投影片 1 - Financial Secretary

Transcript 投影片 1 - Financial Secretary

Update on the Hong Kong Economy for The Task Force on Economic Challenges

Government Economist 22 June 2009

Global recession deepened more than expected Q1, but signs of stabilisation emerging

External environment worsened more than expected in the first few months World Consensus forecast by private sector analysts

Jan 2009

-0.2 (Real GDP growth in 2009)

Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Apr 2009

-0.8 -1.6 -2.1

May 2009

-2.3

US Euro area Japan China -1.8 -1.4 -1.7 7.4 -2.1 -2.0 -3.8 7.0 -2.8 -2.6 -5.8 7.0 -2.7 -3.4 -6.3 7.0 -2.9 -3.7 -6.1 7.5 Jun 2009

-2.6

-2.8 -4.2 -6.6 7.5 3

US economy showing signs of stabilisation … US: Activity fall-off showing signs of stabilisation

80 Index 70 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Business New Orders) 60 50 40 30 20 10 ISM Manufacturing Index (Business New Orders) 0 01/05 07/05 01/06 07/06 01/07 07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09

Job losses also began to taper

400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 Person in thousand Change in non-farm payroll -600 -700 -800 01/05 07/05 01/06 07/06 01/07 07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09 4

… but a sustained recovery not yet in sight US recession in Q1 still severe US imports plunging in tandem with consumption

10 8 Rate of change (%) Real GDP q-t-q growth 35 30 25 Year-on-year growth rate (%) 6 20 15 4 2 10 5 0 0 -5 -2 -4 Leading Indicator (y-o-y change) -10 -15 -20 -25 -6 -30 -8 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 May -35 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 Imports from Asia in nominal terms Imports demand in real terms 06 07 08 09 Apr 5

Economic sentiments in EU and Japan improved, but activity still lacklustre Japan GDP vs Tankan Survey EU GDP vs Sentiment Index

40 Rate of change (%) Q-t-q rate of change (%) 8 30 Index Rate of change (%) 6 30 Real GDP growth (RHS) 6 20 GDP year-on-year real growth (RHS) 4 20 4 10 2 10 2 0 0 0 0 -10 -2 -10 -2 -20 -4 -20 -4 -30 -40 Sentiment Index change (LHS) -6 -8 -50 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 -10 -30 -40 TANKAN Large enterprises (LHS) -6 -8 -50 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 -10 6

China’s economic situation turned better rebounding China's industrial production picking up

75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 Index Year-on-year rate of change (%) Exports (RHS) Manufacturing PMI - New export orders (LHS) 25 1/05 7/05 1/06 7/06 1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 60 30 Year-on-year rate of change (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 25 20 15 10 5 -30 -40 -50 -60 0 -5 Value added of industry 1/05 7/05 1/06 7/06 1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7

HK economy heavily hit by collapse in world trade in Q1 …

GDP plunged by 7.8% in 2009 Q1, amid the fall-off in external demand

25 Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%) 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -7.8% -10 -15 GDP Exports of goods and services -20 -19.6% -25 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 9

Exports plunged but orders improving

75 PMI (Index) 70 65 60 55 Year-on-year rate of change (%) 50 40 30 20 10 50 0 45 40 -10 -20 35 30 China Manufacturing PMI - New export orders (LHS) Hong Kong's total exports (RHS) -30 -40 25 -50 01/05 05/05 09/05 01/06 05/06 09/06 01/07 05/07 09/07 01/08 05/08 09/08 01/09 05/09 10

Retail sales showing a relative improvement

30 Year-on-year rate of change (%) 25 Retail sales in volume Visitor arrivals 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 10/05 1/06 4/06 7/06 10/06 1/07 4/07 7/07 10/07 1/08 4/08 7/08 10/08 1/09 4/09 11

Results of Business Tendency Survey, as a leading indicator, improved

60 50 40 30 20 10 Net balance (% point) Real GDP growth (RHS) Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%) 15 12 9 6 3 0 -10 0 -3 -20 -30 -40 -50 Expected change in business situation (LHS) -6 -9 -12 -60 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Note : Net balance indicates the direction of expected change in business situation in next quarter. It refers to the difference in percentage points between the proprotion of establishments choosing "better" over that choosing "worse". A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend.

