Transcript Fastest Growing Occupations – Next 20 Years

Community Colleges:
Preparing America’s Workforce in
the 21st Century
Presented by:
Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon
Chancellor,
Dallas County Community College District
“Nothing influences a state’s
prosperity more than the education
of its people.”
SREB Goals for Education:
Challenge to Lead, 2002
Texas represents
7.5 % of U.S. labor force &
7.6 % of U.S. population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
What’s Changing?

Demographics
 Nature of work
 Workplace
 Worker
Population Projections
1990
U.S.
2000
2010
248,709,873 281,421,906 321,102,935
+13%
Texas
+14%
16,986,510 20,851,820 25,897,018
+23%
Source: Texas State Data Center , U.S. Census Bureau
+24%
U.S. Regional Growth
by 2025
South and West will comprise
majority of growth
 Northeast
 Midwest
 West
 South
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
17.1%
20.7%
26%
36.2%
Current Demographics
US
Texas
281.4 Million
20.8 Million
All
Others
All
Others
Hispanic 13%
Afr-Am 12%
Anglo
Hispanic
Anglo
32%
52%
69%
Afr-Am 12%
2000 Census
Source: Texas State Data Center , U.S. Census Bureau
Future Demographics
By 2025 . . .
U.S.
Texas
337.8 million
29.6 million
Others
Others
Anglo
Hispanic
20%
Afr-Am 13%
Hispanic
Anglo
60%
34%
50%
10% Afr-Am
Source: U.S is extrapolated from RAND Texas projections
Texas from Texas State Data Center, assuming .5 migration scenario
The Pipeline Challenge
“America will face a social and
economic crisis unless it succeeds in
promoting and taking advantage of
racial and ethnic diversity.”
Business – Higher Education Forum - “Investing in People: Developing
All of America’s Talent on Campus and in the Workplace.”
75 Million
Baby Boomers!
Born 1946 – 1965

make up almost half of
today’s workforce
Projected U.S. Population - Age
40
39
38
37
36
Mean
Median
35
34
2001
2005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2010
2020
Geographic Distribution
Persons 65+
52% live in nine states:
 California
3.6 million
 Florida
2.8 million
 New York
2.4 million
 Texas
2.1 million
 Pennsylvania
1.9 million
 Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey
each with over 1 million.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
Projected U.S. Workforce
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Observations

Demographics
 Largest shift will be decrease of “prime-
age” (25-54) workers in the labor force.
 Men 16 and over will continue to decline
in numbers and percentage.
 Minorities and women will continue to
increase dramatically in the workforce.
Source: The Urban Institute
What’s Changing?
 Demographics

Nature of work
 Workplace
 Worker
Near Future
 By 2005, almost half of all workers
will be employed in industries that
produce or are intensive users of
information technology.
Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor
Job Creation & Skills Needed
2000-2020


80% of the jobs created will require
more post-secondary education and
technical training
Top 10 fastest growing jobs are in two
areas


Information (and related)
Health Care (and related)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
New Workforce Skills
Highly Skilled and Unskilled Jobs
as a % of the Workforce
15.6%
16%
14%
14.2%
14.1%
13.2% 12.7%
12.5%
12%
10%
1988
8%
1998
6%
2008
4%
2%
0%
Professional specialties (skilled)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Operators, laborers and
fabricators (unskilled)
Associate Degree Desired
% Growth in Occupations (1998 to 2008)
by Type* of Training Required
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Short-term onthe-job training
Long-term onthe-job training
Postsecondary
vocational
training
•Does not include all types of training
Associate
degree
Bachelor's
degree
Master's
degree
Doctoral
degree
0%
Industry Employment
2000-2010
 Service Sector – Continues to dominate
growth adding 20.5 million jobs (+19%).
 Manufacturing down by 3%.
 Health, Business, Human Services,
Engineering, Management and related
services account for 1 of every 2 non-farm
jobs.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Occupational Employment
2000-2010
 Professional and related occupations will add
7% and 5.1%, respectively.
 Transportation and material moving
occupations are projected to grow 15%.
 Office admin support will grow more slowly.
 8-10 fastest growing occupations are
computer related.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Fastest Growing Occupations,
2000–2010 (National)








Computer Software Engineer
Computer Support Specialist
Medical Assistants
Soc. & Human Serv. Asst.
Physician Asst.
Home Health Aide
Veterinary Asst.
Dental Asst.
Source: Monthly Labor Review
+100%
+ 97%
+ 57%
+ 54%
+ 53%
+ 47%
+ 40%
+ 37%
Fastest Growing Occupations,
Texas (2000-2010)








Computer & Data Processing
Management & PR
Freight/Transportation Arrangement
Automobile Repair
Osteopathic Phys. Office Work
Individual & Family /Services
Health Office Occupations
Child Care Services
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
+56%
+41%
+41%
+40%
+39%
+36%
+36%
+36%
Education Required
Projected Supply and Demand of Workers
with some Postsecondary Education
Demand (Jobs)
Supply (Workers)
150,000
140,000
Thousands
130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
1998
2008
2018
2028
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics , U.S. Census and National Alliance of Business
Implications for Workforce
Education/Training
 Labor shortage of skilled workers
 Higher levels of education will be necessary to
secure new, higher-paying jobs – 80% of jobs
will require more post-secondary education
 No easy answer whether supply of qualified
workers will meet demand in key industry
sectors
Where Are We Now?

