Transcript 投影片 1 - Financial Secretary

Update on the Hong Kong Economy for
The Task Force on Economic Challenges
Government Economist
3 April 2009
1
Global economic situation continued
to worsen…
2
US: recession in 2009 likely to be
the worst since WWII
US recession in Q4 most servere
since 1982
10
8
Rate of change (%)
US imports plunging in tandem
with consumption
30
US's
Leading
Indicator
6
25
20
Year-on-year growth rate (%)
US's imports
from Asia in
nominal
terms
15
4
10
2
5
0
0
-2
-4
-6
-5
US's GDP
annualised
q-t-q rate of change
in real terms
-10
US's imports
demand
in real terms
-15
-20
-8
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
3
EU and Japan likewise in dire state
EU GDP vs Sentiment Index
50
40
30
Year-on-year
growth rate (%)
Quarter-to-quarter
growth rate (%)
EU's GDP
annualised q-t-q rate of
change in real terms
(RHS)
20
Japan GDP vs Tankan Survey
Index
6
40
4
2
0
-20
6
Japan GDP
Real Growth
(RHS)
30
20
4
2
10
10
-10
Year-on-year growth rate (%)
50
0
EU's
Sentiment
Index
(LHS)
0
-10
-2
-20
-30
-30
0
Japan TANKAN
Large enterprises
(LHS)
-4
-2
-4
-40
-40
-50
-6
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
-50
-6
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
4
Asia’s recession deepened further
GDP growth sharply down
15
Exports all plunging in Jan & Feb
(Year-on-year % change)
Year-on-year growth rate (%)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Q1
04
Q3
04
Q1
05
Q3
05
Q1
06
Q3
06
Q1
07
Q3
07
Q1
08
Q3
08
China
Japan
Hong Kong
Singapore
Korea
Taiwan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Q3 08
Q4 08
Jan & Feb
09
China
23.1
4.4
-21.1
Japan
3.2
-23.1
-47.6
Hong Kong
5.5
-2.1
-22.4
Singapore
-8.6
-17.8
-29.8
Korea
27.0
-9.9
-26.4
Taiwan
8.0
-24.7
-37.2
Indonesia
27.9
-6.2
-36.1*
Malaysia
16.8
-7.5
-27.8*
Philippines
4.0
-22.5
-40.6*
Thailand
26.0
-7.6
-16.0
(*) January figures.
5
Guangdong’s processing exports
and imports markedly down
China's Exports
50
China's Imports
Year on Year growth (%)
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
Mainland's exports
Year on Year growth (%)
-10
Guangdong's exports
-20
Jan & Feb/09
Guangdong's processing
trade export : -25.3%
-40
-50
01/06
Guangdong's imports
-20
Guangdong's processing
trade exports
-30
07/06
01/07
07/07
Mainland's imports
01/08
07/08
-30
Guangdong's processing
trade imports
Jan & Feb/09
Guangdong's processing
trade import : -37.1%
-40
-50
01/06
01/09
07/06
01/07
07/07
01/08
07/08
01/09
6
Export orders rebounding
CFLP China Manufacturing PMI
( New export orders shifted forward by 1 month)
75
Year-on-year rate of change (%)
PMI (Index)
50
70
40
65
30
60
20
55
10
50
0
45
-10
40
-20
35
China Manufacturing PMI - New export orders (LHS)
-30
China's exports (RHS)
30
-40
25
01/05
-50
07/05
01/06
07/06
01/07
07/07
01/08
07/08
01/09
7
Hong Kong economic situation
8
Latest local developments in 2009
• Decline in exports even steeper in January and
February
• Retail sales fell in January and February combined
• Flat prices stabilised after an extended period of
subdued activities
• Credit conditions eased somewhat in general, but
remain tight for sectors hit direct by the shrinking trade
flows (e.g. I/E trade and logistics)
• Unemployment rate risen further; employment on a
general downtrend
9
External trade
10
Exports sharply down
30
20
Year-on-year growth rate in real terms (%)
8
Hong Kong's total exports
(LHS)
80
7
60
6
40
5
20
4
0
3
-20
2
-40
1
-60
0
-80
Year-on-year growth
rate in tonne (%)
Year-on-year growth
rate in TEU (%)
Container throughput
(RHS)
30
25
20
15
10
10
0
5
0
Feb
-19.7%
-10
World GDP*
(RHS)
Q4/08
1.7%
-20
Jan-Feb
-24%
-30
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Jan-Feb
Q1
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0909#
-5
-10
-15
Air cargo
(LHS)
-22.0%
-20
-25
-30
1/97 1/98 1/99 1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09
(*) The world GDP being plotted here is weighted
by Hong Kong's total exports of goods.
