Community Colleges: Preparing America’s Workforce in the 21 st Century Presented by: Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon Chancellor, Dallas County Community College District

What’s Changing?

    Demographics Nature of work Workplace Worker

Future Work

 By 2005, almost half of all workers will be employed in industries that produce or are intensive users of information technology .

Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor

Future Work

(cont.)  Baby boomers make up almost half (47%) of the workforce today.

 Young women are enrolling in college at a higher rate (70%) than young men (64%).

Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor

Future Work

(cont.)  Small businesses employ about half of the nation's private sector workforce.

Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor

Future Work

(cont.)  With more than 1600 corporate training institutions already established, “Corporate Universities” could surpass traditional universities, in number, by 2010.

Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor

75 Million Baby Boomers!

(Born 1946 – 1965)

U.S. Population Projections

330,000,000 320,000,000 310,000,000 300,000,000 290,000,000 280,000,000 270,000,000 260,000,000 250,000,000 2001 2005 2010 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Population Projections

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Projected U.S. Population - Age

40 39 38

Mean

37 36

Median

35 34 2001 2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

2010 2020

Geographic Distribution

Persons 65+

52% live in nine states:       California 3.6 million Florida New York Texas 2.8 million 2.4 million 2.1 million Pennsylvania 1.9 million Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey each with over 1 million.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

Geographic Distribution

Persons 65+ (cont.)

 Metropolitan areas  Suburbs 77.5% 50.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Regional Changes – 2025 Total Population

South and West will comprise majority of growth     Northeast Midwest

West South

17.1% 20.7%

26% 36.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Projected U.S. Population by Ethnicity % Change from 2001

6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 2005 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

2020

Caucasian Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander American Indian

% Change Ethnic Groups to 2025



Caucasian

– Slowest Growing, still largest 

Hispanic

– 2 nd Fastest Growing, Southwest 

Black

– 2 nd Slowest Growing, all regions 

Asian

– Fastest Growing, all regions 

American Indian

– 3 rd fastest growing Source: U.S. Census Bureau

The Pipeline Challenge

“ America will face a social and economic crisis unless it succeeds in promoting and taking advantage of racial and ethnic diversity.”

Business – Higher Education Forum - “Investing in People: Developing All of America’s Talent on Campus and in the Workplace.”

Employment Trends

Growth in Civilian Workforce:   1990-2000 = +17% 2000-2010 = +15% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Observations

    Largest shift will be decrease of “prime-age” (25-54) workers in the labor force.

Over 60% of workers do not have children at home but care for elderly family members.

Shift from defined-benefit to defined contribution pensions has unknown impact.

Various organizational responses to technology impact productivity.

Source: The Urban Institute

More Observations

   During 1992-99 expansion, college-educated workers accounted for 90% of growth.

Globalization of production has weakened the position of U.S. workers.

Although 1992-99 expansion increased job opportunities, many less educated workers have not reentered the job market.

Source: The Urban Institute

More Observations

(cont.) In the next 20 years . . .

   The civilian labor force will see a major change in age cohorts.

Men 16 and over will continue to decline in numbers and percentage.

Minorities and women will continue to increase dramatically in the civilian workforce.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Projected U.S. Workforce

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Occupations by Replacement Need Created by Retirees 1998–2008

(in thousands)

Total, all employees 22,205 Secretaries ......................................................…. 519 Truck drivers, heavy ......................................….. 425 Teachers, elementary school .........................….. 418 Janitors and cleaners ..................................…….. 408 Teachers, secondary school ..........................…….378

Registered nurses ......................................……... 331 Bookkeepers, accounting and auditing clerks …. 330 Teachers, college and university .................….... 195

Source: Monthly Labor Review

Replacements Needed for Retirees (cont.) Administrators, education and related fields ….. 178 Farmers, except horticultural ........................….. 175 Supervisors, construction occupations ..........….. 165 Administrators and officials,................................ 143 Real estate sales occupations .....................…….. 144 Insurance sales occupations .......................…….. 135 Industrial machinery repairers .......................….. 125 Maids and housekeeping cleaners ...............…..... 122 Private household cleaners and servants .....……. 112 Physicians ....................................................…….. 108 Financial managers .......................................….... 102 Lawyers……………………………………………………….99

Source: Monthly Labor Review

Industry Employment

2000-2010    Service Sector – Continues to dominate growth adding 20.5 million jobs (+19%).

Manufacturing down by 3%.

Health, Business, Human Services, Engineering, Management and related services account for 1 of every 2 non-farm jobs.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Occupational Employment 2000-2010

    Professional and related occupations will add 7% and 5.1%, respectively. Transportation and material moving occupations are projected to grow 15%.

Office admin support will grow more slowly.

8-10 fastest growing occupations are computer related.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Fastest Growing Occupations, 2000–2010 (National)

        Computer Software Engineer Computer Support Specialist Medical Assistants Soc. & Human Serv. Asst.

Physician Asst.

