Transcript Slide 1

EU KLEMS project on
Growth and Productivity in
the European Union
Presentation for the Economic Policy Committee
22 May 2006, Brussels
Bart van Ark, Groningen Growth of Development Centre,
University of Groningen
This project is funded by the European Commission, Research
Directorate General as part of the 6th Framework Programme,
Priority 8, "Policy Support and Anticipating Scientific and
Technological Needs".
Main characteristics of EU KLEMS
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EU KLEMS project is 3-year statistical and analytical research
project funded by 6th Framework Programme
Create database on growth and productivity accounts by
industry (NACE 60+) for EU member states with a breakdown into
contributions from capital (K), labour (L), energy (E), materials
(M) and service inputs (S) from 1970 (revision and pre-revision)
15 research institutes across Europe and co-operation with
leading institutes in U.S., Canada and Japan
Strong involvement of many national statistical institutes (NSI’s):
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Provide basic data (in particular national accounts) for EU KLEMS
database
Provide feedback on data use and methodologies
Validate statistical module of the database with matches official statistics
(there will also be an analytical module which are not official statistics)
Work with Eurostat and European Commission on implementation of
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growth
and productivity accounts in national statistical programmes
NSI’s actively contribute to EU KLEMS
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Three status positions:
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Subcontracting: Statistics Finland, ISTAT, Statistics Netherlands
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Observer status: INSEE, Statistics Denmark, Statistisches
Bundesamt, Institute of National Statistics (Belgium), Statistics
Austria, Statistics Ireland, INE, Statistical Office Slovakia,
Statistical Office Poland, CSO Hungary, Czech Statistical Office,
Statistical Office Slovenia
Participatory status: Statistics Sweden, STATEC (Luxembourg),
ONS
Contacts under development:
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Greece, Portugal, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Cyprus, Malta
Also contacts with:
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USA (Harvard University, BEA, BLS),Japan (RIETI, Hitotsubashi),
Canada (Statistics Canada)
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OECD
(Statistics Dept., DSTI)
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Background for EU KLEMS project
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Policy interests:
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Developments in academic world:
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Monitoring and evaluating the Lisbon and Barcelona agendas,
complementary to existing indicators (e.g. Eurostat structural indicators)
Understand divergence between EU and US productivity performance
Impact of new entry of 10 member states on EU economic performance
Growth regression literature is troubled by lack of country and institution
specific characteristics
Growth accounting methodologies have become more sophisticated
Need for better data to test hypotheses on, e.g., skill-biased technological
change and role of non-technological innovations
Statistical developments in productivity measurement and
national accounts
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Eurostat Handbooks on Price and Volume Measures & Input-Output
Manual
Publication of OECD Productivity and Capital Measurement Manuals
Developments in light of implementation of present SNA and steps towards
next 4SNA version (e.g. role for intangibles - Canberra II group)
Increased availability of firm level databases for productivity measurement
Productivity is the Key Variable
of Economic Performance
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Output from EU KLEMS database
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Series on nominal values of output (gross output &
value added), intermediate inputs (energy, materials,
service inputs) and factor inputs (labour by
age/skill/gender and capital by asset type) by industry
& country
Volume series (1995=100 and growth rates)
Growth accounting series on output and contributions
of intermediate, factor inputs, and total factor
productivity
Additional variables: compensation of factor inputs,
quantity of labour, technology variables (R&D &
patents), import shares in intermediate inputs
Also comparative levels with industry specific output
and 6input PPPs
Research Approaches in EU KLEMS
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Data research & methodology of productivity and
national accounting:
• Capital services, price indices for ICT, input-output analysis
• International comparisons of skill levels
• Stress testing and quality control
Intermediate level research
• Measurement of services output
• Rates of return and profitability
• Analysis of productivity, prices, industry structures
• Decomposition and inputs contributions in growth accounting
• Technology and innovation indicators
Analytical research
• Labour markets and skills
• Technological progress and innovation
• Link
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Intermediate level research:
decomposition of growth rates and
comparative levels
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Contributions of factor inputs (labour and capital) and
TFP to aggregate growth of LP
Contributions of major industry groups to aggregate LP
Contribution of factor inputs to productivity growth to
industry LP
International comparisons of LP and TFP productivity
levels between major industry groups
International comparisons of relative intensity levels of
intermediate and factor input use
Sources: based on pre-EU KLEMS data from Groningen Growth and
Development Centre (http://www.ggdc.net)
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Main cause of slower productivity
growth in EU-15 is decline in TFP growth
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Source: pre-EU KLEMS data, GGDC
Market services industries are key to
aggregate labour productivity growth
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Source: pre-EU KLEMS data, GGDC
Much variation between service industries
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Source: pre-EU KLEMS data, GGDC
Continental European countries show
slowest TFP growth in market services
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Source: pre-EU KLEMS data, GGDC
European countries least energy and
services-intensive but more materialsintensive than U.S.
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Weighted average intermediate input use per hour
worked, 1997, US=1.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
U.S.=1
1.0
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ICT production
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Goods-producing
Energy
Materials
AUS
CAN
UK
DEU
FRA
NLD
AUS
CAN
UK
DEU
FRA
NLD
AUS
CAN
UK
DEU
FRA
NLD
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Market services
Services
Source: pre-EU KLEMS data, GGDC
U.S. most ICT intensive and highest
labour quality; non ICT capital intensity in
Europe still larger
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Weighted average factor input use per hour
worked, 1997, US=1.0
1.6
1.9
1.4
1.2
U.S.=1
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
ICT production
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Goods-producing
ICT capital
Non-ICT capital
AUS
CAN
UK
DEU
FRA
NLD
AUS
CAN
UK
DEU
FRA
NLD
AUS
CAN
UK
DEU
FRA
NLD
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Market services
Labour quality
Source: pre-EU KLEMS data, GGDC
Time frame
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Preliminary database available to NSI’s for feedback since April 2006
Stress testing and quality control in autumn of 2006 (incl. EU KLEMS
Data Co-ordination Group meeting)
November 2006: final discussion at Eurostat NAWG for preparation of
statistical modules
End of 2006/early 2007: public release of EU KLEMS analytical module
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Subsequent (gradual) release of statistical modules in consultation
with NSI’s
Beginning of 2007: first discussion of public results at EPC
February/March 2007: public launch event in Brussels
2007: development of Statistical Implementation Plan
End of 2007: 2nd release and publication of 2 or 3 volume series on EU
KLEMS (methodology, comparative country studies and analytical
research)
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Contact Details
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Bart van Ark (project director)
Groningen Growth and Development Centre,University of Groningen
PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen
Telephone: +31 50 363 3674
E-mail: [email protected]
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Gerard Ypma (project administrator)
Groningen Growth and Development Centre,University of Groningen
PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen
Telephone: +31 50 363 4838
E-mail: [email protected]
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E-mail:
Website:
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[email protected]
http://www.euklems.net