.htm
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Sociological Factors
Frustration-Aggression
“Every act of aggression presupposes a
frustration, which in turn, presupposes an
instigation or stress.”
Instigation/Stress => Frustration => Aggression
• Instigations are repeated acts that bother or hassle
• Stressors are events perceived as linear and
cumulative
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Sociological Factors
Relative Deprivation
“A fraternal feeling of injustice develops when
similar others are perceived as receiving
favored advantages.”
Comparison with others => Sense of Injustice => Potential for Violence
• Sometimes called “vicarious” frustration or inequity
• Comparison group can be real or imaginary
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Sociological Factors
Negative Identity
“A vindictive rejection of life’s role may develop from covert
disappointments in identity development.”
Disappointments => Vindictiveness => Identity-Defining Violence
• Sometimes called “Romeo & Juliet Effect” if reject
family’s plan
• Or “Pastor’s Son Syndrome” if reject how morally raised
• Called Negative Cases of Control Theory in criminology
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Sociological Factors
Narcissistic Rage
“Inadequate reality testing and narcissistic injury during childhood
creates need to blame others for inadequacies or shame.”
Narcissistic injury => Need to avoid shame => Rage
• Inadequate reality testing can be parent’s fault or own
• Narcissistic injury = unique self-esteem problem for
grandiose individuals who “split” self and project
faults
• Rage takes form of maintaining high ideals for self
and avoiding blame
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Sociological Factors
Moral Disengagement
“Insulation of self usually accompanies disinhibition and
deindividuation in horrific acts of violence.” (A. Bandura)
Insulation of Self => Disinhibition/Deindividuation => Violence
• Self usually seen as hero, functionary, or crusader
(Hacker 1996)
• Disinhibition is freedom to act without moral restraints
• Deindividuation is state of decreased self-evaluation
(crowd psychology)
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Psychiatric Factors
Five main ideas in psychiatry about the terrorist as
mentally ill:
• Terrorist as psychopath
• Terrorist as alienated
• Terrorist as depressive
• Terrorist as suicidal fanatic
• Terrorist as Machiavellian
None of these postulate insanity, a legal concept.
Likewise, no one has found cases of psychosis.
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Category 2: Local Circumstances
• “Root causes” refers to political,
economic and social conditions,
before terrorism
• However, these conditions exist
in numerous places without
terrorism
• Also, conditions change once
the conflict begins
• Will policies that address
grievances actually reduce
terrorism?
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Category 3: Group Dynamics
• Terrorism as weapon in a strategy
• Terrorist attacks = form of strategic communication
• Terrorism as a means to achieve goals and objectives
• Strategic goals include:
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Political change (e.g., overthrow govt.)
Social change (e.g., France headscarf ban)
Economic change (e.g., stop resource export)
Religious change (e.g., fundamentalism)
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Category 3: Group Dynamics
Strategic objectives of terrorism include:
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Recognition: Gaining national or international recognition for their cause;
recruiting new personnel; raising funds; demonstrating their strength
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Coercion: Force a desired behavior of an individual or government
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Intimidation: Prevent individuals, groups, or governments from acting
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Provocation: Provoking overreaction by a government to the attack on
symbolic targets or personnel, thereby gaining sympathy for their cause.
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Insurgency support: Forcing the government to overextend itself in dealing
with the threat, thereby allowing the insurgency to gain support and commit
further attacks against the government.