-15 12

Results of latest Business Tendency Survey (Large firms) Views on expected changes in business situation in the following quarter (Net balance) 2008 2009

Manufacturing Q3 over Q2 +24 Q4 over Q3 -24 Q1 over Q4 -50 Q2 over Q1 +7 Construction Import/Export Trade and Wholesale Retail Accommodation and Food Services Transportation, Storage and Courier Services Information and Communications Financing and Insurance Real Estate Professional and Business Services +15 +17 +21 +8 +17 +38 +14 +5 +16 -15 -8 -23 -30 -16 +7 -26 +1 -18 -67 -64 -59 -78 -54 -15 -53 -1 -42 -51 -38 -68 -73 -49 -24 -24 -28 -40 All Sectors Above +17 -15 -53 -36 Source : Quarterly Business Tendency Survey, C&SD.

Unemployment rate stabilised for the first time after rising for eight consecutive months

Jun-Aug 2008 Jul-Sep 2008 Aug-Oct 2008 Sep-Nov 2008 Oct-Dec 2008 Nov 2008-Jan 2009 Dec 2008-Feb 2009 Jan-Mar 2009 Feb-Apr 2009 Mar-May 2009 Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (%) m-t-m change (% point) 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.3 0.0 +0.2

+0.1

+0.3

+0.5

+0.4

+0.2

+0.1

0.0

Total employment number also registered its first increase Monthly average # (number)

2008 2009

Trading and logistics

Trading (1) Logistics (2)

Financial service

Financing Insurance

Tourism and consumption-related services

Retail Food services Accommodation services

Real estate and construction

Real estate Construction

Overall

Dec

4 400

4 100 300

-2 900

-2 300 -600

6 600

7 700 -500 -600

4 600

1 700 2 800

11 200

Jan & Feb

-2 100

2 350 -4 450

-2 200

-1 250 200

-4 250

-1 000 -3 600 300

-5 700

-2 650 -3 100

-15 600

Mar

-12 300

-11 800 -600

200

300 -100

-6 600

-6 300 -700 500

900

4 500 -3 600

-5 500

Apr

-9 000

-8 700 -300

3 100

1 900 1 200

500

-1 600 1 000 1 200

-11 100

-3 400 -7 800

-5 500

May

-18 400

-15 200 -3 300

9 200

6 600 2 600

3 100

3 200 -1 000 800

2 300

1 700 700

12 800

Notes: (1) The trading sector includes import/export trades and wholesale trade.

(2) The logistics sector includes freight transport, storage, postal and courier services.

(#) Difference in employment in the 3-month ending the reference month as compared to the 3-month ending the month before.

Loan demand remains weak but credit access improves

32 Year-on-year growth rate (%) 28 Loans for use in HK 24 20 16 14 12 10 8 % share of SMEs surveyed 12 6 8 4 4 0 -4 1/07 4/07 7/07 10/07 1/08 4/08 7/08 10/08 1/09 4/09 2 Indicating that current Access to Credit was very tight/tighter as compared with the normal situation Expecting tighter Access to Credit in the coming month 0 28 Nov 12 Dec 2 Jan 16 Jan 6 Feb 20 Feb 6 Mar 20 Mar 3 Apr 17 Apr 1 May 15 May 29 5 May Jun (Week ending) 16

How does HK fare relative to other advanced Asian economies?

Many other Asian economies saw even larger declines in GDP

Hong Kong Singapore Korea Taiwan Japan

Year-on-year growth rate of real GDP (%)

Annual 2.4 1.1 2.2 0.1 -0.7 Q1

2008

Q2 7.3 6.7 4.1 2.5 5.5 6.2 1.3 4.3 4.6 0.6 Q3 1.5 0.0 3.1 -1.0 -0.3 Q4 -2.6 -4.2 -3.4 -8.6 -4.3

2009

Q1 -7.8 -10.1 -4.2 -10.2 -8.8 18

Export performance better than many in Asia Hong Kong

China Japan Singapore Korea Taiwan Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

East Asia Exports of selected East Asian economies

(year-on-year growth rate in US$ terms) Q3

5.6

23.0 12.9 21.2 27.0 8.0 27.9 21.3 4.1 26.1

18.6

2008 Q4

-1.8

4.2 -9.9 -13.9 -9.9 -24.7 -5.6 -12.6 -22.3 -10.7

-5.9

Jan-Feb

-21.9

-21.2 -38.5 -35.0 -26.7 -37.2 -33.7 -29.9 -39.9 -19.2

-28.5

2009 Mar

-20.9

-17.2 -43.9 -28.2 -22.1 -35.8 -28.3 -26.9 -30.8 -23.1

-27.2

Apr

-17.8

-22.6 -36.8 -32.9 -19.7 -34.3 -22.6 -35.4 -35.2 -26.1

-27.1

May

N.A.

