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Agency on statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan Training Workshop on the Compilation of Quarterly National Accounts for Economic Cooperation Organization Member Countries Nasriddinov A. Economist of the National Account department Agency of the statistics under the President of Republic of Tajikistan 8 – 11 March 2015 Tehran, Iran (Venue: Statistical Research and Training Centre of Iran) 1 The introduction of SNA -93 With the transition of the Republic of Tajikistan to the market economy emerged historical due to the transition from the balance of the national economy to the system of national accounts to be used for the reflection of macroeconomic processes in the transition period of the republic to the socio - oriented market economy 2 The introduction of SNA -93 The practical implementation of System of National Accounts in Tajikistan started in 19941995 The implementation of SNA -93 was spent in statistics: - with cooperation of the international organization - Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States, rendering the consultative and methodical help in assimilation of SNA. 3 The introduction of SNA -93 The national accounts (NA) are compiled by the Agency in line with SNA 1993 methodology by using data collected by various Agency departments and administrative data submitted by other government agencies, including National bank of Tajikistan (NBT) and Ministry of finance (MF). The Agency produces all main current accounts, some accounts for institutional sectors, monthly – annual GDP, gross regional product GRP (estimation) 4 GDP calculated by three methods: In Tajikistan GDP calculated by three method: production method expenditure method income method 5 GDP calculated by three methods: PRODUCTION METHOD – production of branches of economy by statistical report, data of taxes and subsidies by state budget of Ministry of Finance, the intermediate consumption calculated by statistical reports which included material expenditure. EXPENDITURE METHOD - expenditure of households estimated by goods streams and data of household’s survey, expenditure of government on the basis of state budget, fixed capital formation definite on the basis of information of construction department, changes in inventories complained by annual report of account balance of enterprises and estimated by methodical calculation, export and import estimated by data of external trade statistics and then corrected with “Payment Balance” of National Bank. INCOME METHOD - data of labor statistics and data of state budget by taxes and subsidies. 6 Currently in Tajikistan implemented calculations accounts Account of goods and services Production account Generation of income account Allocation of primary income account Secondary distribution of income account Used of disposable income account Capital account 7 Main data sources of National Account Statistical information (annual and quarterly) Data of state budget of Ministry of Finance Selective services of branches of economy Data of household survey Data of Labour Force survey Estimation of aggregates of SNA Production side all aggregates compiled in current and constant prices. Expenditure side - all aggregates compiled in current and constant prices. Constant prices –all aggregates calculated only in prices of previous year 9 Quarter GDP AS start to produce QNA in 2008, with technical support international expert (Slovakia) in the framework SNSS project (WB); For calculation of QNA used cumulative data and we made estimated quarterly data, because in more statistics areas we have not quarterly reporting forms (agricultural, trade, services, construction etc. 10 Quarter GDP 2011 (est.) mln. dollar Output Intermediate consumption Gross value added Taxes GDP QI 1563 762 801 157 958 Q II 2408 1175 1233 229 1462 Q III 3407 1705 1702 219 1921 Q IV 3764 1786 1978 204 2182 Total 11142 5427 5715 809 6524 11 Quarter GDP 2012 mln. dollar Output Intermediate consumption Gross value added Taxes GDP QI 1807 828 979 180 1158 Q II 2780 1319 1461 277 1738 Q III 4001 1935 2066 256 2322 Q IV 4145 1993 2151 217 2369 Total 12733 6075 6657 929 7587 12 Quarter GDP 2013 mln. dollar Output Intermediate consumption Gross value added Taxes GDP QI 2192 1036 1157 242 1399 Q II 3226 1502 1724 207 1931 Q III 3891 2272 1620 300 1920 Q IV 5177 2254 2923 333 3256 Total 14486 7063 7423 1083 8506 13 The future plan is to do the following 1: strengthening human capacity, skills and knowledge in the of national accounts department AS; Improved data on industry statistics, use of quarterly price index to calculate the QNA; improvement of estimates of GDP at constant prices; improvement of the quarterly calculations simultaneously organization collecting quarterly data in branch departments agencies; 14 The future plan is to do the following 2: improvement of methods of measurement of the output of the informal sector and illegal activities; improvement of calculation of consumption of fixed capital; improvement in the method of calculation of holding gains; improvement of calculation of FISIM; financial accounts; completion of the implementation of the SNA 1993 and phased transition to the SNA2008 15 Conclusion The very high turnover and weak capacity of the personnel require that their practical skills are strengthened in the compilation of national accounts, indepth methodological recommendations and directions for improvement of further work. 16 Conclusion For this reason we need to prepare and teach people on the one of the main sector of statistics – National accounts. The important issues also is to Learn from experience of other countries. Also improvement of the quality of economic statistics is important. 17 THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION ! www.stat.tj E-mail office: [email protected] 18 THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION ! !با تشکر از توجه İLGİNİZ İÇİN TEŞEKKÜR EDERİZ! НАЗАРЛАРЫҢЫЗҒА РАХМЕТ DİQQƏTİNİZƏ GÖRƏ TƏŞƏKKÜR EDİRƏM توجه کی لی شکریه 19