Transcript Diapositiva 1

Istat’ s experience in the KLEMS data set
Antonella Baldassarini
Massimiliano Iommi
The First World KLEMS Conference
Harvard University
August 19-20, 2010
EU KLEMS experience: general overview (1/2)
Two Italian public institutions have been involved in the EU
KLEMS project:
 the Institute for Studies and Economic Analysis (ISAE) as
official member of the Consortium
 the National Statistical Office (Istat) as subcontractor.
ISAE is a public research Institute that conducts analyses,
research projects and forecasts suited to economic and social
policy decisions.
Istat is a public Institute that provides official information on
social, economic and environmental conditions of the Country,
in strict compliance with legal provisions on confidentiality.
Boston, 20 August 2010
EU KLEMS experience: general overview (2/2)
The database on growth accounts has been implemented by
industry (Nace Rev. 1.1) with a breakdown into contributions
from capital (K), labour (L), energy (E), materials (M) and
service inputs (S) as follows:
 Istat has provided official time series at 30 / 60 industry
level (Nace Rev.1.1) on basic variables
 ISAE has provided the breakdown requested (Nace 60+)
by industry, the analytical module on labour input and the
backward calculation of time series
Boston, 20 August 2010
Basic variables from Istat: output and intermediate
inputs (1/2)
 Output measures
 Official National Accounts series (gross output and
gross value added)
 Time period since 1970
 Intermediate inputs
 Supply and Use Tables at 60 industry/product level
 Use tables distinguished between imported and
domestic tables at current and previous year prices
 Time period since 1992
Since the revision of the ESA95 Transmission programme
(November 2007), all EU countries are required to provide
yearly SUTs at current and previous year’s prices. Output
and intermediate inputs data needed for KLEMS database
are now included in the standard data produced by
European NSIs.
Boston, 20 August 2010
Basic variables from Istat: output and intermediate
inputs (2/2)
 Further issue
 In Italy, SUTs are compiled as a fully integrated part
of national accounts calculation
 SUTs are the main tool to balance the estimates from
the expenditure approach and the production approach
at the level of products
 SUTs are the compilation framework for constant
price estimates too (but balancing supply and uses at
the same time at current and constant prices is not
implemented yet)
Boston, 20 August 2010
Basic variables from Istat: GFCF (1/2)
 Gross fixed capital formation cross-classified by
industry (30) and the following assets (9):
 machinery and equipment
 furniture
 hardware
 communication equipment
 software
 road transport equipment
 air, sea and rail transport equipment
 construction works (distinguished in dwellings and other
buildings and structures)
 other intangibles and services
Disaggregation by asset and by industry provided is higher
than what is required by ESA95 Transmission Program.
Boston, 20 August 2010
Basic variables from Istat: GFCF (2/2)
 Further issue
 According the new assets classification (AN_F6+),
ICT assets and intangible assets can be identified
 Adoption of Nace Rev.2 requires a depth changing
industry classification and it offers the opportunity to
extend the industry detail of GFCF estimates but:
1) resources needed to produce reliable estimates
increase with the level of industry disaggregation
required; 2) the backward calculation of long time
series to produce capital stock estimates using the
PIM model seems difficult
Boston, 20 August 2010
Basic variables from Istat: labour input (1/2)
 Labour Input measures:
 Persons employed
Time period since 1970
Breakdown by industry:
- 101 industries since 1991
- 32 industries before 1991
 Full-time equivalent units (as a proxy of hours
worked)
Time period since 1970
Breakdown by industry:
- 101 industries since 1991
- 32 industries before 1991
 Hours actually worked
Time period since 1980
Breakdown by industry:
- 60 industries since 1991
- 32 industries before 1991
Boston, 20 August 2010
Basic variables from Istat: labour input (2/2)
 Further issue
Labour input measures (persons employed, jobs, full-time
equivalent units and hours actually worked) are perfectly
integrated within the national accounts framework. Data
are consistent:
 among them
 with output estimates
 with compensation of employees data
Boston, 20 August 2010
Basic variables from Istat: labour compensation
 Compensation of employees:
 Wages and salaries
Time period since 1970
Breakdown by industry:
- 101 industries since 1991
- 32 industries before 1991
 Social contributions