-26.4 N.A.

-30.6

-28.5 -31.4 N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

How does the current crisis compare with the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis?

World GDP has contracted much more severely during the current crisis World GDP *

3 2 1 7 Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%) Q3 1997 6 5 4 Q3 2008 0 -1 -2 -3 2 quarters after crisis : Q1 1998: 4.6% Q1 2009: -1.7% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Number of quarters after crisis began 8 9 10 11 Note: (*) The world GDP plotted here is weighted according to the shares of trading partners in Hong Kong's total exports.

Asian exports more hard hit during the current crisis East Asia's exports

-10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 0 20 Year-on-year rate of change in US$ terms (%) 15 10 5 0 -5 Oct 1997 Oct 2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 6 months after crisis : Apr 1998 : -3.2% Apr 2009 : -27.1% 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Number of months after crisis began 22

Hence the fall in Hong Kong’s exports was also severe this time

25 Year-on-year growth rate in real terms (%) 20 15 10 98 AFC current crisis -5 -10 5 0 Hong Kong's total exports -15 -20 -25 Q1 97 Q3 97 Q1 98 Q3 98 Q1 99 Q3 99 Q1 00 Q3 00 Q1 01 Q3 01 Q1 02 Q3 02 Q1 03 Q3 03 Q1 04 Q3 04 Q1 05 Q3 05 Q1 06 Q3 06 Q1 07 Q3 07 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 23

Stock market plunged during both crises Movements of Hang Seng Index

110 100 Peak=100 30/10/2007 (31 638) 90 80 70 60 50 7/8/1997 (16 673) 40 latest : 18/6/2009 : 17 777 -43.8% from peak in 2007 30 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 450 480 510 540 570 Number of trading days from peak 24

But housing market fared much better this time Residential property prices

105 Peak=100 Jun 2008 95 % change from the peak : May 2009 : -9.4% Sep 1998 ： -43.0% 85 Oct 1997 75 65 55 45 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Number of months from peak period 26 28 30 32 34 36 25

18 %

Interest rates are very accommodative this time Movements of 3-month HIBOR

16 Peak in1997 crisis : 16.6% (13/1/98) Peak in current crisis : 4.4% (13/10/08) 14 12 10 8 6 3/7/1997 4 2 29/8/2008 0 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 Number of trading days from the reference date 26

100.5

100.0

99.5

Labour market more resilient with less job loss Employment (seasonally adjusted)

Peak = 100 Aug 2008 % decline from the peak : May 2009 : 0.6% Sep 1998 : 2.7% 99.0

98.5

98.0

Dec 1997 97.5

97.0

96.5

96.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Number of months from peak 27

Effectiveness of Government’s relief measures

Several rounds of relief measures have rendered some support to the economy

• Discretionary relief measures announced since last year amounted to some $87.6 billion, or 5.2% of GDP.

• These measures taken together would raise GDP by about 2 percentage points this year alone • Some 8 600 firms benefitted from the Loan Guarantee Schemes, involving loan amount of over $22.7bn, and helping to secure the jobs of around 160 000 people • Consumer sentiment held relatively firm and cumulative job loss much less than during AFC • Important to adhere to fiscal prudence and return to balanced budget over the medium term 29

2009 Updated forecasts

GDP forecast for 2009 marked down: -5.5% to -6.5%

• Contraction in the first quarter bigger than expected • Significant mark-down in world GDP forecast since Feb 2009 • External sector in near term still under the severe drag of plunging global trade flow, yet with prospect of relative improvement later this year 31

Recovery path possibly still bumpy ...

• Risk of global financial market showing renewed volatility; credit markets still not functioning properly • Negative feedback between the financial markets and the real economy • Uncertainties about impact of the human swine influenza 32

Outlook for 2009: Positive factors

• Signs suggesting the pace of global economic contraction will slow in the coming quarters • Weaker dollar will help exports • Relative improvement in economic sentiment in US and Europe • Mainland economy poised for a faster growth • Low local interest rates 33

Private sector analysts’ forecasts for Hong Kong in 2009

Bank of China Citigroup Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Goldman HSBC Hang Seng Bank IMF JP Morgan Morgan Stanley Standard Chartered Consensus Forecast 2nd meeting in Dec 2008 0.5% 0.3% -2.2% N.A.