Transcript Bureau of Labor Statistics

Labor Market Information
and the Power of Partnership
Presented to
Making Connections!
An ALMIS Database Seminar
August 16, 2005
Richard J. Holden
Regional Commissioner-San Francisco
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Today’s Presentation
• A Plea for Indulgence
• The U.S. Economy
• Other Themes—Competition,
Privacy, Globalism and
EconoDemographics
• Working Together
U.S. nonfarm employees
1990-2005
140,000
140,000
July 2005
Level: 133,786
Change: +207
Jan05
Jan04
Jan03
Jan02
Jan01
Jan00
Jan99
Jan98
Jan97
100,000
Jan96
100,000
Jan95
110,000
Jan94
110,000
Jan93
120,000
Jan92
120,000
Jan91
130,000
Jan90
130,000
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
J an-
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Unemployment rate
1990-2005
9.0
9.0
8.0
July 2005
Level: 5.0
Change: 0.0
8.0
7.0
7.0
6.0
6.0
5.0
5.0
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
300
250
86
94
27
-100
-54
3
123
96
117
83
94
282
200
106
130
300
188
132
155
124
122
Jul- 0
5
320
Jul- 0
4
Aug04
Sep04
Oc t04
No v
-04
Dec 04
Jan05
Feb05
Mar05
Ap r05
May
-05
Jun05
0
Jul- 0
3
Aug03
Sep03
Oc t03
No v
-03
Dec 03
Jan04
Feb04
Mar04
Ap r04
May
-04
Jun04
Feb03
Mar03
Ap r03
May
-03
Jun03
100
Jan03
400
Nonfarm employment change,
2003-05
337
292
207
166
126
83
2
-26
-122
-200
-218
-300
U. S. Economy
• Slow but steady growth out of a
shallow recession
• Global competition
• Geopolitical events
• Changing demographics
• Ubiquitous communications
U. S. Economy
• After a long rise out of the 90s and
the slowdown of the early 2000s,
patterns are unclear
• Does anyone really know what
time it is?
Competition--Private
• US labor competing on wage rates
and skills
• Private sector competition that
pushes out inefficiencies
• Private vs. public sector services
– Call centers
– Security services
Competition--Public
* Competition within government
– Federal Government competitions
– Within agency—turf battles
– Fed-state-local competition
• WIA example
• Competition is permanent feature
of our landscape
Privacy
• Digital technology and communications
have created new opportunities to profile,
target market, and, yes, invade privacy
• Competitive intelligence
• Concern over government use of
information
• Implications for survey collection
Globalism
• Digital technology, the prevalence of air
travel, and a weak dollar have started a
flood of goods, services, and culture
• Designed in the U.S., built elsewhere
• Designed and built elsewhere, sold here
20
-20
-37
-54
-74
-100
-25
-13 -18 -14
-20
-2
24
25
10
-3 -3
14
-14
-8 -7 -3
-6
-27
-15
Jul- 0
5
32
Jul- 0
4
Aug04
Sep04
Oc t04
No v
-04
Dec 04
Jan05
Feb05
Mar05
Ap r05
May
-05
Jun05
-57
Jul- 0
3
Aug03
Sep03
Oc t03
No v
-03
Dec 03
Jan04
Feb04
Mar04
Ap r04
May
-04
Jun04
Feb03
Mar03
Ap r03
May
-03
Jun03
-60
Jan03
100
Manufacturing employment
monthly change, 2003-05
60
1
-4
-21
-60 -61
-84
-111
-140
-180
Globalism
• Globalism within the U.S.—the ubiquitous
chain stores and restaurants in Anywhere ,
USA
• Our Global Face—Hollywood and American
Commercialism
• We are affecting, as well as being affected by
global trends and markets—culture, labor
and financial
• Do housing run-ups derive from Int’l mkts?
Globalism
• Where is this change most apparent?
