Transcript Exploring Differences in Employment between Household and

Exploring Differences in Employment
between Household and Establishment Data
Katharine G. Abraham, University of Maryland and NBER
John Haltiwanger, University of Maryland and NBER
Kristin Sandusky, U.S. Census Bureau
James Spletzer, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Overview
 Employer survey (CES) employment grew faster
than household survey (CPS) employment from
1997 through 2001, but CPS employment outpaced
CES employment from 2001 to 2003
 Similar cyclical pattern observed in other
periods
 Discrepancies have provoked much discussion but
remain a puzzle
 We use CPS records matched to UI wage records
for the same individuals to explore sources of
discrepancy between employer-reported and
household-reported employment
CPS versus CES employment
CPS employment
CES employment
 Person totals
controlled to Census
population estimates
 Payroll period including
the 12th
 Employment counts
benchmarked to
administrative data
 Number of people
 Includes wage and
salary, self-employed,
unpaid family workers
 Worked 1 hour, or with
a job but not at work
 Week of 12th
 Number of jobs
 Includes only nonfarm wage and salary
workers
 On payroll
Adjusted CPS employment, 2004
(in thousands)
Payroll jobs (CES)
131,480
Household employment (CPS)
139,252
Less:
Agriculture
2,232
Nonagricultural self-employed
9,467
Nonag. unpaid family workers
90
Private household workers
Unpaid absences
Total
Plus: Multiple jobholders
Adjusted household employment
779
1,926
14,493
7,067
131,825
Chart 2. Ratio of establishment survey
employment to household survey nonagricultural
wage and salary employment, 1948-2004
1.06
1.06
1.05
1.05
1.04
1.04
1.03
1.03
1.02
1.02
1.01
1.01
1.00
1.00
0.99
0.99
0.98
0.98
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
What explains recent discrepancies in
CPS and CES employment trends?
 Sampling error in the two surveys
 Persons under age 16 and members of the
institutionalized population excluded from
the CPS employment counts
 Possible issues with the treatment of
government-subsidized jobs
 Incomplete accounting for multiple jobs in
the adjusted CPS employment series
 Adjusted series ignores jobs beyond 2nd job
 Adjusted series ignores secondary civilian jobs
held by those in the Armed Forces
What explains recent discrepancies in CPS
and CES employment trends? (cont’d)
 Benchmarking of the CES estimates
 Population controls used for CPS estimates
 Classification of CPS jobs as wage-andsalary employment versus self-employment
 Missing marginal jobs in CPS
 Missing “off-the-books” or non-standard
employment in CES
 Pro-cyclical turnover that affects number of
jobs during longer CES payroll periods
relative to single CPS reference week
Measurement framework
Linked CPS-UI
wage records
microdata
Individual
holds job
in CPS
Individual holds job in UI
No
Yes
No
X1
X2
Yes
X3
X4
Measurement framework
Number of persons employed in UI
X2 + X4
Number of persons employed in CPS
X3 + X 4
Difference in number of persons
employed (UI - CPS)
X2 – X3
Measurement framework
People holding stated
number of jobs in UI
Linked CPS-UI
wage records
microdata,
X4 sample
People
holding
stated
number of
jobs in CPS
One
Two plus
One
Y1
Y2
Two
plus
Y3
Y4
Measurement framework
Number of multiple job holders in UI
Y2 + Y4 (+ part X2 )
Number of multiple job holders in CPS
Y3 + Y4 (+ part X3 )
Difference in number of multiple job holders
(UI – CPS)
Y2 – Y3 (+ part X2 – part X3 )
Measurement framework
Marginal (short duration or low earnings)
jobs that are not reported by household
survey respondents grow in number during
business cycle expansions
X2 procyclical
Y2 procyclical
”Off-the-books” or non-standard jobs that
are not reported by employers shrink in
number during business cycle expansions
X3 countercyclical
Y3 countercyclical
Increases in the job-changing rate during
business cycle expansions lead to relative
increases in employment counts
Y2 procyclical
Research strategy
 Use UI and CPS data to study levels and changes
over time in number of people by employment
status (X2, X3) and job count classification (Y2, Y3)
 Are aggregate movements consistent with our
hypotheses?
 Examine characteristics of people and jobs in
different cells
 Are personal and job characteristics of people in
different cells consistent with our hypotheses?
 Use information on changes in person and job
characteristics over time to simulate movements in
X2, X3, Y2, Y3 series
 Do simulated series reproduce the discrepancy that
motivated our study?
