Transcript Markets - NeighborWorks America

Christopher Herbert, Managing Director
Housing and Community Innovations for an Aging America
NeighborWorks Training Institute
Kansas City, MO
May 6, 2015
© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
Housing as a Lynchpin of Well-Being
Critical Roles
Challenges
Financial Security
• High Housing Cost Burdens
• Greater Mortgage Debt
Physical Security
• Shortage of Accessible Units
• Trade-off with Spending on
Housing, Food and Health Care
Social
Connections
• Deficiencies in Housing Options,
Transportation and Pedestrian
Infrastructure, Increasing Risk of
Isolation
Linkages to Longterm Supports and
Services
• Disconnects Between Housing
Programs and Health Care System
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
The Older Population Is on Track to Increase
Dramatically
Population by Age Group (Millions)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
50–64
1990
80 and Over
65–79
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses and 2012 National Population Projections (middle series).
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
Incomes for All Household Types Drop with Age,
Leaving High Shares with Very Low Incomes
Median Household Income by Age Group (Thousands of dollars)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
50–64
80 and Over
65–79
Age
White
Asian/
Other
Hispanic
Black
Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, 2013 Current Population Survey.
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
Aging Brings Increasing Risks of Disability and Isolation
Share Facing Difficulty by Age Group (Percent)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Cognitive
Self-Care
Independent Living
Mobility
Live Alone
Type of Difficulty
50–64
65–79
80 and Over
Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey.
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
A Large Majority of Older Households are
Homeowners, But Have Fallen Among 50–64 Year Olds
Homeownership Rate by Age Group (Percent)
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
50–64
80 and Over
65–79
2005
2013
Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Surveys.
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
Households Owning Their Homes Outright Are Much
Less Likely to Be Cost Burdened
Share of Households by Age Group (Percent)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
50–64
65–79
Renters
80 and
Over
50–64
80 and
Over
65–79
Owners with Mortgages
Moderately Burdened
50–64
65–79
80 and
Over
Owners without Mortgages
Severely Burdened
Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey.
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
Low-Income Households with Housing Cost Burdens Have
Much Less to Spend on Other Critical Needs
Average Monthly Spending by Households Age 50+ in the Lowest Expenditure Quartile (Dollars)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
-
Food
Not Burdened
Health Care
Transportation
Moderately Burdened
Retirement
Severely Burdened
Source: JCHS tabulations of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012 Consumer Expenditure Survey.
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
Households 65 and Over Are Carrying Much More
Mortgage Debt into Their Retirement Years
Share of Owners with Mortgage Debt by Age
Group (Percent)
45
Average Loan-to-Value Ratio for Owners with
Mortgages by Age Group (Percent)
50
40
45
35
30
40
25
35
20
15
30
10
25
5
0
20
1992
1998
2004
2007
2010
1992
1998
2004
2007
2010
Source: JCHS tabulations of Federal Reserve Board, Surveys of Consumer Finances.
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
Even Excluding Home Equity, Owners Have
Substantially More Wealth than Renters
Distribution of Net Wealth among Households Aged 50 and Over (Dollars)
Percentile
10th
25th
Median
75th
90th
Total Wealth
38,100
104,500
267,100
694,600
1,888,700
Home Equity
14,000
50,000
111,000
240,000
450,000
Other Assets
4,600
22,900
117,000
496,500
1,491,800
-1,800
60
6,100
27,700
155,700
Owner
Renter
Total Wealth
Notes: Total net wealth includes both financial and nonfinancial assets. Percentiles for each category of wealth are calculated separately; as a
result, percentile values for the components of homeowner wealth do not sum up to total homeowner wealth within each percentile.
Source: JCHS tabulations of Federal Reserve Board, 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances.
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
Rapid Growth in Older Eligible Renters Will Put Even
More Pressure on Housing Assistance Programs
Very Low-Income Renter Households Aged 62 and Over (Millions)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2003
2007
Assisted
2011
Not Assisted
2020
2030
Projected
Sources: JCHS tabulations of US Department of Housing and Urban Development, Worst Case Needs Reports to Congress, and JCHS 2013
Household Projections.
© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
A Large Majority of Older Households Live in
Single-Family Detached Housing
Distribution of Households 50 and Over by Structure Type
7%
9%
3%
Single Family Detached
Single Family Attached
Multifamily, 2-4 units
Multifamily, 5-9 units
Multifamily, 10+ units
Manufactured Home
5%
5%
71%
Source: JCHS tabulations of US Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2011 American Housing Survey.
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
Most Older Households Have Lived in the Same Homes
for More than a Decade
Share of Households by Age Group (Percent)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
50–64
80 and Over
65–79
Years in Current Home
Less than 5
5–9
10–19
20 or More
Source: JCHS tabulations of US Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2011 American Housing Survey.
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
Single-Floor Living is The Most Common
Accessibility Feature
Share of Housing Units (Percent)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Single-Floor
Living
Accessible
Electrical
Controls
No-Step Entry Lever-Style
Handles on
Doors and
Faucets
Extra-Wide
Hallways and
Doors
Notes: Single-floor living units have both a bedroom and bath on the entry level.
Source: JCHS tabulations of US Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2011 American Housing Survey.
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
But Very Few Homes Have at Least Three
Accessibility Features
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Share of Units (Percent)
At least 1
2 or more
3 or more
4 or more
5
Number of Accessibility Features
Notes: Accessibility features specifically include no-step entry, single-floor living, extra-wide hallways and doors, accessible electrical controls and switches,
and lever-style handles on doors and faucets.
Source: JCHS tabulations of US Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2011 American Housing Survey.
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
By Age 80, Adults Are Far More Likely to Have Disabilities
than to Live in Accessible Homes
70
Shares of Housing Units and Population with Disabilities by Age Group (Percent)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
50–64
80 and Over
65–79
Housing Units with 3 or More Accessibility Features
Population Reporting Disabilities
Source: JCHS tabulations of US Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2011 American Housing Survey, and US Census Bureau, 2012
American Community Survey.
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
Policies and Programs to Promote Accessibility
• Visitability Ordinances: Incentives or mandates for
accessibility features in new housing
• Tax Incentives: Tax credits for homeowners or
builders adding accessibility features
• Grants or Low-Interest Loans: Federal, state, and
local funds to assist homeowners in modifying their
homes (including through Medicaid)
• Volunteer Assistance: Efforts such as Rebuilding
Together to mobilize volunteers and donations
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
With High Share of Older Households in CarDependent Suburbs and Non-Metro Areas, Aging
Will Bring Heightened Risk of Isolation
Share of Persons (Percent)
Share of Households Age 50+
50%
30
25
25%
Central
City
Suburb
Non-Metro
25%
20
15
10
5
0
Age 80+ Without Age 50+ Miss
Car
Activities Due to
Limits on Driving
Source: JCHS tabulations of US Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2009 and 2011 American Housing Survey.
AARP Research and Strategic Analysis, “Transportation Use and Options of Midlife and Older Adults,” 2010.
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
Approaches to Enhance Connectivity
• Services supporting aging in community: senior
centers, Area Agencies on Aging, meals delivery,
home care, adult day care, etc.
• Housing options close to commercial centers
and transit
• Accessibility of transit, transit alternatives
• Improved pedestrian experience
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
Trends in Long-term Services and Supports
• Vast majority of older households with
disabilities live in the community
• Number of adults in institutional settings has
declined 20% over 2000-2010
• Two-thirds rely exclusively on family members
for long-term care and only 9% do not rely on
family at all—but there will be fewer family
members to turn to in the future
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
Cost of Long-Term Services and Supports Are
Quite High—Out of Reach for Most Renters
$4,000
Median Monthly Cost
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
Adult Day Care
Homemaker
Home Health
Aide
Assisted Living
Sources: 2014 Genworth Cost of Care Survey.
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
Expanding Affordable Housing with Long-Term
Supportive Services
• Expansion of HUD Programs to Provide Housing
With Supportive Services
• Non-profit Models Linking Long-Term Services
to Assisted Housing Developments
• Medicaid Support for Aging in Place
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
In 1990, Only a Few Counties had Large
Concentrations of Older Adults
Share of County Population
Aged 50 and Over in 1990
(Percent)
Under 25
25–39
40 and Over
Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, 1990 Decennial Census.
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE
By 2010, Communities Across the Country Had High
Concentrations of Older Residents
Share of County Population
Aged 50 and Over (Percent)
Under 25
25–39
40 and Over
Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census.
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© PRESIDENT AND FELLOW S OF HARVARD COLLEGE