Time period since 1970
Breakdown by industry:
- 101 industries since 1991
- 32 industries before 1991
Boston, 20 August 2010
ISAE contribution to database release
 Providing all basic variables according to the EU
KLEMS breakdown by industry (Nace 60+)
 Hours worked for the period 1970-1979
 Labour input module with information on:
 Persons employed and hours worked (detailed by
gender, age, educational attainment) gathered by the
Population Census for years 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001
 Labour compensation (detailed by gender, age and
educational attainment), obtained using the Bank of
Italy survey on households income 1977-2004
Boston, 20 August 2010
Istat checking on KLEMS database: capital input
 Gross fixed capital formation data are coherent with official
data (as expected, differences are only registered for the price
index of computing equipment)
 From a methodological point of view, Istat calculation on
real fixed capital stock follows a different assumption respect to
EU KLEMS calculations: Istat uses a linear depreciation and
bell shaped retirement distribution while EU KLEMS uses the
geometric model. Relevant differences emerge in terms of
growth rates
 Istat is going to develop specific studies on the average
service life-depreciation rate by asset
Boston, 20 August 2010
Istat checking on KLEMS database: labour input
 Istat calculates data on hours worked not detailed by type (gender, age,
educational attainment). Istat is able now to provide the labour input in
terms of persons employed and hours actually worked by industry and
types (Source of data: LFS on a continuous base since 2004).
 In the next future, sources of data on labour input remuneration will be
investigated, in particular the EU SILC Survey. The above survey focuses
on income and detailed income components are collected mainly at
personal level. In addition, information on labour, education, health, social
exclusion and housing condition information is obtained.
 EU SILC is based on the idea of a common “framework” that is: the
harmonised lists of target primary (annual) and secondary (every four
years or less frequently) variables to be transmitted to Eurostat; common
guidelines and procedures; common concepts (household and income)
and classifications aimed at maximising comparability of the information
produced.
Boston, 20 August 2010
Open issues for the future releases (1/2)
Consistency between KLEMS sources of growth analysis
and NSIs’ estimates
This issue will be very important, at least for EU countries, when
Eurostat releases its own estimates for EU KLEMS. What will be
the official data for countries that produce their own measures of
productivity (e.g. Italy)?
KLEMS coverage
The EU KLEMS database is extended to the whole economy. Is
this the best option? Some new in depth analysis on non market
services according to the growth accounting theory should be
promoted? What about owners occupied housing? In its
productivity calculation, Istat excludes the activities of the General
Government institutional sector, the letting of own property, the
activity of private households with employed persons, the activity of
the extra-territorial organizations and bodies)
Boston, 20 August 2010
Open issues for the future releases (2/2)
The level of industry disaggregation
There is an obvious trade-off between reliability and industry detail.
How far should we be demanding with respect to the industry
detail?
 Availability of time series data
With the change from Nace Rev.1.1. to Nace Rev.2 classification,
the availability of official time-series for gross output and
intermediate inputs according to a supply and use framework is not
guaranteed before of the year 2008
 Capital input estimates
For international comparability, it should be better to clarify well
which measures of capital stock to calculate and for which purpose
(capital as a provider of services in production or as a store of
wealth)
Boston, 20 August 2010
What Istat has learnt by the EU KLEMS experience
 The KLEMS database is fundamental to guarantee
the international comparability and to promote a
different perspective analysis of the economic growth, in
particular among NSIs
 Analysis of productivity, prices, industry structures,
technology, innovation indicators and labour markets is
of fundamental relevance, better if developed with the
support of the NSIs
 EU KLEMS idea and experience should be used for
realizing a new database according to common criteria,
practical and methodological, well defined among NSIs
 In Europe, Eurostat seems to the best institution that
can implement the KLEMS database
Boston, 20 August 2010