Transcript スライド 1 - CEFOR

Report of the
Facts & Figures Committee
Tore Forsmo
Chairman
Committee Members
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Paul BUYL (Belgium)
Cédric CHARPENTIER (France)
Jim CRAIG (USA)
Andrea CUPIDO (Italy)
Tore FORSMO (Norway) (Chairman)
Pamela FROOD (UK/IUA)
Patrizia KERN (Switzerland) (New)
Jens SCHILDKNECHT (Germany)
Astrid SELTMANN (Norway) (Secretary)
Simon STONEHOUSE (UK/Lloyd’s)
Global Shipping Market Trends
Facts & Figures Committee
Tore Forsmo
Managing Director
The Central Union of Marine Underwriters, Oslo, Norway
Thanks also to
F&F Committee Members Cédric Charpentier and Simon Stonehouse
World Merchant Fleet
by type of ship of 300gt and over
As at January 1st 2006 – number of ships in share of the World
Reported Fleet, growth rate 2001-2006 (%) and average age
Ro-Ro cargo 2.8%
(+1.8%)
20.5
19.1
21.3
Reefer ships 2.8%
(-12.6%)
Special Ships 3.2%
(+13.7%)
Oil Tankers 19.1%
(+8.8%)
17.3
General cargo 31.5%
(-11.8%)
WORLD REPORTED FLEET
Total number : 41,110 ships
increased by + 5.4 % on the
period
Average age : 19.1 years
Chemical tankers 3.3%
(+3.6%)
18.2
22.6
16.3
15.6
22.4
years
10.9
year
Liquefied gas 2.9%
(+8.8%)
Bulk carriers 15.8%
(+12.4%)
Passengers 9.8%
(+7.9%)
Container ships 8.5%
(+37.1%)
Ore/Bulk/Oil 0.3%
(-33.2%)
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
World Merchant Reported Fleet
by type of ships 300gt and over
As at January 1st, 2006 – Deadweight and growth rate 2000-2006
100%
+ 76.4%
900,000
80%
800,000
+ 41.4%
700,000
60%
+ 30.6%
600,000
+ 19.4%
+ 27.2%
+ 24.0%
40%
+ 18.2%
+ 14.2%
500,000
20%
- 5.6%
400,000
- 10.6%
353,537
- 15.7%
0%
333,633
300,000
- 49.9%
-20%
200,000
944,497
24,227
100,000
8,087
111,663
9,943
-40%
72,121
11,937
6,605
5,990
6,754
-
-60%
Oil Tankers
Chemical tankers
Liquefied gas
Bulk carriers
Ore/Bulk/Oil
Container ships
1,000dwt in 2006
Passengers
General cargo
Reefer ships
Ro-Ro cargo
Growth rate 2000/ 2006
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
Special Ships
Total
World Merchant Fleet
of ships of 300gt and over
Evolution of the growth rates (GT, DWT, and Number of ships)
between 1995 and 2006
50 %
944,498 mDWT
(+ 45,9%)
45 %
40 %
35 %
639,658 mGT
(+ 38,5%)
30 %
25 %
761,909 mDWT
(+ 15.5%)
20 %
41,110 ships
(+ 13,4%)
506,544 mGT
(+ 11.7%)
15 %
10 %
38,917 ships
(+ 7.4%)
5%
0%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
2003
2004
2005
2006
World Merchant Fleet
by main types of ship of 300gt and over
Evolution of the number of ships in shares (%) of the world fleet 1996 – 2006,
Growth rate in 2005
Share of World Fleet
Growth rate in 2005 (in 2004)
40%
- 0.9 % (- 10.8%)
35%
30%
25%
- 0.2 % (+ 0.45%)
20%
+ 1.9 % (+ 2.9%)
15%
- 1.8 % (- 0.3%)
10%
+ 6.0 % (+ 5.4%)
5%
- 1.2 % (+ 1.5%)
0%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
2006
Oil Tankers
Liquefied gas
Bulk carriers
Container ships
Passengers
General cargo
World Merchant Reported Fleet
by National and Foreign Flag
As at January 1st, 2006 – thousand DWT and number of ships
1,000dwt
Ships of 1,000 GT
1,000,000
900,000
National Flag (dwt)
Foreign Flag (dwt)
800,000
15,668
700,000
14,480
600,000
13,840
500,000
400,000
13,342
13,305
12,905
12,916
13,121
300,000
200,000
13,071
100,000
12,646
12,707
12,462
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Total Units in the :
26,192
26,247
26,221
26,486
26,942
28,375
3,524
3,686
4,174
4,117
3,909
3,567
Total World Fleet (1,000gt and over)29,716
29,933
30,395
30,603
30,851
31,942
Reported Fleet
Not Reported Fleet
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
World Merchant Fleet – Top Ten Countries
WORLD MERCHANT FLEET - THE TOP TEN COUNTRIES OF MANAGEMENT
As at January 1st, 2006 – Rank in 2006 (in 2005) and thousand of DWT (Ships of 1,000gt and over )
% share on
Total fleet the Total
DWT-rank
Growth rate Growth rate
Country of Management
1,000DWT World Fleet
2006 (2005)
2005/2006
1996/2006
2006
Reported in
2006
1(1)
GREECE
159,413
18.0%
-0.7%
34.8%
2(2)
JAPAN
131,010
14.8%
10.4%
50.4%
3(3)
GERMANY
70,279
7.9%
22.3%
312.4%
4(4)
CHINA, PR of
64,187
7.2%
18.6%
87.5%
5(6)
USA
46,897
5.3%
13.7%
-1.9%
6(7)
HONG-KONG
43,382
4.9%
11.2%
40.0%
7(5)
NORWAY
43,292
4.9%
-1.6%
-9.9%
8(8)
KOREA, Rep.of
29,421
3.3%
9.6%
43.7%
9(10)
CHINESE TAÏPEI
24,319
2.7%
2.8%
70.5%
10(11)
SINGAPORE
22,274
2.5%
0.1%
77.7%
Total Top Ten Countries of Management
634,474
71.6%
7.9%
47.3%
251,288
28.4%
5.0%
25.4%
Others countries
Total World Merchant Fleet by Country of
885,762
7.1%
40.4%
Management
Total World Merchant Fleet (including fleets for
3,567 ships for 50.6 million dwt not reported
936,363
which the Country of Management is unknown)
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
World Merchant Fleet – Top Ten Countries
by National (NF) and Foreign Flags (FF)
As at January 1st, 2006
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
Orderbook
Evolution by type of ship
in million DWT
219.5
250
230.6
6.5
3.6
177.0
53.0
200
13.9
150
112.6
112.3
115.6
67.9
100
85.7
50
0
2000
2001
Tankers >=1,000dwt
Container Vessels >=5,000dwt
2002
2003
Bulk Carriers >=10,000dwt
Others (of which Passenger Vessels >=1,000grt)
2004
2005
LNG/LPG Carriers
General cargo (>= 300gt)
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Japan
Europe
Others
Korea
China
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
% CGT Deliveries
World Shipbuilding: Shares of Deliveries
Source: Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
Vessels on order by Country of Build
@ August 2006 (Numbers)
Unknown
1%
USA
1%
Americas
1%
Taiwan
1%
China
24%
South Korea
23%
FSU
2%
Middle East
1%
Japan
19%
Far East
8%
Total No 5,653
Source: Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
Europe
19%
Vessels on order by Country of Build
@ August 2006 (DWT)
Unknown
0%
South Korea
35%
Americas
Taiwan
1%
1%
China
24%
FSU
1%
Europe
6%
Middle East
1%
Total 275.6 million DWT
Source: Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
Japan
29%
Far East
2%
Top Contracting Countries by Number of
Vessels on Order
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
do
m
ce
Ki
ng
d
Fr
an
ng
Ko
Ho
ng
Ko
re
a
y
h
Tu
ap
or
e
rk
e
So
ut
Un
ite
Source: Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
Si
ng
St
at
es
Un
ite
er
la
d
nd
s
ly
It a
Ne
th
No
rw
ay
De
nm
ar
k
Ch
in
a
P.
R.
ec
e
Gr
e
pa
n
Ja
Ge
r
m
an
y
0
Top Contracting Countries by DWT of
Vessels on Order
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
Ko
Un
re
ite
a
d
St
at
Sa
es
ud
iA
ra
bi
a
Tu
rk
ey
Si
ng
ap
or
e
Ta
iw
an
Ca
na
da
Ru
ss
ia
So
ut
h
Ita
ly
n
Ir a
m
an
y
a
P.
R.
De
nm
ar
k
No
rw
Ho
ay
ng
Ko
ng
Ch
in
ec
e
Ge
r
Gr
e
Ja
pa
n
0
Source: Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
World Seaborne Trade Volume
Development 1993-2005 (in million tonnes) - Growth rate in 2005
7,500
+ 3.7 %
2,700
Crude oil and oil products
+ 4.5 %
The 4 main Dry Bulk Cargoes (Iron Ore, Coal, Grain, Bauxite/Alumina)
2,500
7,000
Other Cargoes
Total World Trade
2,300
6,500
+ 4.2 %
6,000
1,900
+ 6.3 %
1,700
1,500
5,500
Total World Trade
Major trades
2,100
5,000
1,300
4,500
1,100
4,000
900
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
2004
2005 (*)
(*)estimates
estimates
World Market Price Indices
for Selected Commodities
Annual Average (1993-2005) – Average in 2006 as at end of April (*)
Index 2000 = 100
100
240
201.6
210
180
150
126.2
120
122.1
90
60
Grain
Non ferrous metal
Agricultural raw material
30
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
2004
2005
2006 (*)
World Market Price Indices
for Selected Commodities
Annual Average (1993-2005) – Average in 2005 as at end of April (*)
Index 2000 = 100
300
262.7
250
221.5
200
190.0
150
100
Iron ore, scrap metals
Coal
Crude oil
50
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
2003
2004
2005
2006 (*)
FREIGHT MARKET (indices) –
YEARS 1995 to 2006 (January to April 2006)
Index 1972 = 100
700
600
500
400
345.9
334.8
300
324.8
278.3
200
Time Charter Index (1 to 2 months)
General Freight Index
Grain Freight Index
Miscellaneous Freight Index
100
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
2004
2005
2006
Container Vessels & Risk Aggregation
F&F Open Forum
• Container Operations and Risk Handling
from a Port Point of View
• Capt. James McNamara,
President, National Cargo Bureau Inc., New York
• Container Operations and Risk Handling
from the Underwriters’ Point of View
• Matthias Kirchner,
Manager, Marine & Aviation, Axa Corporate
Solutions, Germany