Transcript Folie 1

MED-CSP
NREA
Study Project
MED-CSP
Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region
Project for the Research & Development Programme of the German
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear
Safety (BMU)
MED-CSP
Bringing Renewable Energies to Work
 Renewable Energy Resource Assessment
 Power Demand Assessment
 Sustainable National Energy Scenarios
 National Guidelines to Initiate and Follow that Path
 Data Base for Decision Making
MED-CSP
Countries analysed within
the MED-CSP Study and total EU-MENA Region
Southern Europe
Western Asia
Arabian Peninsula
North Africa
MED-CSP
Sustainability  Dynamic Stability
“development that meets the needs of the present generation
without compromising the ability of future generations to meet
their own needs” /Brundtland 1987/
What we need:
What we have:
Environmental Sustainability
Environmental Damages
Economical Sustainability
Increasing Subsidies
Social Sustainability
Increasing Conflicts
Institutional Sustainability
Insufficient Policies
MED-CSP
Environmental Sustainability Challenge: Climate Change
9
8
7
t CO2/capita
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
World
World wide obligation
in 2050
(proposed by
WBGU, 2003)
Spain
Portugal
Morocco
Spain, Portugal
+ Morocco
1990
2002
Obligation 2008-2012 (EU)
Obligation Industrialized Countries 2020 (Proposal WBGU, 2003)
EU15
MED-CSP
Institutional Sustainability Challenge:
Greenhouse gas emissions until 2002 and projections until
2010 indicate Insufficient Policies even in the EU 15
1990 GHG Emissions = 100
108
Business as
usual
106
104
with existing
policies
102
2002
100
with additional
policies
98
Kyoto target
path
96
94
92
90
1990
1995
2000
Year
2005
2010
MED-CSP
Social Sustainability Challenge:
Growing Electricity Demand in MENA
4500
Historical Data
Scenario Closing the
Gap / High Efficiency
Gross Electricity Consumption TWh/a
4000
Second Slowdown:
Demand Stabilisation
3500
3000
2500
2000
First Slowdown:
Efficiency Gains
& Liberalisation
1500
1000
500
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Turkey
Spain
Portugal
Malta
Italy
Greece
Tunisia
Morocco
Libya
Egypt
Algeria
Yemen
UAE
Syria
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Oman
Lebanon
Kuwait
Jordan
Israel
Iraq
Iran
Cyprus
Bahrain
MED-CSP
Driving Force Population Growth
900
700
600
North Africa
Western Asia
Arabian Peninsula
Southern Europe
500
400
300
200
100
50
20
45
20
35
40
20
20
30
20
25
20
20
20
15
20
10
20
05
20
00
0
20
Year
Source: United Nations
Intermediate Growth
Scenario /FAO 2004/
900
800
Population [millions]
Population [million]
800
700
600
500
Urban
Rural
400
300
200
100
0
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
Year
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
MED-CSP
Driving Forces: Growth of Economy.
Closing the Gap of per Capita GDP with USA by 2050 by 50%
Southern Europe (CG/HE)
North Africa (CG/HE)
Cyprus
Egypt
Greece
Libya
Malta
Tunesia
Italy
Algeria
Spain
Morocco
Portugal
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
Average GDP Growth Rates 2003 - 2050 [%/cap/y]
Bahrain
Iraq
Yemen
Turkey
UAE
Syria
Saudi-Arabia
Lebanon
Qatar
Jordan
Kuwait
Israel
Oman
2
3
4
4
5
6
7
Arabian Peninsula (CG/HE)
Iran
1
3
Average GDP Growth Rate 2003 - 2050 [%/cap/y]
Western Asia (CG/HE)
0
2
5
6
Average GDP Growth Rate 2003 - 2050 [%/cap/y]
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Average GDP Growth Rate 2003 - 2050 [%/cap/y]
7
MED-CSP
Driving Force Economic Growth:
Correlation and Extrapolation of Total Final Electricity
Consumption per capita and GDP per capita for a
Sample of 25 (150) Countries
Electricity/Capita [kWh/cap]
100000
10000
2040
2020
1000
2000
1980
100
1960
10
1
1
10
GDP/Capita [1000 US$ 1996 PPP]
100
MED-CSP
Electricity Demand [kWh/capita/y]
Per Capita Power Consumption in EU-MENA in the MED-CSP Scenario
8000
7000
6000
North Africa
5000
Western Asia
4000
Arabian Peninsula
3000
2000
1000
0
00 005 010 015 020 025 030 035 040 045 050
0
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Year
Southern European
Countries
MED-CSP
Social Sustainability Challenge:
Growing Freshwater Demand in the MENA countries
600
Freshwater Demand [Bm³/y]
