Transcript pegasysinstitute.org

Broadening the lens – regional
perspective on water, food and energy
integration in SADC
Barbara Schreiner
Stockholm September 2014
Outline
A perspective on regional water-energy integration in the
Southern African Development Community (SADC)
• Opportunities, constraints and uncertainties
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SADC water…
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…energy
• Only 5% of rural areas in the region
have access to electricity;
• 24 % of SADC’s residents have
access to electricity (36% in Eastern
Africa, 44 % in Western Africa);
• Electricity shortage in region since
2007
• Projects to address the shortage lag
behind deadline due to lack of
funding and capacity
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…agriculture and food
Agriculture contributes 4-27% of
GDP in SADC countries
70% of population depends on
agriculture for food, income,
employment
Mainly rain-fed agriculture
• Largely small-scale or subsistence
• Vulnerable to drought/low rainfall
• High level of chronic food insecurity
▪ 14 million people in 2013 (increase from
2012)
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Institutional context - water
Water: Revised SADC Protocol on Shared
Watercourses
• All SADC states have ratified
• Overarching objective (Article 2): “foster closer cooperation for
judicious, sustainable and coordinated management, protection and
utilization of shared watercourses, and advance SADC’s agenda of
regional integration and poverty alleviation
• Most significant shared river basins have basin level
agreements in place under the Protocol
Regional Strategic Action Plan
• Series of activities, but no regional water use
planning
Doesn’t deal with regional rather than basin
level water sharing
• E.g. water from Zambezi or Congo to South Africa
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Institutional context - energy
Southern African Power Pool
Established through intergovernmental
Memorandum of Understanding in August 1995
Guided by SADC Protocol on Energy (1996)
• Defines guidelines for cooperation including
▪ development and updating of regional electricity masterplan,
▪ development and utilisation of electricity in environmentally sound
manner, and
▪ emphasising need for universal access to affordable and quality
services.
SAPP Mandate:
• enhance regional cooperation in power development and trade
• provide non-binding regional masterplans to guide electricity
generation and transmission infrastructure delivery
• countries retain right to develop and prosecute their own
national plans.
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Institutional context - agriculture
CAADP - agricultural programme of NEPAD/African Union
• Established by AU assembly in 2003
• Goal: to eliminate hunger and reduce poverty through
agriculture
• Formulation of national and regional investment plans is one
of most important activities to implement CAADP
• 36 out of 54 countries in Africa have signed CAADP compacts
• Common framework for stimulating and guiding national,
regional and continental initiatives on enhanced agriculture
productivity and food security which each region and
country can develop and implement as preferred.
SADC Regional Agricultural Policy and regional CAADP
investment Plan
• acknowledges that water use and management, in particular
at regional level, require an integrated approach that takes
into account water, energy and land issues
Enter Presentation Title
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Regional Frameworks
Energy – Regional
Masterplan
Water: RSAP and
Regional
Infrastructure Master
Plan
Agriculture: Regional
Agricultural Policy
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Regional perspectives
Regionalised power
Shared river basins
Enter Presentation Title
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Opportunities - energy
Overall
hydropower
potential in SADC
estimated at
around 1,080
terawatt hours
per year
(TWh/year)
• Capacity currently
utilised is just
under 31
TWh/year
Large natural gas
reserves
Proven natural gas reserves (bcm)
160
Angola
140
120
100
80
Mozambique
60
Namibia
40
Tanzania
South Africa
Tanzania
South Africa
20
0
Angola
Mozambique
Namibia
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Opportunities - agriculture
Diversity of crops across region
Abundance of arable land
Fisheries and forestry resources
Generally favourable climate for
agriculture
Large market for produce (277
million people in 2010)
16% of potential 20 million
hectares of irrigable land is used
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Current situation - energy
SAPP masterplans have demonstrated considerable
financial savings and other benefits of regional
cooperation
• YET: countries have continued to develop national plans for
achieving electricity self-sufficiency;
• Electricity trading in SAPP is mainly bilateral contracts
• 2012/13 - 28 bilateral contracts but only 15 of these were
active due to generation and transmission constraints
• Lack of continued investment in infrastructure by member
states alongside rapid economic growth
• Challenges in bilateral contract implementation
▪
▪
▪
Zambia – force majeure as reason to not meet electricity supply
agreement Zimbabwe
Seen as result of inadequate investment and management rather
than natural causes
Profoundly negative impact on the integration of the region through
electricity.
Enter Presentation Title
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Current situation - water
Basin level agreements and organisations in place in
most transboundary basins in SADC
• Four modalities of transboundary infrastructure projects
for water and/or energy
▪ national projects with transboundary impacts;
▪ joint projects between states;
▪ infrastructure developed in one or more countries for regional
benefit; or
▪ regional benefits arising from a regional decision-making process
• YET:
▪ Little regional infrastructure being developed
▪ Few (if any) truly regional water projects planned
▪ There is a regional infrastructure master plan – consisting largely of
national infrastructure projects, not a regional view of water
infrastructure opportunities
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Current situation - agriculture
SADC national and regional agricultural
planning and investment takes place
without adequate consultation of the
water sector
Despite CAADP offering good ideas at the
broad continental level these have not
translated into better coordination of
relevant stakeholders for agriculture and
water management for in SADC
• Low MS commitment w.r.t regional
integration
• Sufficiency of water availability
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National vs regional
Regional energy masterplan based on minimising financial
cost
• Dependent on South African energy choices (regional hydropower rather
than national nuclear)
South African IRP was based on multi-criteria approach
•
•
•
•
•
minimise carbon emissions,
maximise local employment creation, economic and social benefits,
mitigate uncertainties associated with renewable energy technologies,
minimise water usage.
Support for regional development considered in IRP but weighting less
than other factors
• Different results
National plans developed without considering regional
opportunities
• = sub-optimal developments
• Sovereign security advantages often override technical and economic
considerations at regional level
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Climate change – the key uncertainty
Temperature
increases above
global average
Increases in climate
variability
• Potential impacts on
hydropower
Downscaling under
different GCMs
doesn’t always reveal
the same response
Rainfall:
runoff/recharge
response unclear
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Regional integration in SADC
Major opportunities
• Framework of regional integration
• Policy and institutional frameworks support regional approach
• Opportunities based on harnessing different resource
endowments and water-food-energy needs of countries
• Opportunities for synergy between energy and agricultural sectors
Constraints:
• Regional perspective is challenging within one sector, let alone
across sectors
• Requires multi-sector planning approaches and multi-criteria
approach to selection of project options
▪
Alignment of regional and national approaches
• Incorporation of sovereign food, electricity and water security
national interests
▪
Demonstration of national benefits of integration, and addressing legitimate
national security and political concerns
• Practical implementation capacity – e.g. planning, project
preparation, project implementation
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