Transcript Traveling Tobacco Road: Diversifying Risk in a Post

2013 Crop Budget Projections
Presented by:
Ben Beale
Extension Agent-St. Mary’s Co.
General Farm Statistics
Crop
St. Mary’s
Charles
Calvert
Total
Number of
Farms
621
418
274
1313
Land in Farms
71920
52147
26443
150510
Average Size
109
125
97
-------
Value of Sales in 1000’s
St. Mary’s Charles
Calvert
Total
Total
15947
8898
4052
28897
Grain
4497
3286
1459
9442
Tobacco
906
151
127
1184
Vegetables
2411
939
588
3938
Nursery and
Greenhouse
3163
1554
600(est)
4717
Crop
Field Crop (acres)
Crop
St. Mary’s
Charles
Calvert
Total
Corn
10351
7826
4685
22862
Soybeans
13479
7098
2419
22996
Wheat
4431
3400
1894
9725
Barley
1010
502
143
1655
Tobacco
496
82
50
628
Forage
5579
4832
2730
13141
Vegetables
696
397
400
1493
State of Maryland
• Number of Farms in Maryland: 8,278
• # of Acres Harvested in MD: 1,246,603
• Approximately 350,000 people are employed in some
aspect of agriculture, making it the largest commercial
industry in Maryland.
• Agriculture also remains the largest single land use in
the State, with 2.05 million acres, or roughly 32 percent
of total land area in farms in 2010.
• The Maryland agricultural industry contributes more than
$17 billion in revenue annually
Salisbury prices
close 8/8/12
Basis
Cash corn
12 fall corn
Cash soybeans
12 fall soybeans
August 2012 wheat
J/J 2013 wheat
9.07
8.37
.90 Dec 12
.20 Dec 12
16.40
15.41
.40 Sept 12
-.40 Nov 12
8.64
7.78
-.35 Sept 12
-.65 July 13
Salisbury prices
close 1/16/13
Basis
Cash corn
13 fall corn
7.71
5.98
.45
.10
Cash soybeans
13 fall soybeans
14.05
12.41
-.20
-.40
January 2013 wheat
7.18
7.25
-.60
J/J 2013 wheat
-.65
December 2013 Corn
November 2013 Soybean
July 2013 Wheat
University of Maryland Extension
U.S. Annual Average Corn Price, 1908-2005
$ Per Bushel
4.00
3.50
1942-1972
3.00
1908-1942
2.50
35 years
2.00
Avg $0.78
30 years
Avg $1.26
1.50
Source: USDA/NASS
2004
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
1960
1956
1952
1948
1944
1940
1936
1932
1928
1924
0.00
1920
Avg $2.37
1916
0.50
1912
33 years
1908
1.00
2000
1973-2005
Enterprise Budget
Price
(Revenue)
Contribution
Variable Costs
Break-even
Fixed Costs
Profit
Slide Adapted from: Dr. Wen-fei Uva
Department of Applied Economics and Management
Cornell University
Finding your
niche-Getting
things in the
right place.