(#) Crude estimates.
11
Indicators of external trade all down
(year-on-year rate of change)
2008
Q3
2.1%
Q4
-3.5%
2009
Jan & Feb
-24%#
US
-7.1%
-13.0%
-24%#
EU
2.0%
-6.3%
-23%#
Japan
-1.2%
-1.0%
-16%#
Mainland
3.9%
0.4%
-25%#
Asia excl. Mainland and Japan
2.2%
-8.2%
-28%#
Air cargoes
-3.6%
-18.6%
-24.7%
Container throughput
7.4%
-10.3%
-22%#
Exports
(#) Crude estimates.
12
Domestic sector
13
Private consumption fell in
2008Q4
Investment also deteriorated
on dimmer prospects
Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
16
40
14
12
10
Private consumption
expenditure
8
30
Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)
Expenditure of machinery,
equipment and
computer software
20
6
4
10
2
0
0
-3.6%
-2
-3.2%
-10
-4
-6
-20
-8
-10
Overall
investment
expenditure
Expenditure of
building and
construction
-17.3%
-18.7%
-30
-12
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
14
Consumption and investment:
Relevant indicators
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009
Jan&Feb
(year-on-year % change in real terms)
Consumption
Retail sales volume
4.2
-2.3
-3.6
Restaurant receipts
6.6
2.9
N.A.
Visitor arrivals
3.4
-0.9
1.8
10.6
-18.7
N.A.
-4.1
-3.6
N.A.
-10.0
-13.4
-16.2
Investment
Machinery and
equipment
Building and
construction
Building consents
(8-quarter average)
15
Financial services
16
Activities are all down
Loans
-4.6%
(Jan 09 over Sep 08)
-21.0%
(Jan 09 over Sep 08)
-3.5%
(Jan 09 over Sep 08)
Stock market turnover
-29.2%
(Feb 09 over Aug 08)
IPO activities
-96.1%
(Oct 08 – Feb 09, y-o-y)
Banking sector receipts
-45.5%
(Q4 2008, y-o-y)
Asset management receipts
-44.7%
(Q4 2008, y-o-y)
–
Trade
–
Other than trade finance
17
Property market
18
Property market held stable over the
past 3 months
200
Index
18000
x
180
Residential Price Index (Large)
Residential Price Index (Small)
Residential Price Index (Overall)
Number
Residential property
transactions
16000
14000
160
12000
140
137.5
10000
120
106.0
104.9
100
6000
80
4487
4000
60
40
1/03
8000
2000
1/04
1/05
1/06
1/07
1/08
1/09
0
1/03
1/04
1/05
1/06
1/07
1/08
1/09
19
Fewer new private
construction projects…
50
but Government’s increased
construction to provide some offset
Year-on-year growth rate in real terms (%)
40
Building & construction expenditure
(Private)
30
Building consents (8-quarter moving
average) (2-quarters lag)
Capital Works Expenditure
20
($ billion)
10
0
-10
2008-09
23.0*
2009-10
39.3
Q408
-8.0%
-13.4%
-20
-30
-40
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
(*) Excluding injection into WKCD.
20
Labour market
21
Unemployment rate rising markedly
across-the-board
Dec 08 – Feb
09(3)
Change in unemployment rate
over Jun-Aug 08
(%)
(% point)
4.8
2.3
Trading(1)
4.2
2.0
Logistics(2)
6.2
3.1
6.1
1.6
Retail trade
5.4
1.1
Restaurants
7.5
2.1
Hotels
2.7
1.1
7.9
2.7
Real estate
3.9
1.0
Construction
9.8
3.5
2.5
0.9
Financing
2.5
1.0
Insurance
2.5
0.7
Others (including first time job seekers)
3.5
0.0
Total (seasonally adjusted)
5.0
1.8
Trading and logistics
Tourism and consumption-related
services
Real estate and construction
Financial services
Notes:
(1) The trading sector includes import/export trades and wholesale trade.