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Iran
Iraq
Syria
Turkey
Lebanon
Jordan
Israel
Kuwait
Yemen
UAE
Bahrain
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Oman
Morocco
Libya
Tunisia
Egypt
Algeria
MED-CSP
Social Sustainability Challenge:
Agriculture vs. Industrial Development in MENA
Freshwater Demand [billion
m³/y]
Water Demand in MENA
600
600.0
500
500.0
400
400.0
300
300.0
200
200.0
100
100.0
0
0.0
00 005 010 015 020 025 030 035 040 045 050
0
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Year
Agricultural
Domestic
Industrial
Sustainable Water
growths with GDP
grows with population
Water Demand in Egypt
180
180.00
160
160.00
140
140.00
120
120.00
100.00
Industrial
Domestic
80.00
60
Agricultural
40.00
20
20.00
0
0.00
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
Population in Egypt
140
120
100
80
Urban
Rural
60
40
20
50
20
45
20
40
0
20
30
35
20
20
25
30
20
20
20
20
20
15
15
20
20
10
10
20
20
05
05
20
20
00
00
20
20
20
40
60.00
Sustainable
Water
25
80
20
100
Population [millions]
Water Demand [billion m³/y]
MED-CSP
MED-CSP
Social & Environmental Sustainability Challenge:
Growing Freshwater Deficits
Groundw ater w ithdraw als as percentage of safe yield
S a udi A ra bia
14 56 %
Kuwa it
12 75%
Qatar
G a za
B a hra in
J o rda n
Yemen
S yria
UA E
Oman
A lge ria
Source: Saghiri 2003
T unis ia
M o ro c c o
C yprus
0%
50 %
10 0 %
150 %
200%
2 50 %
300%
3 50 %
400%
MED-CSP
Economic Sustainability Challenge: Cost of
Electricity from Nuclear Energy, Coal & Gas
additional
external
societal
cost
cost of CO2sequestration
cent/kWh
desirable
Dollars per cubic meter
MED-CSP
Economic Sustainability Challenge:
Water pricing in the MENA Region
/Saghir 2003/
Dollars per cubic meter
a) Irrigation Sector
b) Municipal Sector
desirable long term cost level
MED-CSP
Economic Sustainability Challenge:
MED-CSP
Economic Sustainability Challenge:
Coal Price Index in $/ton
06.2001
Source: globalCOAL
06.2002
06.2003
06.2004
MED-CSP
Economic Sustainability Challenge:
Uranium Price Index in $/lb
Source: cameco
MED-CSP
Guidelines for Sustainability in the Energy Sector.
satisfied
 Equality of access
no
 Conservation of resources
no
 Compatibility with environment, climate and health
no
 Social compatibility
ltd.
 Low risk and high error tolerance
ltd.
 Comprehensive economic efficiency
no
 Meet the need of supply at any time
ltd.
 International co-operation
ltd.
Source: BMU
MED-CSP
Main Results of the MED-CSP Demand Assessment
 The present energy system is not sustainable and will lead to a
critical situation in terms of economical, social and environmental
stability.
 The demand for energy will grow by three times until 2050, water
demand will almost double in the EU-MENA region.
 Fossil and nuclear energy sources have triggered economic
development in the North Western Hemisphere, but do not have the
capacity to do the same for the rest of the world.
MED-CSP
MED-CSP Team
German Aerospace Center (DLR)
Dr. Franz Trieb, Dr. Christoph Schillings, Stefan Kronshage, Dr. Uwe Klann, Dr. Peter
Viebahn, Nadine May, Regina Wilde, Christian Paul, Stuttgart, Germany
National Energy Research Center (NERC)
Eng. Malek Kabariti, Amman, Jordan
Centre National pour la Recherche Scientifique et Technique (CNRST)
Prof. Dr. Abdelaziz Bennouna, Rabat, Morocco
Nokraschy Engineering GmbH (NE)
Dr. Ing. Hani El Nokraschy, Holm, Germany
New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA)
Ms. Laila Georgy Yussef, Cairo, Egypt
New Energy Algeria (NEAL)
Tewfik Hasni, Alger, Algeria
Internationales Forschungszentrum für Erneuerbare Energien e.V. (IFEED)
Dr. Nasir El Bassam, Braunschweig, Germany
Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA)
Honorat Satoguina, Hamburg, Germany
MED-CSP
Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region
WP0: Introduction
WP1: Sustainability Goals
WP2: Renewable Energy Technologies
WP3: Renewable Energy Resources
WP4: Demand Side Analysis
WP5: Scenario for Energy and Water Security
WP6: Socio-Economical Impacts
WP7: Environmental Impacts
WP8: Policy Instruments
WP9: Bibliography
WP10: Annex with Country Data
Downloads at: http://www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp