Transcript Report on World Merchant Fleet

Report of the
Facts & Figures Committee
Tore Forsmo
Chairman
Committee Members
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Paul BUYL (Belgium)
Cédric CHARPENTIER (France)
Jim CRAIG (USA)
Andrea CUPIDO (Italy)
Tore FORSMO (Norway) (Chairman)
Pamela FROOD (UK/IUA)
Patrizia KERN (Switzerland)
Jens SCHILDKNECHT (Germany)
Astrid SELTMANN (Norway) (Secretary)
Simon STONEHOUSE (UK/Lloyd’s)
Global Shipping Market Trends
Facts & Figures Committee
Tore Forsmo
Managing Director
The Central Union of Marine Underwriters, Oslo, Norway
Thanks also to
F&F Committee Members Cédric Charpentier and Simon Stonehouse
World Merchant Fleet
by type of ship of 300gt and over
As at January 1st 2007 – number of ships in share of the World Reported Fleet, growth
rate 2002-2007 (%) and average age
Ro-Ro cargo 3.0%
(+12.5%)
Special Ships 3.1%
(+17.7%)
Reefer ships 2.6%
(-12.2%)
22.1
19.7
19.2
Oil Tankers 19.1%
(+12.1%)
WORLD REPORTED FLEET
Total number : 42,872 ships
increased by + 9.6 % on the
period
Average age : 19.1 years
17.1
General cargo 31.4%
(-6.3%)
Chemical tankers 3.2%
(+7.3%)
23.3
18.7
16.3
15.8
22.8
Liquefied gas 2.9%
(+11.8%)
10.8
Bulk carriers 15.8%
(+14.8%)
Passengers 9.6%
(+7.9%)
Container ships 9.1%
(+42.4%)
Ore/Bulk/Oil 0.2%
(-46.2%)
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
World Merchant Reported Fleet
by type of ships 300gt and over
As at January 1st, 2007 – Deadweight and growth rate 2001-2007
100%
86.5%
1,009,523
1,000,000
75%
45.8%
800,000
50%
35.9%
29.8%
29.6%
24.7%
15.2%
13.7%
25%
600,000
-0.9%
-9.8%
400,000
374,454
-4.9%
0%
357,568
-25%
200,000
-59.6%
-50%
128,174
74,133
10,008
Oil Tankers
26,857
Chemical tankers Liquefied gas
Bulk carriers
Ore/Bulk/Oil
1,000dwt in 2007
6,585
6,062
6,078
6,952
12,652
-75%
Container ships
Passengers
General cargo
Reefer ships
Growth rate 2001/ 2007
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
Ro-Ro cargo
Special Ships
Total
World Merchant Fleet
of ships of 300gt and over
Evolution of the growth rates (GT, DWT, and Number of ships)
between 1995 and 2007
70%
1,009,524 mDWT
60%
(+ 56.4%)
50%
685,738 mGT
(+ 48.1%)
40%
30%
778,758 mDWT
(+ 18.8%)
20%
42,872 ships
(+ 18.3%)
520,913 mGT
(+ 14.2%)
10%
39,008 ships
(+ 7.6%)
0%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
2005
2006
2007
World Merchant Fleet
by main types of ship of 300gt and over
Evolution of the number of ships in shares (%) of the world fleet 97–07,
Growth rate in 2006 as at 1st January 2007
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
World Merchant Reported Fleet
by National and Foreign Flag
As at January 1st, 2007 – thousand DWT and number of ships
Ships > 1,000 GT
1,000dwt
1,200,000
1,000,000
17,058
800,000
15,668
14,480
600,000
Foreign Flag (dwt)
National Flag (dwt)
400,000
13,342
200,000
12,905
13,840
13,305
12,916
12,707
13,039
12,646
12,462
2004
2005
2006
2007
0
2002
2003
Total Units in the :
Reported Fleet
Not Reported Fleet
Total World Fleet
26,247
26,221
26,486
26,942
28,375
30,097
3,686
4,174
4,117
3,909
3,567
3,228
29,933
30,395
30,603
30,851
31,942
33,325
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
World Merchant Fleet – Top 10 Countries
WORLD MERCHANT FLEET - THE TOP TEN COUNTRIES OF MANAGEMENT
As at January 1st, 2007 – Rank in 2007 (in 2006) and thousand of DWT (Ships of 1,000gt and over )
% share on
Total fleet the Total
DWT-rank
Growth rate Growth rate
Country of Management
1,000DWT World Fleet
2007 (2006)
2006/2007
1997/2007
2007
Reported in
2007
1 (1)
GREECE
170,260
17.8%
6.8%
48.1%
2 (2)
JAPAN
146,956
15.4%
12.2%
68.6%
3 (3)
GERMANY
85,330
8.9%
21.4%
396.8%
4 (4)
CHINA, PR of
69,070
7.2%
7.6%
96.3%
5 (7)
NORWAY
47,970
5.0%
10.8%
1.2%
6 (5)
USA
45,397
4.8%
-3.2%
-5.1%
7 (6)
HONG-KONG
45,155
4.7%
4.1%
38.0%
8 (8)
KOREA, Rep of
31,712
3.3%
7.8%
39.3%
9 (11)
UK
24,973
2.6%
17.1%
24.0%
10 (10)
SINGAPORE
24,936
2.6%
12.0%
73.7%
Total Top Ten Countries of Management
691,759
72.4%
9.0%
57.3%
263,659
27.6%
4.9%
12.9%
Others countries
Total World Merchant Fleet by Country of
955,418
7.9%
41.9%
Management
Total World Merchant Fleet (including fleets for
3,228 ships for 45.7 million dwt not reported
1,001,118
which the Country of Management is unknown)
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
World Merchant Fleet – Top 10 Countries
by National (NF) and Foreign Flags (FF)
As at January 1st, 2007
Ships > 1,000 GT
1,000 DWT
Years
150,000
35
Average Age NF : 17.2 years
30
Average Age FF : 13.2 years
25
Top Ten Countries Fleet Average Age : 15.5 years
100,000
20
15
50,000
10
5
0
0
1,000 DWT NF
1,000 DWT FF
