Transcript Slide 1

Towards a New Social Contract
Environment and Conservation Association Gala Dinner
27 March 2009
Dr. Anthony Turton
Director: TouchStone Resources (Pty) Ltd
[email protected]
www.anthonyturton.com
Images © National Geographic
© AR Turton, 2009
Layout of Presentation
• Does SA need to grow its economy?
• What are the current natural resource
constraints?
• Our management problem is ...
• Towards a New Social Contract ...
• Conclusion
Does SA need to grow the
economy?
• Yes.....
• The hope of a generation of
disenfranchised citizens culminated in the
promise of democracy.
• That promise has largely failed....
• Revolution of rising expectations.
• If the demands of society exceed the
capacity of the state to deliver, then
anger is possible.
What are the current natural
resource constraints?
•
•
•
•
Energy ...
Water ...
Our energy constraint is defined by water.
The sulphur cycle is of particular
importance – but is not debated / studied.
• In a future scenario where we burn more
coal, but possibly with less precipitation,
what will happen to rainfall?
• Acidification is our energy limitation ...
SA’s Water Situation
SA has a water
constrained economy
D. R. C.
(1,534)
The significance is
that SA has generally
lost its dilution
capacity
ANGOLA
(1,050)
NAMIBIA
(254)
N
500 km
© P.J. Ashton
TANZANIA
(937)
ZAMBIA
(1,011)
BOTSWANA
(400)
With linkages to
energy, food
security and human
health
Source: Peter Ashton
In 2004 we had
allocated 98% of the
national water
resource at a high
assurance of supply
SOUTH AFRICA
(497)
MOZAMBIQUE
(969)
MALAWI
(1,014)
Mean Annual
Rainfall (mm)
Propelling water
quality management
to a national strategic
priority
ZIMBABWE
(652)
SWAZILAND
(788)
LESOTHO
(760)
2500
2000
1500
1250
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Water Demand (109m3yr1)(billion m³/yr¹)
QxF=Y
80
Q = volume of
water
available at
national level
at a high
assurance of
supply
Y = volume of
water needed
at national level
at a high
assurance of
supply to
sustain the
economy
F = Flux value
of water
If Flux value
of water = 1.7
38 x 1.7 =
64.6
Highest
water use
estimate
Lowest
water use
estimate
Total surface + groundwater resources
(accessible with new technology)
60
Total surface resources
(existing technology)
40
20
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Source: Pete Ashton, CSIR Science Scope (3)1 (200:19)
Years
Our Management Problem is...
• Water is a flux, but we manage it as if it
were a stock.
• If we can recycle our national resource
once, then we double the national stock.
• The management objective should be to
get the F value > 1 and ideally = 2.
• Return flow management is so bad that
the Flux value is currently about .8
• 38 x .8 = 30.4 (This is our problem).
However ...
•
•
•
•
•
Beware of unintended consequences ...
EDC’s
Partially metabolized medication
Microcystin
We can never forget about our historic
legacy ...
• The Externalization of Costs as a legacy
issue
Microcystin Contamination
Death
caused by Cyanobacteria
bloom partially
The
biochemistry
of Microcystin
was
arising
as a result
of attempts
acidic
described
in 1985
– it to
isneutralize
chemically
water (AMD) from the coal mining industry.
similar to Rinkhals venom – but no
This means that
environmental
foris
significant
public
domainremediation
research
AMD is not as simple as we thought it would be.
being done on the linkage between
chronic exposure and human health
Microcystin Benchmark
Finland’s worst case is +- 10 ug/l
USA’s worst case is +- 60 ug/l
RSA is currently at 10,000 ug/l
This is a looming
national crisis of
note!
Externalization of Costs Model
Off-Balance
Sheet Items
Value
Mine
Closure
Remediation
Cost
Externalized
Costs
Revenue
V2
Dev Cost
Profit
V1
Balance
Sheet Items
Magnitude
at Closure
T1
© Adler et al., 2007
T2
Time
Our National Dilemma is ...
• We either increase the value of Q ...
• Or we lower our economic growth
aspirations ... (decrease the value of Y)
• Or we increase the value of F ...
• This is technology and capital intensive, so
we need to reinvent relationships between
public and private sectors & environment
• In short we need a new social contract
between water, energy and people.
A New Social Contract?
• Management of return flow is now VITAL
• Increase the F value to the target of 1.7 by
2035 if we accept a low growth scenario.
• Vigorous public debate about the Energy –
Water – Food Security – Climate Change
– Human Health nexus....
• Historic legacy issues HAVE to be dealt
with ...
• Corporations as Social Entrepreneurs
Clearly what we did in the past to
Damsour
and
manage
water scarcity constraints to
development
hydrauliccannot be extrapolated into
the future – we can no longer use
inf’structure
today’s science based on yesterday’s
in experiences
Southern to solve tomorrow’s
Africa problems.
Lake Chad
Nile
Congo
(DRC)
Congo
Tanzania
Angola
Rovuma
Mozambique
Zambia
Kunene
Zambezi
Zimbabwe
Cuvelai
Malawi
Pungué
Buzi
Save-Runde
Okavango/
Makgadikgadi
South Africa and Zimbabwe
are listed amongst the top
twenty countries in the
world in terms of the
numbers of dams built
(WCD 2000)
Namibi
a
Botswana
Limpopo
Incomati
Umbeluzi
Maputo
Orange
Swaziland
South
Africa
© P Ashton
N
Lesotho
0
25
0
Kilometres
50
0
A Key Element of the New Social
Contract ...
• Acid mine drainage ...
• Estimated decant from Wits goldfields is in
order of 345 Mpd (exact value unknown)
• Current decant from Harmony = ±35 Mpd
• Rest will happen in the next decade
• It is radioactive, toxic and highly acidic
• It is an emotive issue ...
• When we solve AMD we can use mine
voids for strategic storage ... So it is vital
Conclusion
• Water quality management will need a
new strategic paradigm if we are to grow
our economy.
• National Water Quality Science,
Technology and Policy Support Program
– National Council of Provinces has already
accepted this
• Q x F = Y (38 x 2 = 76)
• Clever companies will re-invent
themselves and base their future viability
on a New Social Contract
Thank You
QxF=Y
F = 1.7 by 2035