Metropolitan Planning Organization Travel Forecasting State of the Practice

Presented To AMPO Modeling Work Group By Guy Rousseau, Atlanta Regional Commission TRB Committee 0090 Member October 23, 2006 Salt Lake City, Utah

B0090 Committee for Determination of the State of the Practice in Metropolitan Area Travel Forecasting

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The origin of the study:

requested of the National Research Council and Transportation Research Board, by United States Department Of Transportation Office of the Secretary, Federal Highway Administration, and Federal Transit Administration.

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The scope:

This project gathers information and determines the state of the practice for metropolitan area travel demand modeling by metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and state departments of transportation (DOTs). In addition, the committee identifies actions needed to ensure that the appropriate technical processes are being used for travel modeling.

The committee membership

Chairman: Martin Wachs, RAND Corporation Members: Laura L. Cove, North Carolina DOT Thomas B. Deen, Transportation Consultant George B. Dresser, Texas A&M University Ronald W. Eash, Northwestern University Robert A. Johnston, University of California, Davis Eric J. Miller, University of Toronto Michael R. Morris, North Central Texas Council of Governments Richard H. Pratt, Richard H. Pratt Consultant, Inc.

Charles L. Purvis, Oakland Metro Transportation Commission Guy Rousseau, Atlanta Regional Commission Mary Lynn Tischer, Virginia Department of Transportation Richard E. Walker, Metro Portland Staff: Jon M. Williams, Transportation Research Board Steve Godwin, Transportation Research Board

Process of the Committee

• We have met 4 times, once jointly with this AMPO models group • We have received information from a number of sources: – listening sessions during our meetings, – national survey of MPO modeling practice (by BMI VHB); – survey of states (DOT’s) to determine what role they have for metropolitan travel forecasting; – extensive literature review; – targeted research on such topics as the history of FHWA / FTA funding for MPOs and the accuracy of 20-year MPO land use forecasts*

MPOs Providing Responses to Survey

Survey Objectives • Support TRB Committee B0090 by noting modeling practices that are: – Unusual – Questionable – Likely represent advance state-of-the-practice – Deficient – Ways to improve modeling – Otherwise of special interest

Top Ten Best Model Features

10. Multipath Transit Assignment 10. Detailed Operations Outputs 9. Accurate Land Use Data 8. Intersection Impedances 7. GIS Based 6. Multiplicity of Trip Purposes 5. Modes/Mode Choice Model 4. Standardized Model 3. Zone/Network Details 2. Well Calibrated and Validated 1. Ease of Use/Flexibility Source: MPO-DOT survey

Top Ten Worst Model Features

10. Lack of Tour Based Activity Model 9. No Mode Choice Model 8. Lack of Commercial Vehicle/Truck/Freight Modeling 7. Lack of Toll/HOT Lane Modeling 6. Lack of Recent Quality Calibration 5. Lack of Travel Survey Data 4. Lack of Time of Day 3. Trip Generation 2. Lack of Detail/Quality of Mode Choice in Model 1. Land Use Forecasting (see next slide as to why that is….????.....!!!) Source: MPO-DOT survey

Land Use Forecasts for Year 2000 VS Actual 2000 Population, Employment & Households

10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% Atlanta -30.0% Chicago San Francisco Washington Portland, OR Dallas-Ft Worth Phoenix

City

Population Households Employment

Committee Next Steps

• We have written a draft report that includes discussion, findings, and recommendations for both policy and technical topics. This report is currently under review by the committee. • Following the completion of our committee review, our report will be subject to an external peer review by about 8 reviewers. Once the comments of these reviewers are satisfied, the report will be edited and published • Release of the report at the TRB Annual Meeting seems unlikely. • At the TRB Annual Meeting, and the 2007 Transportation Planning Applications conference (see travel modeling practice www.trb-appcon.org

), there will likely be presentation of the final findings of the national survey of MPO