CORN GRAIN, NO-TILL NON-IRRIGATED
ITEM
GROSS INCOME
CORN GRAIN
VARIABLE COSTS
SEED RR
SOIL TEST
NITROGEN
PHOSPHATE
POTASH
LIME
LUMAX
ATRAZINE
ROUNDUP
PER ACRE FOR
UNIT
Jan-13
QUANTITY
PRICE
TOTAL
BUSHEL
150
$5.68
$852.00
1000 SEEDS
ACRE
POUND
POUND
POUND
TON
QUART
QUART
QUART
28
1
150
30
60
0.5
2.5
0.5
1
$2.00
0.30
0.68
0.78
0.58
45.00
12.50
1.00
4.00
$56.00
0.30
102.00
23.40
34.80
22.50
31.25
0.50
4.00
1
25.49
25.49
150
0.20
30.00
0.5
5.5%
CROP INSURANCE (CRC 70%)
ACRE
DRYING FUEL
BUSHEL
INTEREST ON OPERATING CAPITAL
TOTAL VARIABLE COSTS LISTED ABOVE
$274.75
7.56
$337.80
FIXED/OVERHEAD COSTS (CUSTOM RATES ARE USED AS A PROXY FOR FIELD
OPERATION COSTS)
FERTILIZER SPREADING
NO-TILL PLANTING WITH FERTILIZER
NITROGEN APPLICATION
PESTICIDE APPLICATIONS
HARVESTING
HAULING
INTEREST ON SPRING CUSTOM CHARGES
ACRE
ACRE
ACRE
ACRE
ACRE
BUSHEL
LAND CHARGE
TOTAL FIXED COST LISTED ABOVE
ACRE
46.16
1
1
1
1
1
150
0.5
8.33
19.31
10.21
8.31
30.33
0.15
8.5%
1
60.00
8.33
19.31
10.21
8.31
30.33
22.50
1.96
60.00
$160.95
TOTAL VARIABLE AND FIXED COST LISTED ABOVE
$498.75
NET INCOME OVER VARIABLE & FIXED COSTS LISTED ABOVE
$353.25
PRICES
NET INCOME ABOVE VARIABLE AND
FIXED COSTS LISTED ABOVE FOR
VARIOUS YIELDS AND PRICES
YIELDS
112.5
150
187.5
$4.26
($19.50)
$140.25
$300.00
$5.68
$140.25
$353.25
$566.25
$7.10
$300.00
$566.25
$832.50
SOYBEANS RR READY
ITEM
GROSS INCOME
SOYBEANS
VARIABLE COSTS
SEED
SOIL TESTING
PER ACRE FOR
UNIT
Jan-13
QUANTITY
BUSHEL
PRICE
TOTAL
40
$11.91
$476.40
1000 SEEDS
ACRE
150
1
$0.36
0.30
$54.00
0.30
PHOSPHATE
POTASH
LIME
GRAMOXONE INTEON
ROUNDUP
WARRIOR
POUND
POUND
TON
PINT
QUART
OUNCE
45
40
0.5
2
1
3
0.78
0.58
45.00
2.87
4.00
2.34
35.10
23.20
22.50
5.74
4.00
7.02
CROP INSURANCE (CRC 70%)
ACRE
1
14.90
14.90
0.5
8.5%
6.45
INTEREST ON OPERATING CAPITAL
$151.86
TOTAL VARIABLE COSTS LISTED ABOVE
$173.21
FIXED/OVERHEAD COSTS (CUSTOM RATES ARE USED AS A PROXY FOR FIELD OPERATION COSTS)
FERTILIZER APPLICATION
SOYBEAN - NoTill
PESTICIDE APPLICATIONS
HARVESTING
HAULING
ACRE
ACRE
ACRE
ACRE
BUSHEL
INTEREST ON SPRING CUSTOM CHARGES
LAND CHARGE
TOTAL FIXED COST LISTED ABOVE
$51.08
ACRE
1
1
3
1
40
8.33
17.82
8.31
29.92
0.15
0.5
5.5% $
1
60.00
8.33
17.82
24.93
29.92
6.00
1.40
60.00
$148.40
TOTAL VARIABLE AND FIXED COST LISTED ABOVE
$321.62
NET INCOME OVER VARIABLE & FIXED COSTS LISTED ABOVE
$154.78
NET INCOME ABOVE VARIABLE AND
FIXED COSTS LISTED ABOVE FOR
VARIOUS YIELDS AND PRICES
YIELDS
30
40
50
$8.93
($53.64)
$35.68
$125.01
PRICES
$11.91
$35.68
$154.78
$273.88
$14.89
$125.01
$273.88
$422.76
WHEAT
ITEM
GROSS INCOME
WHEAT
VARIABLE COSTS
SEED
SOIL TESTING
NITROGEN
PHOSPHATE
POTASH
LIME
PER ACRE FOR
UNIT
Jan-13
QUANTITY
PRICE
TOTAL
BUSHEL
75
$6.85
$513.75
POUND
ACRE
