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Climate change and transport in developing nations Lloyd Wright Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH The transport sector and greenhouse gas emissions Sector Percent of total emissions Average growth rate (1990-1995) Industry 42% 0.4 Transport 26% 2.4 Residential buildings 20% 1.0 Commercial buildings 9% 1.0 Agriculture 3% 0.8 100% 1.0 Total Transport and the UNFCCC mechanisms Programme Total number of projects Number of transport projects 186 projects 0 projects Finland 7 CDM projects 5 JI projects 0 projects Netherlands (ERUPT / CERUPT) 18 CDM projects 8 JI projects 0 projects World Bank (Prototype Carbon Fund) 9 CDM projects 4 JI projects 0 projects Global Environment Facility (GEF) 566 13 (6 on fuel cells) Activities Implemented Jointly Framework for transport emissions Transport emissions per mode = Number of vehicles Mode share (behaviour) Affordability Comfort Convenience Load factor Safety Security Travel time x Distance travelled Land-use (urban form) Land-use Zoning Route structure Vehicle mgmt. x Emissions per vehicle distance travelled Fuel efficiency (technology) Fuel type Propulsion system Maintenance Driver behaviour Dedicated lanes Dwell times Mode share versus technology Bus equivalents The impact of gaining one more bus load of passengers Assumptions: 120 passenger bus at 50% occupancy 5 people switching from autos, 35 switching from other motorised vehicles, and 15 switching from non-motorised transport Source: International Energy Agency, 2002 Conclusions of mode share vs. technology “Regardless of whether a bus is ‘clean’ or ‘dirty’, if it is reasonably full it can displace anywhere from 5 to 50 other motorised vehicles...” “Certainly, a cleaner bus will yield lower emissions, but in this scenario the emission reductions from technology choice are overshadowed by reductions from mode switching (and the resulting ‘subtraction’ of other vehicles)...Dramatic reductions in road space, fuel use, and most emissions can be achieved through displacing other vehicles with any bus, even the ‘Euro 0’ buses typically sold in the developing world.” Source: IEA, 2002 Bus rapid transit (BRT) Bus Rapid Transit is a mass transit system that mimics the rapidity and performance of metros but utilises buses rather than rail vehicles. Bus Rapid Transit € 0.3 - 10 million / km Bogotá’s “TransMilenio” BRT system By 2015, TransMilenio will serve 5 million passengers per day over 388 kilometers of busways. What do customers want? Aesthetically-pleasing environment Lighting and security Rapid boarding Courteous drivers Easy to understand maps TransMilenio greenhouse gas reductions Avoiding the “leakage” of older vehicles by scrapping 7.0 to 8.9 older buses for every new articulated bus introduced 20% of TransMilenio users formerly drove private vehicles Estimated greenhouse reductions for first 30 years of operation: 15 - 25 million metric tons of CO2-equivalents Complementary measures in Bogotá Ciclovía Sunday (120 km of car-free roadways) 250 km of high-quality cycleways World´s largest car-free weekday World’s longest pedestrian corridor Major effort to recuperate public space Restraints on car use Bogotá’s global impact Cities with BRT projects in development Accra, Ghana Cape Town, South Africa Dakar, Senegal Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Beijing, China Guatemala City, Guatemala Delhi, India Lima, Peru Hanoi, Vietnam Mexico City, Mexico Jakarta, Indonesia Santiago, Chile Replication Curitiba, Brazil Quito, Ecuador Rouen, France Nagoya, Japan Taipei, Taiwan Brisbane, Australia City transformations Seoul, South Korea GTZ Sourcebook “Sustainable Transport: A Sourcebook for Policy-Makers in Developing Cities” www.sutp.org Sample modules 1. Bus rapid transit 2. Non-motorised transport 3. Mass transit options 4. Bus sector reform 5. Mobility management 6. Inspection and maintenance 7. Air quality management The path to sustainable transport 1. To date, the transport sector has played a surprisingly small role in mitigation efforts under the UNFCCC mechanisms. 2. The current focus on fuel switching has meant that transport measures are generally not cost competitive or realizable in the short term (e.g., fuel cells). 3. However, shifting mode share from private motorised vehicles to public transport and non-motorised transport can enable the transport sector to compete in mitigation efforts.