Transcript Introducing a New Product - Multnomah Education Service

Free Software:
Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow
Eric Harrison
Multnomah Education Service District
1st, a few definitions
GNU: Gnu's Not Unix. A project to create a free
version of Unix. Also spawned the GNU Public
License (often refered to as copyleft).
Free: free as in free speech, not free beer. (libre
vs gratis)
Linux: the “kernel” that finished off the goal of the
GNU project.
BSD: Berkely Software Distribution. A derivative
from the original version of UNIX that was given
away by the University of California, Berkely.
Open Source: software who's source code is
available, but not necessarily free.
Yesterday
Until the early 80's, all software was free
Internet core was dominated by free software.
In the 80's several companies pushed software as
a proprietary product.
As a reaction to this the GNU project was formed
in 1985 to promote free software (free as in free
speech, not free as in free beer)
Early 90's:
a Finnish programmer makes the GNU project
whole by writing the Linux kernel.
BSD (an original UNIX derivative) is set free
Late 90's, GNU/Linux gains public attention
Today
Linux and Open Source take Wall Street by storm,
setting all-time-high IPO records.
Internet core is dominated by free software.
Stock Market tanks, Linux/Open Source based
companies hit hard. Most go out of business, or
are about to.
Red Hat, a Linux/Free software company makes
huge inroads into running Wall Street.
Apple bases its new operating system on BSD.
IBM, HP, Intel, AMD, and other huge companies
make huge commitments on Linux, on the server
side. Desktop ruled by Microsoft.
Tomorrow
Only two major systems left standing: free
software and Microsoft. All others reduced to tiny
niches or obliterated completely.
Microsoft looses a HUGE percentage of the
desktop market, but continues to grow in absolute
numbers. (90% of the world has yet to “choose” an operating
system. Only a small percentage will choose Microsoft).
Profits crash hard (doomed to repeat IBM?).
Internet core will be dominated by free software.
All key infrastructure is based on free software.
The desktop, as we know it, is gone.
Subversion, Disruption, Domination
Like IBM's mainframe monopoly of yore, the current
proprietary monopolies will be torn apart in three
stages:
1. The oppressive conditions of and unnatural monopoly
will force subversive behavior. This is economics 101.
2. Once the subversive activities gain enough momentum,
and the oppression grows unbearable, the combination
will force huge disruptions in the market.
3. After the subversives have proven themselves, they will
become the status-quo.
“First they laugh at you, then they fear you, then they fight you, then
you win.” -Ghandi
Linux as a Server
In the last ten years, Linux has gone from an
academic toy to heir to the server throne:
1991: version 0.1 released, it didn't even work. Academics
only. Laughable.
1995/1996: versions 1.2/2.0 released: usable for light-weight
“production” servers. Early adopters such as Cisco base their
global printer infrastructure on Linux. Fear, uncertainly, and
doubt.
2001: version 2.4, “data-center” class (after a long shakingout period). Backed by the heavy weights such as IBM, HP,
Intel, etc, etc. Gloves-off, down-and-dirty fighting.
2002-????: world domination. Wall Street, Google,
Hollywood, Supercomputers, department stores, IBM
mainframes, appliances, wrist watches. Linux showing up
everywhere.
What about the desktop?
Microsoft has a 90% share of the desktop, that ain't
going away soon. Right?
Novell used to have 90% of the LAN server market, Netscape
used to have 90% share of the browser market, etc, etc.
It was only about five years between DOS and Windows 95, and
about five years between Windows 95 and Windows 2000/XP. Ten
years to domination.
We're in year five for the Linux desktop, what will happen in the
next five years? Five more to domination?
What about free applications running on Windows and MacOS?
What about MacOS-X? The core of it is free. Will this hybrid
approach work for the desktop?
“Linux compatibility” is driving the server market, will this happen
to Microsoft and Apple on the desktop?
Links
This presentation:
http://k12linux.mesd.k12.or.us/nwrel/nwrel.ppt (powerpoint)
http://k12linux.mesd.k12.or.us/nwrel/ (html)
Brief history of Linux from
CNN:http://www.cnn.com/2000/TECH/computing/02/11/mini.linux.histo
ry.idg/
My lousy webpage: http://k12linux.mesd.k12.or.us
The K12Linux project page:http://www.k12linux.org
MESD's webfiltering site: http://squidguard.mesd.k12.or.us
A great speech on technology and schools by Red Hat's
CEO:http://www.technetcast.com/tnc_play_stream.html?stream_id=61
2
The Open Source NOW
project:http://www.redhat.com/opensourcenow/
Red Hat success stories: http://www.redhat.com/solutions/migration/
The GPL: http://www.fsf.org/licenses/gpl.html
http://www.linux.org, http://www.gnu.org, http://www.freebsd.org,
http://www.darwin.org, http://www.opensource.org