Average Age NF
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
Average Age FF
Orderbook
Evolution by type of ship
in million DWT
334.0
350
Others 5.5
Container 58.1
300
241.8
LNG/LPG 17.2
220.0
250
176.7
Bulk Carriers 97.7
200
150
General cargo 9.2
112.3
115.6
Tankers 146.3
100
50
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Tankers >=1,000dwt
Bulk Carriers >=10,000dwt
LNG/LPG Carriers
Container Vessels >=5,000dwt
Others (of which Passenger Vessels >=1,000grt)
General cargo (>= 300gt)
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
9
1 75
9
1 76
9
1 77
9
1 78
9
1 79
9
1 80
9
1 81
9
1 82
9
1 83
9
1 84
9
1 85
9
1 86
9
1 87
9
1 88
9
1 89
9
1 90
9
1 91
9
1 92
9
1 93
9
1 94
9
1 95
9
1 96
9
1 97
9
1 98
9
2 99
0
2 00
0
2 01
0
2 02
0
2 03
0
2 04
0
2 05
0
06
1
% CGT Deliveries
World Shipbuilding –
Shares of Deliveries
50%
30%
Japan
45%
40%
35%
Europe
25%
20%
10%
5%
0%
Source: Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
Others
15%
Korea
China
Vessels on order by Country of Build
@ August 2007 (Numbers)
USA / Americas
2%
South Korea
23%
China
30%
Other
3%
Japan
17%
FSU
1%
Far East
9%
Total No 8,414 (2006- 5,653)
Source: Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
Europe/Scandinavia
15%
Vessels on order by Country of Build
@ August 2007 (DWT)
South Korea
36 %
USA/Americas
1%
China
31 %
Europe/
Scandinavia
4%
Other
1%
Japan
23 %
Total 436.8 million DWT (2006 – 275.6m)
Source: Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
FSU
0%
Far East
4%
Top Contracting Countries
by Number of Vessels on Order (Aug 07)
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Source: Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
ia
Ru
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Fr
an
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Ko
Ho
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ap
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Si
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nd
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0
Top Contracting Countries
by DWT of Vessels on Order (Aug 07)
80,000,000
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
Ita
Ho
ly
ng
Ko
Un
ng
ite
d
St
at
es
Si
ng
ap
or
e
Ru
ss
ia
Fr
an
Ne
ce
th
er
la
nd
s
m
an
y
a
P.
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R.
ut
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Ko
re
a
No
rw
ay
De
nm
ar
k
Tu
rk
ey
Ch
in
pa
n
Ge
r
Ja
Gr
e
ec
e
0
Source: Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
GDP 2006 and GDP Growth Rate 02-06
14 000
+ 9.5%
10 %
GDP 2006 (billion USD)
12 000
Actual % GDP Growth (2002 - 2006)
+ 6.8%
10 000
+ 6.1%
5%
8 000
+ 3.3%
+ 2.9%
+ 2.7%
+ 2.5%
+ 1.8%
6 000
+ 1.5%
+ 0.9%
+ 0.6%
0%
4 000
2 000
-
-5 %
China (1)
India (1)
(1) % GDP growth for 2001-2005
Russian
Federation (1)
Spain
USA
Canada
UK
Japan
France
Germany
Italy
World Seaborne Trade Volume
Development 1996-2006 (in million tonnes) - Growth rate in 2006
Major trades
Total World Trade
2,900
+6%
Crude oil and oil products
7,000
+5%
The 4 main Dry Bulk Cargoes (Iron Ore, Coal, Grain, Bauxite/Alumina)
Other Cargoes
Total World Trade
2,400
+2%
6,000
1,900
+7%
5,000
1,400
4,000
900
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
2004
2005
2006 (*)
estimates
(*)
World Trade Values
Development 1996-2006 (in million USD) – Growth rate in 2006
Total World Trade
& Other cargoes
Oil & Dry Bulk
2,000,000
+ 16.9 %
12,000,000
Crude oil and oil products
The 4 main Dry Bulk Cargoes (Iron Ore, Coal, Grain, Bauxite/Alumina)
+ 27.1 %
Other Cargoes
1,500,000
Total World Trade
+ 15.7 %
10,000,000
1,000,000
8,000,000
500,000
6,000,000
+ 14.5 %
4,000,000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
2004
2005
2006 (*)
(*)
World Market Price Indices
for Selected Commodities
Annual Average (1993-2006) – Average in 2007 as at end of May (*)
Index 2000 = 100
350
300
250
Iron ore, scrap metals
Coal
301.6
Crude oil
Agricultural raw material
278.5
Non ferrous metal
200
213.1
202.1
150
152.2
100
50
0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
(*)
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures
and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.
FREIGHT MARKET (indices) –
YEARS 1995 to 2007 (January to May 2007)
Index 1972 = 100
800
758.6
700
Time Charter Index (1 to 2 months)
General Freight Index
Grain Freight Index
Miscellaneous Freight Index
600
529.8
500
504.4
448.4
400
300
200
100
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures, Clarkson Research
Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels and Maritime Research Inc., New Jersey for Freight Market indices.
2007