Transcript New Presentation - Syddansk Universitet

Institute for Transport Studies
FACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT
Policy Instruments for Reducing Greenhouse
Gas Emissions from Transport
Chris Nash
Changes in EU-27 greenhouse gas
emissions by sector, 1990-2006
Data source: EEA 2008. Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2008
http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/PivotApp/pivot.aspx?pivotid=455
EU27 passenger km (1995-2007 % growth)
Car
21.4
2 wheeler
24.8
Bus and coach
6.9
Rail
12.7
Tram and metro
20.1
Air
70.4
Sea
-7.7
Total
22.3
Source: Eurostat
EU27 freight tonne km (1995-2007 % growth)
Road
49.6
Rail
17.1
IWW
15.6
Pipelines
12.1
Sea
37.0
Air
55.0
Total
38.0
Source: Eurostat
Transport demand growth Britain 19772007 (% change over preceding 10 years)
Freight
Passenger
1987
16
31
1997
20
22
2007
9
12
Source: Transport Statistics Great Britain 2008
Transport demand growth by mode
Britain1997-2007 (% change)
Road
Freight
Passenger
10
car
9
bus 14
Rail
24
Source Transport Statistics Great Britain 2008
41
Energy Consumption by Mode, inter city
passenger transport 2010
Intercity train
High speed Air (500 km)
train
Diesel car on
motorway
Seating capacity
434
377
99
5
Load factor
44%
49%
70%
36%
Primary energy
(MJ per seat km)
0.22
0.53
1.8
0.34
(MJ per
passenger km)
0.5
1.08
(0.76*)
2.57
0.94
*At 70% load factor
Source: Derived from CE Delft (2003)
Energy consumption by mode – city
commuting 2010
Metro
Tram
City bus
Diesel car
Seating capacity
120
180
48
5
Load factor
35%
30%
33%
23%
Primary energy
(MJ per seat km)
0.24
0.21
0.30
0.52
(MJ per
passenger km)
0.69
0.70
0.91
2.26
Source: derived from CE Delft (2003)
Energy consumption by mode – long
distance non bulk freight 2010
HGV
Electric train
Diesel train
Inland
Waterway
27
790
790
2575
Load factor
62%
44%
44%
32%
Primary energy
MJ per tonne km
0.86
0.49
0.56
1.11
Capacity tonnes
Source: CE Delft (2003)
Policy Instruments - price
• Road transport already subject to:
•
Value added tax
•
Fuel tax
•
Annual licence duty
•
Sales tax
• And in some cases
•
Road pricing
•
Heavy goods vehicle kilometre charge
Impact of road fuel price on demand
Elasticities with respect to fuel price
Short run
Long run
Road transport fuel demand
0.25
0.77
Car km
0.15
0.31
Source: Graham and Glaister (2004)
Air transport elasticities with respect to fare
Business
0.5
Leisure
1.3
Source: Riddington (2006)
EU Policy
• Adopted short run marginal cost cost-pricing as basis of
policy (White Papers in 1998 and 2001)
• Legislation exists on rail and heavy goods vehicles
• Subsidiarity applies in the case of cars
• International agreements on air and water transport
preclude fuel tax or VAT (strictly only for international
transport but often applies to domestic as well)
Road pricing
• Several Norwegian cities, Central London and Stockholm
have implemented urban road pricing
• London and Stockholm achieved a 20% reduction in traffic
• Funding used to improve roads and/or public transport
• But extension difficult in terms of acceptability (Edinburgh,
Manchester)
• Several countries (Switzerland, Austria, Germany) have a
km charge for goods vehicles
• Some countries considering country wide road pricing for
all vehicles (Netherlands)
Marginal social cost
• The Marginal social costs of road transport depend on:
•
Congestion, which varies with vehicle type and traffic volume;
•
Road damage, which is sensitive to axle load and road quality;
• Environmental and accident costs, which vary widely with vehicle
type and geographical location.
Marginal social costs for car transport
(example) (euros/km)
Basel-Duisberg
Interurban petrol GRACE car petrol EV
Peak
Off-Peak
Noise
0.005
0.009
Congestion
0.123
0.002
Accident
0.008
0.008
Air pollution
0.001
0.001
Climate change
0.005
0.005
Wear and tear
0.019
0.019
0.161
0.044
Source: GRACE (2008) D7 www.grace-eu
Cost and charges for car transport
(euros/km)
Basel-Duisberg
Tolls
0.046
Fuel tax
0.056
Vehicle excise duty
0.012
Total
0.114
Peak cost
0.161
Off peak cost
0.044
Source: GRACE (2008) D7 www.grace-eu
Marginal social costs for heavy goods
vehicles (example) (euros/km)
Basel-Duisberg
Interurban diesel GRACE HGV>18 Euro II
Peak
Off-Peak
Noise
0.036
0.059
Congestion
0.657
0.009
Accident
0.050
0.050
Air pollution
0.031
0.031
Climate change
0.021
0.021
W&T
0.151
0.151
0.946
0.321
Source: GRACE (2008) D7 www.grace-eu
Cost and Charges for heavy goods
vehicles transport (euros/km)
Basel-Duisberg
Tolls
0.092
Fuel tax
0.050
Vehicle excise duty
0.021
Total
0.163
Peak costs
0.946
Off peak costs
0.321
Source: GRACE (2008) D7 www.grace-eu
Modelled impact of road pricing Europewide (IASON/TIPMAC)
• Biggest traffic reduction in core countries – they benefit
more than periphery
• Reassignment of traffic from urban to rural areas
• Higher proportion of large trucks
• 6% of road tonne km diverted to rail and water
• But 50% of traffic reduction comes from changing
distribution systems and more local sourcing of inputs and
consumer goods
Charging for externalities in other modes
• Rail
•
Electricity part of the emissions trading scheme
•
Tax on diesel for rail transport very variable
• Air
•
Fuel untaxed
•
Departure taxes in some countries
•
To join emissions trading scheme in 2012
• Water?
Policy instruments - regulation
• New vehicle standards
•
Why needed given fuel tax?
• Payback period
• Discount rates
• Second hand market
• Land use controls
• Is higher density developments one reason for the success in
restraining traffic growth in Britain?
•
Are other European countries still in the phase of urban sprawl?
Policy Instruments - investment
• Roads
•
Reduced congestion means less CO2 but
•
Roads generate traffic
•
Investment needs to be combined with efficient pricing
• Airports
•
Investment needed but combined with efficient pricing
• Public transport
•
Of extra rail traffic following urban investment,
•
41% from bus
•
33% from car
•
1% from walking/cycling
•
24% generated
• Alternative technologies
•
Do need start up funding (e.g. distribution networks, refuelling)
Conclusions
• The most obvious policy instrument is price
• But does need to be combined with regulation (mainly new vehicle
standards) and appropriate investment
• Alternative fuelled vehicles important; in the meantime rail and other
public transport offer the best hope of a rapid switch to low carbon fuel
(but depends on how electricity is produced)
• Second best methods such as public transport promotion relatively
ineffective, unless they use low carbon electricity
• Raising price impacts not just on mode split but number and length of
motorised journeys
• Decoupling of transport demand and GDP growth IS possible!