Home Health Aide Veterinary Asst.

Dental Asst.

+100% + 97% + 57% + 54% + 53% + 47% + 40% + 37% Source: Monthly Labor Review

New Workforce Skills

Highly Skilled and Unskilled Jobs as a % of the Workforce

16% 12.5% 14.1% 15.6% 14.2% 13.2% 12.7% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Professional specialties (skilled) 1988 1998 2008 Operators, laborers and fabricators (unskilled)

Source

:

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Declining Job Tenure

Median Years of Job Tenure

5.00

4.75

4.50

4.25

1996 vs 2000

4.00

Source

:

Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Workplace

 Individual   Company Focused  Rigid Non-Responsive  Insensitive to Diversity    Coordinated Flexible Customer Focused   Sensitive to Diversity  Responsive Other?_____

The 21 st Century Worker Skills Needed:     Academic (standard) Technical (standard) Social

new

International/Intercultural

new

Implications for Workforce Education/Training

 Labor shortage of skilled workers  Higher levels of education will be necessary to secure new, higher-paying jobs – 80% of jobs will require more post-secondary education  No easy answer whether supply of qualified workers will meet demand in key industry sectors

Path to the American Dream % of High School Graduates Attending College 1979-97 and projected to 2010 80%

71% 75%

70%

67% 66% 59.6%

60%

54% 58%

50% 40% 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics and National Alliance of Business

Education Required

Projected Supply and Demand of Workers with some Postsecondary Education

Demand (Jobs) Supply (Workers)

150,000 140,000 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000

1998 2008 2018 2028

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau , U.S. Census

and

National Alliance of

Business

Tidal Wave II

Total Undergraduate Enrollment in Postsecondary Education, 1995 and 2015 (in millions) 17 16 11 10 9 8 15 14 13 12

13.4 Million 2.6 Million 80% Minority 31% 35 and older

1995 2015 Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Richard A. Fry. Crossing the Great Divide. Educational Testing Services, 2000

.

National Perspective

Projected Postsecondary Enrollment Distribution by Institution, 1975 to 2015

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1975 1997 2015 6.4% 5.3%4.7% 58.1% 56.5% 55.8% 38.1% 35.5% 39.5% Private university Other four-year Two-year

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics and National Alliance of Business

35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Associate Degree Desired

% Growth in Occupations (1998 to 2008) by Type* of Training Required

* Does not include all types of training

Students’ Readiness for College

   Among families with incomes greater than $75,000 per year, < 60% of HS graduates were highly qualified for admission to 4-yr colleges.

For families under $25,000 per year, 47% were not even minimally qualified.

63% of community college students take at least one remedial course.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Education

Preparing a 21

st

Century Workforce

: Everyone’s Involved  • • • Providers: K-16 (includes public and private 2 & 4 year colleges) Private vocational schools, consultants Industry, businesses and labor unions  Need for continuous education and training as workplace demands change.

Fundamental Changes

 Training for new economy credentials • • Vendor provided credentials Vendor driven curriculum • Rapid changes in job expertise     More than 300 discrete certifications Over 2.4 million IT certifications awarded Most training providers outside traditional higher education and on and on…

Opportunities for Community Colleges 

Increasing

  Demand for skilled workers Shortage of prepared workers     Job demand for post-secondary education Productivity based on skills Higher educational attainment Enrollment in post-secondary institutions  Decreasing job tenure

More Opportunities for Community Colleges     

Increasing

 Education level of the workforce    Enrollment in community colleges Diversity of community colleges Need for financial assistance Anywhere & Anytime Learning: ( flexible & responsive) Competencies vs. completions Employer relationships Increasing government recognition .

So, What Now Coach?

 Local Response  Local Impact  Regional Response  Regional Impact  National Response  National Impact

So, What Now Coach?

     We accept the challenges We take advantage of the opportunities We plan toward our future We will make a difference We will lead America into the 21 st Century!

You are all Community College Super Heroes - Everyday!

“We are our nation’s greatest weapon against economic down turn and stagnation. We build individuals, we build community, we impact the quality of life throughout our nation.”

Thank You!

Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon Chancellor, Dallas County Community College District [email protected]

Sources of Demographic and Occupational Data

AARP http://www.aarp.org/ America’s Career InfoNet http://www.acinet.org/acinet/default.asp?soccode=& stfips = America’s Job Bank dni.us http://www.ajb. / Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/ Hudson Institute http://www.hudson.org/

Sources of Demographic and Occupational Data

(cont.) Monthly Labor Review http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/welcome.htm

National Alliance of Business http://www.nab.com/ National Center for Education Statistics http://nces.ed.gov/ National Governors Association http://www.nga.org/ National Institute on Aging http://www.nia.nih.gov/

Sources of Demographic and Occupational Data

(cont.) Urban Institute http://www.urban.org/ U.S. Administration on Aging http://www.aoa.gov/ U.S. Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/ U.S. Department of Labor http://www.dol.gov/