Transcript Slide 1

Developing a New Paradigm for Water
Dr. Anthony Turton
Director: TouchStone Resources (Pty) Ltd
[email protected]
www.anthonyturton.com
© AR Turton, 2009
Layout of Presentation
• What is the current status of water in South
Africa?
– The Thunder Graph
• Assessment of shortcomings
• What we need to do about it to ensure stable
economic growth in future.
– Water as a Stock vs Flux debate.
• Conclusion
South Africa’s Resource
Constraints to Development are ...
•
•
•
•
Energy ...
Water ...
Our energy constraint is defined by water.
The sulphur cycle is of particular
importance.
• In a future scenario where we burn more
coal, but possibly with less precipitation,
what will happen to acid rain?
• Water quality is a national problem ...
What is the Current Status of Water in South
Africa?
• 1966 Commission of Enquiry into Water Matters
made some startling predictions.
• This Commission elevated the management of water
to a national strategic level.
• This was mostly ignored when the National Water
Act was promulgated.
• Today we face significant water constraints to our
national economic growth.
• DWAF has been restructured out of functional
existence to our combined peril.
• We are teetering on the abyss!
Water Demand (109m3yr1)(billion m³/yr¹)
QxF=Y
80
Q = volume of
water
available at
national level
at a high
assurance of
supply
Y = volume of
water needed
at national level
at a high
assurance of
supply to
sustain the
economy
F = Flux value
of water
Flux value of
water = 1.7
38 x 1.7 =
64.6
Highest
water use
estimate
Lowest
water use
estimate
Total surface + groundwater resources
(accessible with new technology)
60
Total surface resources
(existing technology)
38 x .8 = 30.4
40
20
Note: SA’s available National Stock is ± 33
Km³, which is 66% of the MAR (50 Km³).
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Source: Pete Ashton, CSIR Science Scope (3)1 (2008:19)
Years
This is our
problem
So we need to understand
the water resource
management problematique
in the context of salt loads.
Managing salts-loads is a
technical challenge, but it
also poses business risk for
a variety of reasons
It is not water scarcity that
destroyed ancient irrigation
civilizations, but rather a
salts build-up.
Transboundary River Basins in Africa
As a result of our colonial
legacy…
Continental Africa has 47
sovereign states…
Sharing 63 transboundary
river basins…
Containing 93% of the total
water…
Covering 61% of the
surface area…
In which 77% of the human
population live…
Africa’s fundamental
development
constraint is the
conversion of
precipitation (MAP)
to runoff (MAR).
Which means that we
need a combination
of infrastructure and
ingenuity to create
Assurance of
Supply.
Evaporation
Precipitation
Streamflow
What is Southern Africa’s Fundamental Water Resource
Management Problem?
Southern Africa in general has the
lowest conversion ratio of MAP to
MAR in the world
And this is the basic problem
Because we have insufficient base-flow for
reliable development so we need to build
storage and transfer infrastructure
© O’Keeffe et al
The three most
economically
developed countries
in SADC are on the
“wrong” side of the
global average. D. R. C.
MEAN
ANNUAL
RAINFALL
In South Africa,
97.3% of the
streamflowANGOLA
was
allocated at a high
assurance of supply
by 2004.
= 860 mm isohyet
NAMIBIA
= World average rainfall
ZAMBIA
SOUTH
AFRICA
© Pete Ashton
0
250
500 km
MOZABIQUE
So we are on a
transition from IWRMMALAWI
to ZIMBABWE
Integrated Salts
Mean Annual
Rainfall (mm)
Management
2500
BOTSWANA
2000
instead.
With water service
provision now
becoming a major
(and sensitive) issue.
SADC Average Annual
Rainfall = 948 mm
Water allocation in
those three countries
has reached a point
where futureTANZANIA
economic
development is
potentially
constrained.
We have simply
reached the limit of
SWAZILAND
the resource
so what
we do next will
LESOTHOour future.
determine
1500
1250
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Lake Chad
Dams and
hydraulic
inf’structure
in Southern
Africa
We have simply built as many
dams as we can, trapping 66% of
the current streamflow, and we
cannot build more for a variety of
technical reasons.
Nile
Congo
(DRC)
Congo
Tanzania
So previous solutions are not
future solutions – we now need
to become creative and do
something else – which is where
our current non-investment in
ingenuity will become a future
business risk.