High School Graduate or Higher

Texas = 75.7%, ranked 45th in U.S
In other words, 24% of Texas adults have not
completed a high school degree

Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

Texas = 23.3%, ranked 27th in U.S.
Source: Texas State Data Center , U.S. Census Bureau
Plans for Improvement

Closing the Gaps by 2015


Adopted by the Texas Higher Education
Coordinating Board (Oct 2000)
Goals include increasing student
participation, student success,
excellence and research
Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
What’s Changing?
 Demographics
 Nature of work

Workplace
 Worker
Declining Job Tenure
Median Years of Job Tenure
5.00
Years
4.75
4.50
4.25
1996
4.00
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
vs
2000
The Changing Workplace
 Individual
 Coordinated
 Rigid
 Flexible
 Company
 Customer Focused
Focused
 Responsive
 Non-Responsive  Sensitive to
Diversity
 Insensitive to
Diversity
 Other?_____
More Changes
 Shift from defined-benefit to defined-contribution
pensions has unknown impact.
 Various organizational responses to technology
impact productivity.
 Globalization of production has weakened the
position of U.S. workers.
 Although 1992-99 expansion increased job
opportunities, many less educated workers have
not reentered the job market.
Source: The Urban Institute
What’s Changing?
 Demographics
 Nature of work
 Workplace

Worker
The 21st Century Worker
Skills Needed:




Academic (standard)
Technical (standard)
Social new
International/Intercultural
new
Just the Beginning
% of High School Graduates Attending College
1979-97 and projected to 2010
80%
Percent Attending
71%
70%
67%
75%
66%
59.6%
60%
54%
58%
50%
40%
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for
Education Statistics and National Alliance of Business
Education for the 21st
Century Worker
Total Undergraduate Enrollment in Postsecondary Education,
1995 and 2015 (in millions)
17
Enrollment in millions
15
14
13
12
11
13.4 Million
10
9
8
1995
2015
Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Richard A. Fry. Crossing the
Great Divide. Educational Testing Services, 2000.
16 Million
2.6 Million
80% Minority
31% 35 and
older
16
National Perspective
Projected Postsecondary Enrollment Distribution
by Institution, 1975 to 2015
70%
58.1%
60%
50%
40%
30%
56.5%55.8%
1975
1997
2015
38.1%
35.5%
39.5%
20%
10%
6.4%5.3%4.7%
0%
Private university
Other four-year
Two-year
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for
Education Statistics and National Alliance of Business
Students’ Readiness for College
 Among families with incomes greater than
$75,000 per year, < 60% of HS graduates
were highly qualified for admission to 4-yr
colleges.
 For families under $25,000 per year, 47%
were not even minimally qualified.
 63% of community college students take at
least one remedial course.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Education
Texas Community College
Perspective
% Change in Projected Texas
Community College Enrollments
% Change
2000-10
2010-20
2020-30
Anglo
3.8
-3.3
-1.2
AfricanAll
American Hispanic Others
21.5
48.8
50.7
8.9
36.7
47.0
6.1
40.0
43.4
Source: Texas State Data Center
Total
21.2
15.5
20.5
Preparing a 21st Century
Workforce
 Providers:
• K-16 (includes public and private 2 & 4
year colleges)
• Private vocational schools, consultants
• Industry, businesses and labor unions
 Need for continuous education and training
as workplace demands change.
Fundamental Changes
 Training for new economy credentials
• Vendor provided credentials
• Vendor driven curriculum
• Rapid changes in job expertise
 More than 300 discrete certifications
 Over 2.4 million IT certifications awarded
 Most training providers outside traditional
higher education
 and on and on…
Opportunities for
Community Colleges
 Increasing
 Demand for skilled workers
 Shortage of prepared workers
 Job demand for post-secondary education
 Productivity based on skills
 Higher educational attainment
 Enrollment in post-secondary institutions
 Decreasing job tenure
More Opportunities for
Community Colleges
 Increasing
 Education level of the workforce
 Enrollment in community colleges
 Diversity of community colleges
 Need for financial assistance
 Anywhere & Anytime Learning:
(flexible & responsive)
 Competencies vs. completions
 Employer relationships
 Increasing government recognition.
Opportunities in “Context”



Federal, state and local revenue
sources fluctuate with the economy
Increasing competition for resources
In general, Texas funding has
declined over time
Texas Funding Trends
FY1966 - FY2003
State Appropriations for Higher Education
per $1,000 of Personal Income
14
12
10
8
6
FY 1966
FY 2003
Source: Postsecondary Education, OPPORTUNITY, Dec 2002
It is Our Destiny
“We are our nation’s greatest
weapon against economic down
turn and stagnation. We change
lives, we build community, we
impact the quality of life each day
throughout our nation.”
Thank You!
Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon
Chancellor,
Dallas County Community College District
Sources of Demographic and
Occupational Data
Presentation available via email [email protected]
AARP - http://www.aarp.org/
America’s Career InfoNet http://www.acinet.org/acinet/default.asp?soccode=&
stfips=
America’s Job Bank - dni.us - http://www.ajb. /
Bureau of Labor Statistics - http://www.bls.gov/
Sources of Demographic and
Occupational Data (cont.)
Monthly Labor Review http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/welcome.htm
National Alliance of Business - http://www.nab.com/
National Center for Education Statistics http://nces.ed.gov/
National Governors Association - http://www.nga.org/
National Institute on Aging - http://www.nia.nih.gov/
Sources of Demographic and
Occupational Data (cont.)
RAND Texas - http://tx.rand.org/cgi-bin/homepage.cgi
Texas State Data Center - http://txsdc.tamu.edu/.org/
U.S. Administration on Aging - http://www.aoa.gov/
U.S. Census Bureau - http://www.census.gov/
U.S. Department of Labor - http://www.dol.gov/