Transcript From Projects to Programmes

Guinea-Bissau
Sao Tome & Prin
Gambia
Mali
Comoros
Benin
CAR
Madagascar
Chad
Sudan
Tanzania
Niger
Kenya
Somalia
Eq. Guinea
Sierra Leone
Senegal
Togo
Congo DR
Cameroon
Angola
Cote d Ivoire
Malawi
Uganda
Zambia
Rwanda
ITNs
Zimbabwe
Burundi
Any nets
Swaziland
0
20
40
60
% Under 5s who slept under a net the night before the survey
80
-0
0
Ju
n0
Au 0
g00
Oc
t-0
De 0
c-0
0
Fe
b01
Ap
r-0
1
Ju
n0
Au 1
g01
Oc
t-0
De 1
c-0
1
Fe
b02
Ap
r-0
2
Ju
n0
Au 2
g02
Oc
t-0
De 2
c-0
2
Fe
b03
Ap
r-0
3
Ju
n03
Ap
r
20
18
16
10
8
Nigeria: Trends in net coverage:
`
% of households with at least 1 net
14
12
10.7
10.9 10.9
9.8
9.8
10
10.4
8.9
7.2
6
4
2
0
Measuring Coverage - Unresolved Issues
• Two agreed numerators –
• “HH ownership” &
“U5 slept last night”
But denominator? All HH? Area?
• What is an ITN ? (public health view)
– Quality of net
– When does a net stop being “treated” ?
• Time
• Entomology
• Epidemiology
– Source
• What is an ITN ? Consumer view
Subsidy Delivery Systems
• Planning Vouchers
– Measuring commercial “availability”,
“responsiveness”
• Comparing the cost effectiveness of
alternative systems
–
–
–
–
–
Scale
Immediate impact vs sustainability
Direct vs indirect effects
Substitution
comparing impact of targeting different
groups (geog. vs biol. vs econ.)
Overarching Questions
• Stimulating Commercial Markets
–
–
–
–
–
Tracking sales - volumes and shares
Diverse market structures
Demand vs Supply = chicken and egg
Supply in remote areas – pull vs push
Local supply?
• Enabling Environment
– Tax and tariff – what do we want?
– Hidden costs and obstacles
Net ownership by SES
100
80
Dodoma1
60
Dodoma2
40
Mtwara1
20
Mtwara2
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Guinea-Bissau
Sao Tome & Prin
Gambia
Mali
Comoros
Benin
CAR
Madagascar
Chad
Sudan
Tanzania
Niger
Kenya
Somalia
Eq. Guinea
Sierra Leone
Senegal
Togo
Congo DR
Cameroon
Angola
Cote d Ivoire
Malawi
Uganda
Zambia
Rwanda
ITNs
Zimbabwe
Burundi
Any nets
Swaziland
0
20
40
60
% Under 5s who slept under a net the night before the survey
80
Tanzanian manufacturers' net sales to local
commercial market (year 2000): total = 1.9 m
Sunflag
A to Z
TMTL
Tanzanian manufacturers' net sales to ITN projects
(year 2000): total = 1.5 m
Sunflag
A to Z
TMTL
The Tanzania Story...4
2000 - 2003
• National Coverage 37% overall
– 28% rural hh own at least one net
– 80% in dar
– 66% other urban
•
•
•
•
Implies 20% (1.2-fold) growth p.a. since 1999
~ mean annual growth in sales since 1994
Socioeconomic inequities reduced
Voucher system to deliver targeted subsidies
Conclusions:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The cup is half full !
Local systems
Rapid & sustained capacity for growth
Supply and demand grow together
Competition: quality, efficiency, prices
Equity issues
Subsidies can complement, not replace