POUND
POUND
POUND
TON
150
1
70
40
40
0.5
$0.25
0.30
0.68
0.78
0.58
45.00
$37.50
0.30
47.60
31.20
23.20
22.50
HARMONY GT XP
TILT
WARRIOR
OSPREY
OUNCE
OUNCE
OUNCE
OUNCE
0.5
4
3
4.75
11.00
1.93
2.34
3.03
5.50
7.72
7.02
14.39
CROP INSURANCE (CRC 70%)
ACRE
INTEREST ON OPERATING CAPITAL
TOTAL VARIABLE COSTS LISTED ABOVE
1.00
$196.93
13.15
13.15
0.5
8.5%
8.37
$218.45
2
2
1
2
1
75
0.5
$8.33
16.88
17.12
8.31
29.97
0.15
5.5%
$16.66
33.76
17.12
16.62
29.97
11.25
2.31
1
60.00
60.00
$187.69
FIXED/OVERHEAD COSTS (CUSTOM RATES ARE USED AS A PROXY FOR FIELD OPERATION COSTS)
SPREADING FERTILIZER
VERTICAL TILLAGE
BROADCAST SEEDING
PESTICIDE APPLICATION
HARVESTING
HAULING
INTEREST ON FALL CUSTOM CHARGES
ACRE
ACRE
ACRE
ACRE
ACRE
BUSHEL
LAND CHARGE
TOTAL FIXED COST LISTED ABOVE
ACRE
$84.16
TOTAL VARIABLE AND FIXED COST LISTED ABOVE
$406.15
NET INCOME OVER VARIABLE & FIXED COSTS LISTED ABOVE
NET INCOME ABOVE VARIABLE AND
FIXED COSTS LISTED ABOVE FOR
VARIOUS YIELDS AND PRICES
$107.60
YIELDS
56.25
75
93.75
$5.14
($117.16)
($20.83)
$75.49
PRICES
$6.85
($20.83)
$107.60
$236.04
$8.56
$75.49
$236.04
$396.59
CORN GRAIN, NO-TILL, POULTRY LITTER
PER ACRE FOR
ITEM
GROSS INCOME
CORN GRAIN
VARIABLE COSTS
SEED RR
SOIL TEST
NITROGEN
PHOSPHATE
POTASH
POULTRY LITTER 70.44-59.42-46.86 lbs/ton
LIME
LUMAX
ATRAZINE
ROUNDUP
UNIT
QUANTITY
150
$5.68
$852.00
1000 SEEDS
ACRE
POUND
POUND
POUND
TON
TON
QUART
QUART
QUART
28
1
80
0
0
2
0.5
2.5
0.5
1
$2.00
0.30
0.68
0.78
0.58
12.00
45.00
12.50
1.00
4.00
$56.00
0.30
54.40
0.00
0.00
24.00
22.50
31.25
0.50
4.00
1
25.49
25.49
150
0.40
60.00
0.5
5.5%
5.31
$283.75
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
150
0.5
20.50
10.67
7.88
16.88
19.31
10.21
8.31
30.33
0.15
8.5%
41.00
21.34
15.76
16.88
19.31
10.21
8.31
30.33
22.50
3.90
1
60.00
60.00
$249.54
$533.29
$318.71
$4.26
($54.04)
$105.71
$265.46
PRICES
$5.68
$105.71
$318.71
$531.71
ACRE
DRYING FUEL
BUSHEL
INTEREST ON OPERATING CAPITAL
$192.95
TOTAL VARIABLE COSTS LISTED ABOVE
FIXED/OVERHEAD COSTS (CUSTOM RATES ARE USED AS A PROXY FOR FIELD OPERATION
COSTS)
MANURE HAULING
TON
MANURE LOADING
TON
MANURE SPREADING - LITTER
TON
MINIMAL TILLAGE
ACRE
NO-TILL PLANTING
ACRE
NITROGEN APPLICATION
ACRE
PESTICIDE APPLICATIONS
ACRE
HARVESTING
ACRE
HAULING
BUSHEL
INTEREST ON SPRING CUSTOM CHARGES
91.81
NET INCOME ABOVE VARIABLE AND
FIXED COSTS LISTED ABOVE FOR
VARIOUS YIELDS AND PRICES
TOTAL
PRICE
BUSHEL
CROP INSURANCE (CRC 70%)
LAND CHARGE
TOTAL FIXED COST LISTED ABOVE
TOTAL VARIABLE AND FIXED COST LISTED ABOVE
NET INCOME OVER VARIABLE & FIXED COSTS LISTED ABOVE
Jan-13
ACRE
YIELDS
112.5
150
187.5
$7.10
$265.46
$531.71
$797.96
“Any Questions?”
Ben Beale
University of Maryland Extension
301 475 4481
[email protected]