Linking CPS and UI records
 Census Longitudinal Employer-Household
Dynamics (LEHD) program has UI wage
record data for 17 states from 1996 to
present
 CPS data monthly and UI data quarterly
 Need to construct quarterly CPS records for
comparison with quarterly UI records for same
individuals
 Protected Identity Key (PIK) based on SSN
available for 70-80 percent of March CPS
supplement responses and all UI wage
records
Analysis sample
 Analysis sample consists of March CPS respondents
age 16 and older who live in 16 states covered by
LEHD data (17 states minus Maryland)
 Maryland dropped because more than 15 percent of
residents work in another state or DC
 Because quarterly information required for
comparisons with UI data, sample limited to those
with CPS responses for January, February and March
 Because CPS records must be matched to the UI wage
records, sample limited to CPS records with a PIK
 Propensity score methods used to adjust CPS weights
to account for sample restrictions
Constructing quarterly employment
records
 In both data sets, in-scope employment
includes individuals with a non-agricultural
private sector, state government or local
government wage-and-salary job
 Information on job changes and multiple jobs
held simultaneously used to categorize people
as holding one in-scope job or two plus inscope jobs in CPS
 Most certain a job change has occurred if question
asked and answered directly, but not always asked
 Multiple job question asked every month, but class of
second job asked only in outgoing rotation group
 Will discuss results for more restrictive of two criteria
 Number of jobs in UI data based on number of
wage records
Trends in national CES versus CPS,
linked sample UI versus CPS
145,000
Figure 2a-1: CPS - CES Employment Trends
National, All Sectors, March Employment, SA
115
135,000
110
125,000
105
115,000
100
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
CPS
CES
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
CPS
CES
70,000
Figure 2e-1: CPS - UI Employment Trends
16 States, PSL, 1st Quarter Employment, NSA
118
65,000
112
60,000
106
55,000
100
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
CPS (w eighted)
UI (w eighted)
Figure 2a-2: CPS - CES Employment Trends
National, All Sectors, March Employment, SA
Figure 2e-2: CPS - UI Employment Trends
16 States, PSL, 1st Quarter Employment, NSA
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
CPS (w eighted)
UI (w eighted)
Discrepancies in employment
status, 1996-2003
Not in-scope
worker in UI
In-scope
worker in UI
Overall share
37.1%
3.4%
Row share
91.7%
8.3%
Column share
77.9%
6.4%
Overall share
10.5%
49.1%
Row share
17.6%
82.4%
Column share
22.1%
93.6%
Not in-scope worker in CPS
In-scope worker in CPS
Discrepancies in job count status,
restrictive CPS classification, 1996-2003
Single wage and
salary job in UI
Two plus wage and
salary jobs in UI
Single wage and salary job in CPS
Overall share
81.3%
10.4%
Row share
88.7%
11.3%
Column share
95.6%
69.2%
Two plus wage and salary jobs in CPS
Overall share
3.7%
4.6%
Row share
44.6%
55.4%
Column share
4.4%
30.8%
Trend in X2 and X3
12
9
6
3
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
X2: Employed in UI, not in CPS
2000
2001
2002
2003
X3: Employed in CPS, not in UI
Trend in Y2 and Y3, more restrictive
CPS multiple job definition
6
4
2
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Y2: Multiple Job Holder in UI, 1 Job in CPS
Y3: Multiple Job Holder in CPS, 1 Job in UI
2003
Which people would we expect to
find in X2 and X3?
 Expect people in X2 to hold jobs they consider
marginal
 Personal characteristics: young (students), older
(retired)
 Job characteristics: short duration, low hours, low
earnings
 Expect people in X3 to hold “off-the-books” or nonstandard jobs
 Personal characteristics: older, less than high school
education, college or higher education
 Job characteristics: short duration, low hours, low
earnings; types of work (industries and occupations)
in which there are many non-wage-and-salary
workers (self-employed, contractors, consultants)
Factors affecting probability in-scope UI
worker not an in-scope CPS worker (X2)
Age 16-24
-0.021**
Male
Age 25-34
-0.005
Married
0.006**
-0.009**
Age 55-64
0.019**
Foreign-born
0.026**
Age 65 plus
0.088**
Non-proxy interview
0.006**
Less than high school
0.007*
Any long UI jobs?
-0.201**
Two or more UI jobs?
