Transcript Preliminary 2005 Budget and Financial Plan

MTA 2010
Preliminary Budget
July Financial Plan 2010 – 2013
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
July 2009 Financial Plan 2010-2013
1
February Financial Plan
Closing Cash Balance
($ in millions)
$50
$49
($50)
($290)
($150)
($250)
($457)
($612)
($350)
2009 Adopted Budget balanced only through large fare & toll
increases and significant service reductions.
($450)
23% Fare/Toll Yield Increase
Additional Actions for Budget Balance
2009
$704
261
2010
$1,183
401
($550)
($650)
2009
2010
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
2011
2012
July 2009 Financial Plan 2010-2013
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Financial Assistance for MTA
Enacted State legislation provides MTA with $1.1 billion in 2009 and
$1.9 billion in 2010 from the following sources:
All within the Metropolitan Commuter Transportation District:
Mobility Tax
0.34% tax on payroll expenses and net earnings from self
employment
2010 Forecast
($ in millions)
$1,540
Auto Registration Fee supplemental fee of $25 per year on the registration and renewal
registration of motor vehicles
$27
License Fee
supplemental fee of $1 for each 6 month period of validity of a
learner's permit or a driver's license
$182
Taxicab Tax
.50 cents per taxicab ride imposed on taxicab owners
$85
Auto Rental Tax
supplemental tax of 5% of the cost of rentals of automobiles
$35
MTA Board actions:
•Changed the scheduled fare/toll yield increase of 23% to 10%
•Restored planned reductions of scheduled service to the public
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
July 2009 Financial Plan 2010-2013
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Overview of the July Financial Plan
• Recognizes new revenue sources
• Lowers forecasted revenues from real estate
taxes, state dedicated taxes, and utilization
• Allocates higher funding for additional pension
expense
• Maintains service levels
• Provides funds for new Capital Plan
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
July 2009 Financial Plan 2010-2013
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Impact of the Worsening Economy
Plan-to-Plan Changes ($ in millions)
2009
Pensions
Real Estate Transaction Taxes
Utilization
State Dedicated Taxes
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
2010
2011
2012
($47)
(424)
(103)
(2)
($77)
(270)
(131)
(54)
($133)
(244)
(121)
(109)
($177)
(220)
(135)
(91)
($576)
($532)
($607)
($622)
July 2009 Financial Plan 2010-2013
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Pensions
Plan-to-Plan Changes
• The February Plan included a provision for losses in
the assets of the MTA Defined Benefit Plans and
MABSTOA
• The July Baseline includes additional expenses to
account for higher NYCERS costs based on a revised
actuarial valuation
• In addition, this plan establishes a reserve for
expected increases in NYCERS contributions ($27
million in 2010 growing to $189 million in 2013). Those
losses are expected in the NYCERS valuation for the
City fiscal year 2009 with cash impacts beginning in
late 2010
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
July 2009 Financial Plan 2010-2013
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Monthly Total Real Estate Taxes
2007 to 2009 Actuals
( in millions)
$160
158.4
152.2
151.9
2007 Actual
$140
2008 Actual
2009 Actual
134.9
128.6
$120
122.2
111.1
104.8
$100
86.3
$80
79.3
69.2
$60
64.2
$40
35.0
36.5
35.5
29.3
25.2
$20
28.6
$0
January
February
March
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
April
May
June
July 2009 Financial Plan 2010-2013
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Real Estate Transaction Tax Receipts
Declines Have Exceeded Previous Worst Case
July 2009 Financial Plan vs. February 2009 Financial Plan
$1,800
Reflects decreases from the February Financial Plan to the July Financial Plan.
$1,600
$1,400
Real Estate Taxes
($ in millions)
$1,200
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$1,282.8
$1,432.0
$1,587.0
$942.5
$456.7
$577.8
$637.8
$744.3
$842.1
2005-2008: Actual Receipts
2009-2013: July Plan
$200
$0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Blue curve represents adjusted real estate transactions taxes from 1983 through 1991.
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
July 2009 Financial Plan 2010-2013
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New York City Employment Change
Year-over-Year Change in Employment
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
n
Ja
06
6
7
8
6
7
8
7
8
9
6
7
8
9
6
7
8
9
6
7
8
r0
r0
r0
r0
n0
n0
n0
v0
v0
v0
y 0 Jul 0 ept 0
y 0 Jul 0 ept 0
y 0 Jul 0 ept 0
y0
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ma
No
Ma
No
Ma
No
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
Ma
S
S
S
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
July 2009 Financial Plan 2010-2013
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MTA Consolidated Ridership
(in millions)
2,720
2,700
2,705
2,680
2,677
2,660
2,657
2,640
2,626
2,620
2,608
2,600
2,588
2,580
2,560
2,540
2,520
2008
2009
2010
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
2011
2012
2013
July 2009 Financial Plan 2010-2013
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Changes from the February Financial Plan
($ in millions)
2009
2010
2011
February Closing Cash Balance
$49
Cash Carryover
265
49
0
0
MTA Policy & Gap Closing Actions
118
290
679
796
($334)
($629)
($1,136)
($1,408)
(572)
(913)
(903)
(907)
(47)
(33)
(26)
(93)
(103)
(131)
(121)
(135)
Other Adjustments
(83)
37
(50)
(59)
Subsidies (including New State Taxes & Fees)
885
1,618
1,643
1,760
Total Changes
$80
$577
$542
$567
($255)
($52)
($595)
($842)
20
62
557
489
Cash Carryover
263
29
39
1
July Plan Net Cash Balance after Carryover & Gap Closing
$29
$39
$1
February Cash Balance before Carryover and Policy & Gap Closing
Board Actions (AABB Restorations; Change in Fare/Toll Increase)
New Needs/Investments
Baseline Passenger/Toll Revenue
July Baseline Cash Balance
MTA Policy & Cash Management Actions and Gap Closing Programs
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
($290)
2012
($457)
($612)
($352)
July 2009 Financial Plan 2010-2013
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2009/10 Expenditure Control
2010 Savings
2009 PEG Program & Maintained AABBs
2010 PEG Program
$288
64
$352
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
5.4% expense reduction
July 2009 Financial Plan 2010-2013
12
Year-to-Year Changes in Expenses
10.0%
Total Operating Expenses
Uncontrollable Expenses
9.0%
Controllable Expenses
8.3%
7.4%
7.1%
7.0%
5.0%
4.8%
4.0%
3.6%
3.3%
3.5%
1.8%
1.6%
1.5%
0.9%
0.8%
0.0%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Uncontrollable Operating Expenses include Paratransit Service Contracts, Fuel for Buses & Trains, Traction & Propulsion Power, OPEB Current
Payment, Health & Welfare, Pensions, and Insurance.
Controllable Operating Expenses include Payroll, Overtime, Claims, Other-Fringe Benefits, Reimbursable Overhead, Maintenance & Other
Operating Contracts, Professional Service Contracts, and Materials & Supplies, Other Business Expenses, Other Expense Adjustments, and Gap
Closing Actions.
Total Operating Expenses includes the impact of the Gap Closing Actions but excludes Debt Service and the General Reserve.
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
July 2009 Financial Plan 2010-2013
13
Financial Plan Risks
• Regional economy does not rebound as anticipated;
double-dip recession
• Energy price volatility
• Labor arbitration ruling inconsistent with Financial Plan
• Revenues from new State taxes and fees do not meet
financial plan assumptions
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
July 2009 Financial Plan 2010-2013
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