(2) The logistics sector includes freight transport, storage, postal and courier services.
(3) Provisional figures.
Source: General Household Survey, Census and Statistics Department.
22
Total job losses by sector
since Jun-Aug 2008
Difference in employment at Dec 2008 – Feb 2009 as compared to Jun-Aug 2008
Trading and logistics
-17 400
Trading(1)
-2 600
Logistics(2)
-14 800
Financial services
-13 500
Financing
-13 700
Insurance
100
Tourism and consumption-related services
-500
Retail trade
4 300
Restaurants
-5 300
Hotels
Real estate and construction
Real estate
Construction
500
1 300
300
-1 700
Notes: (1) The trading sector includes import/export trades and wholesale trade.
(2) The logistics sector includes freight transport, storage, postal and courier services.
(3) The figures being listed here are provisional.
Source: General Household Survey, Census and Statistics Department.
23
Feedback from SMEs
24
Credit situation easing somewhat
since early 2009
(% of SMEs firms reporting tighter than normal credit situation)
SMEs by sectors
End-Nov
End-Dec
End-Jan
End-Feb
20 Mar
Wholesale trade
12.0
10.0
5.3
0
0
Retail trade
10.0
8.8
6.5
6.6
4.4
Import/export trades
17.1
17.0
15.7
14.0
17.3
Restaurants
19.0
10.7
11.8
11.8
8.5
Logistics
0
11.8
17.6
12.5
22.2
Travel agents
3.3
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.6
Financing institutions
12.5
10.8
7.9
7.7
7.9
Insurance agents and
brokers
15.0
10.0
5.6
10.0
10.0
Real estate and
construction
11.4
5.9
5.7
6.1
5.9
5.7
6.1
0
0
2.9
12.5
11.9
10.2
9.0
10.4
Business services
All the above sectors
25
SMEs: Firm numbers and employment
both down
No. of SMEs
(in business units)
Industry
Mining and quarrying; electricity
and gas; and construction
Sep
2008
Dec
2008
No. of persons engaged in SMEs
QTQ
change
Sep
2008
Dec
2008
QTQ
Change
806
793
-13
11 200
10 600
-600
Manufacturing
14 112
14 053
-59
90 000
88 900
-1 100
Wholesale trade
13 941
13 794
-147
58 000
56 400
-1 600
Retail trade
40 830
40 722
-108
136 700
137 200
500
Import and export trade
91 771
91 576
-195
412 000
408 500
-3 500
Restaurants and hotels
9 019
9 044
25
101 800
98 700
-3 100
Transport and storage
8 305
8 287
-18
48 000
49 500
1 500
757
745
-12
6 500
5 000
-1 500
14 351
14 494
143
49 400
48 300
-1 200
9 955
9 873
-82
30 700
28 500
-2 200
Business services
31 198
31 352
154
127 300
128 600
1 300
Community, social and personal
services
31 262
31 426
164
148 500
141 900
-6 600
266 307
266 159
-148
1 220 100
1 202 000
-18 100
Communications
Financing and insurance
Real estate
Total
26
Employment in SMEs under heavy
downward drag amid economic downturn
15
10
5
Year-on-year rate of change (%)
GDP in real terms
Total employment
0
Total SME employment
-5
-10
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08
27
2009 outlook
28
Further mark-down by private sector
analysts on Hong Kong’s GDP in 2009
Fitch:
-1.2%
JP Morgan:
-3%
Standard Chartered:
-1.8%
Hang Seng Bank:
-3%
-3%
Bank of China:
-2%
HKU:
IMF:
-2%
Morgan Stanley:
-3.8%
S&P:
-2% to
-2.5%
Deutsche Bank:
-4%
Citigroup:
-2.2%
Credit Suisse:
-4%
HKUST:
-2.2%
HSBC:
Hong Kong
Government:
-2% to
-3%
Goldman:
-4.5%
-6%
29
End
30