-0.018**
Some college
-0.000
College graduate
0.002
UI earnings under $1K
0.280**
More than college
0.010*
UI earnings $1K-$2.5K
0.057**
Black
0.022**
UI earnings $12.5K-$25K
-0.012**
UI earnings over $25K
-0.000
Other nonwhite
0.009*
Factors affecting probability in-scope CPS
worker not an in-scope UI worker (X3)
Age 16-24
-0.026**
Male
Age 25-34
-0.020**
Married
Age 55-64
0.029**
Foreign-born
0.040**
Age 65 plus
0.105**
Non-proxy interview
-0.004
Less than high school
0.018*
Work discontinuity?
0.152**
Some college
0.006
Probability a contractor
0.091**
College graduate
0.017**
Any full-time jobs
More than college
0.055*
Black
Other nonwhite
-0.019**
0.006
0.025**
-0.008*
-0.066**
Which people would we expect to
find in Y2 and Y3?
 Expect people in Y2 to hold marginal second jobs
and/or have two jobs counted when they change
employer
 Personal characteristics: young (high turnover)
 Job characteristics: short duration, low hours, low
earnings
 Expect people in Y3 to hold “off-the-books” or nonstandard jobs
 Personal characteristics: older, less than high school
education, college or higher education
 Job characteristics: short duration, low hours, low
earnings; types of work (industries and occupations)
in which there are many non-wage-and-salary
workers (self-employed, contractors, consultants)
Factors affecting probability UI multiple job
holder has only a single CPS job (Y2, restrictive)
Age 16-24
0.002
Male
0.007
Age 25-34
0.031*
Married
Age 55-64
0.035
Foreign-born
Age 65 plus
0.062
Non-proxy interview
-0.026*
Less than high school
0.013
Any long 2nd UI jobs?
-0.110**
-0.028*
0.057**
Some college
-0.051*
Three or more UI jobs?
-0.002
College graduate
-0.060**
UI 2nd job under $1K
-0.014
More than college
-0.082**
UI 2nd job $1K-$2.5K
-0.157**
Black
0.097**
UI 2nd job $12.5K-$25K
0.210**
Other nonwhite
0.003
UI 2nd job over $25K
0.250**
Factors affecting probability CPS multiple job
holder has only a single UI job (Y3, restrictive)
Age 16-24
-0.117**
Male
Age 25-34
-0.033
Married
0.047**
-0.018
Age 55-64
0.087**
Foreign-born
0.031
Age 65 plus
0.012
Non-proxy interview
-0.040*
Less than high school
0.014
Simultaneous mult. jobs
-0.102**
Some college
0.004
Multiple jobs all 3 months
-0.060**
College graduate
0.045*
16+ hrs/wk on 2nd job(s)
-0.124**
More than college
0.117**
Black
-0.038
Other nonwhite
-0.037
Actual and predicted X2 and X3
12
9
6
3
0
1996
1997
X2 (Actual)
1998
1999
X2 (Predicted)
2000
2001
X3 (Actual)
2002
2003
X3 (Predicted)
Predicted shares of UI workers not
found in CPS (X2)
0.075
0.070
0.065
0.060
1996
1997
1998
Demographic Characteristics
All Characteristics
1999
2000
2001
2002
Job Characteristics
2003
Predicted shares of CPS workers
not found in UI (X3)
0.185
0.180
0.175
0.170
1996
1997
1998
Demographic Characteristics
All Characteristics
1999
2000
2001
2002
Job Characteristics
2003
Actual and predicted Y2 and Y3,
more restrictive CPS definition
6
4
2
0
1996
1997
Y2 (Actual)
1998
1999
Y2 (Predicted)
2000
2001
Y3 (Actual)
2002
2003
Y3 (Predicted)
Predicted shares of UI multiple job
holders with a single CPS job (Y2)
0.67
0.66
0.65
0.64
1996
1997
1998
1999
Demographic Characteristics
All Characteristics
2000
2001
2002
Job Characteristics
2003
Predicted shares of CPS multiple
job holders with a single UI job (Y3)
0.48
0.47
0.46
0.45
0.44
1996
1997
1998
1999
Demographic Characteristics
All Characteristics
2000
2001
2002
Job Characteristics
2003
Summary
 Large discrepancies at the micro level between
employment and job count status for same
individuals in UI and CPS data
 Characteristics of those in off-diagonal cells
generally consistent with expectations
 No single story about recent divergence between
UI (employer reported) and CPS (household
reported) employment
 Growth in number of multiple job holders in UI
not measured by CPS important 1996-1999
(marginal 2nd jobs, employee turnover)
 Growth in number of workers measured in CPS
but not UI important 2001-2003 (off-the-books or
non-standard jobs)
Comments and suggestions?
 This is work in progress and we would
appreciate your thoughts about what
we’ve done and next steps we should
take