Angola
Rovuma
Mozambique
Zambia
Kunene
Zambezi
Zimbabwe
Cuvelai
Malawi
Pungué
Buzi
Save-Runde
Okavango/
Makgadikgadi
South Africa and Zimbabwe
are listed amongst the top
twenty countries in the
world in terms of the
numbers of dams built
(WCD 2000)
Namibi
a
Botswana
Limpopo
Incomati
Umbeluzi
Maputo
Orange
Swaziland
South
Africa
© P Ashton
N
Lesotho
0
25
0
Kilometres
50
0
Lake Chad
WATER
TRANSFERS
IN
SOUTHERN
AFRICA
This represents a
substantial investment in
both infrastructure and
ingenuity, converging to
provide a high
Assurance of Supply
on which future
economic growth and
political stability is
predicated, but poses
new risks not yet being
addressed.
Nile
Congo
(DRC)
Congo
Tanzania
Angola
Rovuma
Mozambique
Zambia
Kunene
Zambezi
Zimbabwe
Cuvelai
Malawi
Pungué
Existing water
transfer scheme
Proposed new
water transfer
scheme
© Pete Ashton
Buzi
Save-Runde
Okavango/
Makgadikgadi
Namibi
a
Botswana
Limpopo
Incomati
Umbeluzi
Maputo
Orange
Swaziland
South
Africa
N
Lesotho
0
25
0
Kilometres
50
0
Heavily
Utilized Water
Resources in
Southern
Africa
Lake Chad
Nile
Congo
(DRC)
Congo
Tanzania
Angola
Rovuma
Water resources
approaching “closure” –
very little left to allocate
for off-channel uses
Water resources under
increased pressure –
need to ensure closer
co-operation with
neighbouring states
© Pete Ashton
Mozambique
Zambia
Cunene
Zambezi
Zimbabwe
Cuvelai
Malawi
Pungué
Buzi
Save-Runde
Okavango/
Makgadikgadi
Namibi
a
Botswana
Limpopo
Incomati
Umbeluzi
Maputo
Orange
Swaziland
South
Africa
N
Lesotho
0
25
0
Kilometres
50
0
How will this impact Business??
• If we regard water as a stock, then we are in
serious trouble because by 2004 we had
already allocated 98% of the national resource
at a high assurance of supply level (National
Water Resource Strategy).
• BUT, if we regard water as a flux then we can
continue to grow or national economy in a
sustainable way.
• This will need a fundamental paradigm shift
by all significant stakeholders.
Water as a Stock
So water as a stock is the product of linear thinking in
which the finite resource is used and then discarded.
Water
Effluent
Business
Energy
Raw Materials
Product
Process
Wealth
SA’s National Stock is ± 33 Km³,
which is 66% of the MAR (50 Km³).
In this model water is subjected to a linear process
degrading in utility as it passes through the “black box”.
Water as a Flux
In this model a network of processes unlocks the
maximum value from water and multiplies the
initially perceived finite nature of the resource.
Industrial
Process
Industrial
Process
Industrial
Process
Industrial
Process
Our National Flux is
66 Km³, if we recycle
only once.
Industrial
Process
So the water as a flux paradigm is the product of
network thinking in which it is cascaded around the
economy with the number of new process cycles
limited only by our ingenuity and technological
capacity as a nation.
Industrial
Process
Industrial
Process
Key Water Issues
• The South African economy is
fundamentally water constrained.
• We have reached that threshold and are now
moving into an unknown era where
Assurance of Supply will increasingly
become a business risk (the impact of the
Uhuru Decade is upon us).
• We need new partnerships between
Government, Organized Business and the
National Science Councils to develop and
resource a fresh Strategic Vision.
• Business cannot sit idle any longer.
What do we need to do?
• Organized business should start to
understand water as a business risk.
• A Collaborative Business Partnership in
Water is a way to go – based on Business
Against Crime. (Avoid the blame game).
• Companies must understand business risks
in terms of input, process and output and
then develop mitigation strategies for each of
these sets of issues.
• Risk mitigation is scale dependent.
Conclusion
• Water resource management will need a
new strategic paradigm if we are to grow
our economy.
• National Water Quality Science,
Technology and Policy Support
Program
– National Council of Provinces has already
accepted this.
• Q x F = Y (38 x 2 = 76)
• Become part of the Solution.
• Yes we can!
Thank You
QxF=Y
F = 1.7 by 2035