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Terrorism Works
• In 6 of the 11 campaigns that ended terrorists achieved at
least partial political gains (Pape, 2005)
• Target states
– Fully or partially withdrew from territory
– Began negotiations
– Released a terrorist leader
• Represents 55% success rate
– Other punishment strategies such as airpower or economic
sanctions work no more 15% of the time
• Suicide campaigns have been successful against a variety
of democratic governments -- even hawkish ones
– Reagan Administration
– Netanyahu
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Terrorism Works
• The successes of terrorism become part of a group’s
ideology, which feeds recruitment and internal motivation
• For al Qaida, the terrorism strategy has produced some
results which benefit their ideological cause
• Understanding the ideology of al Qaida (and other groups)
is vital to our understanding of terrorist motivation
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Al-Qaida: Ideological Motivation Themes
• Palestinians’ plight and their “liberation” is a central cause for
Muslims, as is fighting against the anti-Islamic campaigns in Bosnia,
Chechnya, Afghanistan and Kashmir
• Bin Laden is not only the leader of AQ, but the imam for all Muslims,
thus the Islamic “nation” should rally around him
• Muslims need to wake up to their “depressed condition,” not stand
passively by but actively participate in the (armed) jihad
• Complicity of the Arab/Muslim “agent regimes” makes them
legitimate targets of the jihad too
• The “far enemy” must be targeted first, but beware of the continuing
threat from the “near enemy”
• Since the UN is a lackey of the US and its tool for oppression, and is
itself against Islam, it is also a legitimate target
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Al-Qaida: Ideological Motivation Themes
 Two forms of terrorism:
- “Commendable”: the fight to stop America’s oppression
of/injustice toward Muslims, and its support for the Zionists
(Israel); and
- “Abhorred”: what Israel is practicing (and US supporting) in
Palestine, and what America is doing in Iraq, Afghanistan, and
all over the world
 America’s “crusade” against the Islamic world will fail: Muslims
adhere to their principles/faith; they are more cohesive domestically and internationally; Al-Qaida and the Taliban are now a
major presence on the world political and psychological map;
and the Crusader “enemy front” is in conflict/disintegrating
 Fall of Baghdad marks the return of “direct colonialism” in the
Arab world (and follows fall of Jerusalem, Beirut and Kabul)
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Al-Qaida: Ideological Motivation Themes
 US is really out to control region’s oil wealth, dominate Muslim territories:
“veiled colonization”
 The 9/11 ghazwah (“raids”) were legitimate and justified, due to US
mistreatment of Muslims, continuing “occupation” of Saudi Arabia, and
support to Israeli aggression
 US is mistreating, illegally holding the mujahidin at Guantanamo (in
subhuman conditions), they are suffering for a noble cause, and must be
freed
 Usama bin Laden is still alive, and Al-Qaida will “stay the course” in the
fight against the US, in spite of losses in personnel and its base of
operations in Afghanistan
 Women mujahidin are being mobilized to join the jihad (“noble cause”)
 Al-Qaida even took credit for the August 2003 power outages in the
Eastern US, and highlighted America’s structural weakness and
ineffectiveness of response to the situation
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The Religious Dimension
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Hard for Westerners to understand what leads a person to cause his (or
her) own violent end: Death is inevitable, so pursue martyrdom – the
ultimate submission to God
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Promise to Muslims from a hadith that “the gates of Paradise are under the
shade of the swords” – meaning that death for Allah’s sake (martyrdom) is
the only assured way to personal entry (and favorable consideration for
one’s family) into Paradise
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Involves personal, spiritual, intellectual and emotional considerations -martyr must: love God more than life; be willing to sacrifice himself against
power of the devil and infidel forces; see the answers to all of these
questions clearly; and must overcome the physical fear of death
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“The purest joy in Islam is to kill and be killed for Allah” – Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini
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Appears prominently in Al-Qaida literature: heading for a key series of
articles in al-Neda on “Why We Fight America”
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Summary: Individual and Group Motivations
• Some Individuals who join a terrorist group willingly give up
power over their behavior, personal decisions
• Some draw prestige from group membership; being part of
something greater than oneself
• Many groups exploit need for member’s ego validation
• Group membership in many cases offers individuals a
sense of power over their destiny which they lack elswhere
• A powerful motivating message: “You can make a
difference in this world, not only for yourselves but for your
children and grandchildren”
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“You have to be lucky everyday – We only have to be lucky once”
- IRA Bomber
Questions?
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