• The West and the Pacific Rim
• Immigration, International Trade,
Culture
• Technology
• Perhaps the new vision for a global/local
village will develop here
EconoDemographics
• In the US and abroad, large shifts in
population—aging, immigration, and
participation
• Changing market baskets of goods and services
• New mix of labor supply—age and ethnicity
• Consequent budgetary implications
Unemployment rate by ethnicity,
1990-2005
20.0
15.0
Blacks or African Americans
Percent
10.0
Hispanic or Latino
ethnicity
5.0
Whites
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
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0.0
Employment-population ratios
for adults and teenagers, 1948-2005
100
90
Adult men
80
70
Percent
Adult women
60
50
40
Teenagers
30
20
10
0
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
Full- and part-time employment,
2000-2005
Number in thousands
116,000
26,000
115,500
25,500
115,000
25,000
Full time
114,500
24,500
114,000
24,000
113,500
23,500
Part time
113,000
23,000
112,500
22,500
112,000
22,000
111,500
21,500
111,000
21,000
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Temporary help services
employment, 1990-2005
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
July 2005
Level: 2,525.1
Change: -2.4
1,500
1,000
1,000
Jan05
Jan04
Jan03
Jan02
Jan01
Jan00
Jan99
Jan98
Jan97
Jan96
Jan95
Jan94
Jan93
Jan92
500
Jan91
500
Jan90
1,500
EconoDemographics
• Current debate over government’s role—
entitlement or empowerment
• What do we believe in, or aspire to, in our
society?
• How does our society pay for aspirations,
once we agree?
• Who pays the bills? Current or future
generations?
Population, projected 2012
Men
Women
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
12
10
8
6
4
Millions
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
0
0
Age
2
4
6
Millions
8
10
12
Labor force participation rate by sex
100
86.4
Men
73.1
80
Percent
60
Total
61.6
40
20
33.9
Women
1952
1962
0
1972
1982
1992
2002
2012,
projected
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
EconoDemographics
• What is the proper mix of aspiration
and practicality (the A/P index)
• The proportion of our dreams to our
means. What we can reasonably wish
for in our world in our time.
• What does that mean for those of us in
service and for our institutions?
BLS Federal and State
Programs
• Employers need accurate, impartial
information to make good business
decisions
• Many of the series are available at
National, State, and Metropolitan levels
• Internet-accessible, user-friendly,
reliable, consistent, etc.
• It may be necessary, but is it sufficient?
In Service: What do we
need to do?
• All the attention we have paid to digital
information has been valuable
• However, larger forces are acting in
unknown ways on our business
• Our business is becoming increasingly
competitive, global, and subject to
economic and demographic movements
In Service: What do we
need to do?
• Be ready to compete, understand our
world, and respond to changing needs in
the state, the nation, and the world
• Pay attention to the Power of Partnership
within our workforce information system
Mechanisms of
Partnership
• Workforce Investment Act of 1998
• Workforce Information Council
– BLS
– ETA
– Elected State Representatives
• Cooperative Management—A New
Governance
Mechanisms of
Partnership
• WIC Chartered Policy Councils and Work
Groups
– BLS Programs
• CES
• LAUS/MLS
• OES
• QCEW
– Work groups on Confidential Data, Job
Vacancies and Benefits Surveys
Benefits of Partnership
• Cooperative Management Works to the
Benefit of Both Federal and State
Programs
• Joint Plans Build on the Strengths in
Federal and State Agencies—Funding,
Expertise, Customer Focus, and Local
Knowledge
Benefits of Partnership
• Collaboration between federal and state
partners—the ALMIS Database
• Collaboration across states--various
“Front-End” Efforts Like Workforce
Explorer
• Supporting a system of information
• Developing a shared vision
Evidence of Demand
• LMI Web sites had 34 million sessions in
2004
• 17 million copies of LMI publications
distributed
• Training and service
• Improved products and services
• This conference
The Logical Consequence
• Global, competitive economy affects
private and public business
• Shared governance and collaboration
supports efficiency and customer
demands
• We are better together than the sum of
our parts
The Logical Consequence
• Example in BLS programs
– Improved Statistical Measures—core
function
– BLS/Census Joint Efforts--demand
– Location Quotient Calculator--demand
– Geographic Information System Mapping—
demand
• Ongoing improvements testify to the
power of partnership
Thank you
Richard Holden,
Regional Commissioner
415-975-4373
[email protected]
BLS Website
www.bls.gov
Web Features
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Alphabetical Glossary
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Construction employment
1990-2005
8,000
8,000
February 2005
Level: 7,166,000
Change: +30,000
7,000
7,000
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
Jan-
4,000
Jan-
4,000
91
5,000
Jan-
5,000
90
6,000
Jan-
6,000
Selected professional and business
services change, February 2005
3.4
Accounting and bookkeeping services
Professional and business services:
+81
7.1
Architectural and engineering services
0.4
Computer systems design and related services
3.4
Management and technical consulting services
Temporary help services
30.3
2.6
Business support services
Services to buildings and dwellings
14.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Health care employment monthly
change, February 2005
Ambulatory health
care services
11.7
Health care:
+23.2
5.1
Offices of physicians
Outpatient care
centers
0.5
Home health care
services
2.6
Hospitals
6.4
Nursing and residential
care facilities
Seasonally adjusted, in thousands
5.1
0
5
10
15
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
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Unemployment rates
for teens and adults, 1990-2005
25.0
Teenagers
20.0
Percent
15.0
10.0
Adult men
Adult women
5.0
0.0
A healthy economy is projected
through 2012
Selected economic variables
5.2
3.0
2.1
GDP
(annual growth
rate, projected
2002-12)
Unemployment
rate, 2012
(assumed)
Productivity
(annual growth
rate, projected
2002-12)
Business investment and exports
show fast growth (annual %)
1982-92
1992-2002
2002-12, projected
7.5
5.0
5.9 5.5
5.7
3.4 3.7 2.8
3.9
3.0
2.0 1.6
Imports
Personal
consumption
expenditures
Exports
-5.2
-7.4
-8.7
Gross
private
domestic
investment
Government
purchases
Service-providing industries continue to
lead employment growth
129
109
Millions of nonfarm, wage and salary jobs
88
22
23
23
Goods producing
1992
2002
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2012,
projected
Service providing
1992
2002
2012,
projected
The 10 detailed industries with the
largest employment gains
1,764
Employment services
1,342
Local government educational services
Offices of physicians
770
Educational services, private
759
Full-service restaurants
641
Computer systems design and related services
635
Hospitals, private
632
Limited-service eating places
518
Building equipment contractors
433
Management, scientific, and technical consulting
services
406
State and local government and education and
health services were more than one-fourth of
employment in 2002
State and local government
Education, health, and social assistance
Professional and business services
Manufacturing
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
Financial activities
Construction
Other services
Wholesale trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Federal Government
Utilities
Mining
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
18,722
16,184
16,010
15,307
15,047
11,969
7,843
6,732
6,105
5,641
4,205
Service Providing
3,420
Goods Producing
2,767
600
512
BLS’ Occupational Projections
• States underlying assumptions clearly and presents
model-based findings
• Projections are based on a long-term view of the
economy
• Assumes a long-run full-employment economy
Eleven major occupations are projected to
gain more than one million jobs (000s)
2,109
Education, training, and library
1,971
Sales and related
1,708
Healthcare practitioners and technical
Office and administrative support
1,613
Food preparation and serving related
1,607
Transportation and material moving
Management
1,282
1,221
Business and financial operations
1,162
Healthcare support
1,143
Construction and extraction
Computer and mathematical science
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1,096
1,051
Major occupational groups projected to
grow faster than average, 2002-12 (%)
Computer and mathematical science
35
Healthcare support
35
Community and social services
26
Healthcare practitioners and technical
26
Education, training, and library
25
Protective service
25
Business and financial operations
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
21
Major occupational groups projected to
grow faster than average, 2002-12 (%)
21
Personal care and service
Life, physical and social science
17
Art, design, entertainment, sports, and media
17
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance
16
Legal
16
Food preparation and serving
16
Construction and extraction
15
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Occupations with the most openings for
new entrants
Thousands, projected 2002-12
454
Cashiers, except gaming
596
Retail salespersons
862
Registered nurses
310
Office clerks, general
Postsecondary teachers
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1,079
454
Combined food preparation and serving
workers, including fast food
General and operations managers
1,482
367
Waiters and waitresses
Laborers and freight, stock, and material
movers, hand
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and
housekeeping cleaners
1,670
623
478
357
662
603
Net replacement needs
147
729
414
430
376
386
Change in employment
Population and labor force
continue to grow
Millions
242
218
193
162
145
128
Population
1992
2002
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2012,
projected
Labor force
1992
2002
2012,
projected
The size of the labor force aged 55-64 will
greatly increase by 2012 (000s)
65 and older
1,941
8,308
55 to 64
4,429
45 to 54
35 to 44
-2,493
25 to 34
16 to 24
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
3,210
2,011
The proportion of the labor force
ages 55-64 will grow rapidly to 2012 (%)
43
65 and older
51
55 to 64
14
45 to 54
-7
35 to 44
25 to 34
10
16 to 24
9
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics