Transcript Climate change and energy

INTRODUCING
SOLUTIONS
Ways forward to true prosperity
Arthur Dahl
IEF/EBBF Annual Conference
20 September 2008
http://www.bcca.org/ief and http://www.ebbf.org
There is a conflict between
growth and sustainability.
Where are we going?
Future business climate
(we don't like to hear bad news)
The Cooper-Rogoff Debate on US current account
deficit, Davos, January 2006
WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007
• Larry Summers: Global imbalances are one of the most
important threats to global prosperity
• Richard Cooper: US current account deficit ($660b in 2004) is
natural and sustainable because US is attractive to
investment
• Ken Rogoff: US deficit mirrors government borrowing =
beginning of the end. US eating up 70% of global net savings.
US housing slump could cause drop in overvalued US$ of up
to 40% and loss of its role as global reserve currency,
precipitating a financial market crisis with serious impact on
inflexible economies of Europe and Japan
The economy is irrational
A press view of what is ahead
“On current trends, ...humanity will need twice as
much energy as it uses today within 35 years....
Produce too little energy, say the economists,
and there will be price hikes and a financial
crash unlike any the world has ever known, with
possible resource wars, depression and famine.
Produce the wrong sort of energy, say the
climate scientists, and we will have more
droughts, floods, rising seas and worldwide
economic disaster with runaway global warming.
John Vidal in The Guardian Weekly, 9-15 February 2007, Energy supplement, p. 3
We shall probably do both at the same tine
Scenarios
plausible futures
• Business as usual in a materialistic
society ignoring the future
• Retreating to a fortress world of old
values
• Making a transition to sustainability
Scenarios from World 3
(Meadows et al. (1992) Beyond the Limits)
Business as usual
Transition 1995
Transition 2015
COLLAPSE
OF CIVILIZATION?
Denial, Depression or Action?
Do we have a choice?
Can we go and hide on a remote island?
End of the growth paradigm
• What is more realistic?
• Exponential growth?
• The normal distribution, bell-shaped
curve, or S curve of rate of change?
• Economic growth has depended on
population growth, energy growth,
resource growth and technological
innovation
• The first three all end in this century
• All that is left is our brains and heart
Welcome to the new
sustainability paradigm
• balance
• optimal size
• subsidiarity
• efficiency
• de-materialization
• closed systems
Redefining Prosperity
Man's merit lieth in service and virtue and not in
the pageantry of wealth and riches. Take heed that
your words be purged from idle fancies and worldly
desires and your deeds be cleansed from
craftiness and suspicion.
Dissipate not the wealth of your precious lives in
the pursuit of evil and corrupt affection, nor let
your endeavours be spent in promoting your
personal interest. Be generous in your days of
plenty, and be patient in the hour of loss.... Guard
against idleness and sloth, and cling unto that
which profiteth mankind, whether young or old,
whether high or low.
Combining material and
spiritual civilization
...although material civilization is one of
the means for the progress of the
world of mankind, yet until it becomes
combined with Divine civilization, the
desired result, which is the felicity of
mankind, will not be attained....
Material civilization is like the body. No
matter how infinitely graceful, elegant and
beautiful it may be, it is dead.
Purpose of the
development of society
That purpose must be sought in
spiritual dimensions of life and
motivation that transcend a
constantly changing economic
landscape and an artificially imposed
division of human societies into
"developed" and "developing".
(Bahá'í International Community, The Prosperity of Humankind)
The real purpose of
development
the real purpose of development...
is laying foundations for a new social
order that can cultivate the limitless
potentialities latent in human
consciousness.
(Bahá'í International Community, The Prosperity of Humankind)
not no growth, but a new
kind of growth
Sustainability
is a dynamic concept
• Not a goal to be reached but a balance
to be maintained in space and in time
• Involving complex interactions in the
whole system that maintains life on
Earth (the environmental component)
• Including the human system (the social
and economic components)
• That must respect planetary limits
To achieve sustainability, we must...
• redefine our goal and purpose
• understand the evolutionary processes
pushing globalization, including
population growth and scientific and
technological development
• identify the major driving forces behind
unsustainable trends
• define and implement the responses
necessary to put us on sustainable
trajectories
Building a New World Order:
the alternative scenario
"All men have been created to
carry forward an everadvancing civilization."
(Bahá'u'lláh, Gleanings from the Writings of
Bahá'u'lláh)
Design Criteria for World Order
(based on Shoghi Effendi, The World Order of Baha'u'llah)
1
Central principle: The unity of the human
race
Form: world commonwealth
Characteristics:
- all nations, races, creeds and classes
closely and permanently united
- autonomy of its state members
safeguarded
- personal freedom and initiative of the
Design Criteria for World Order
2
Structure:
World legislature:
- members will be trustees of the whole of
mankind
- control the entire resources of all the
component nations
- enact such laws as shall be required to
regulate the life, satisfy the needs and adjust
the relationships of all races and peoples
World executive to safeguard the organic unity
of the whole commonwealth
World tribunal to adjudicate all disputes
Design Criteria for World Order
3
A mechanism of world intercommunication:
- embracing the whole planet
- freed from national hindrances and
restrictions
- functioning with marvellous swiftness and
perfect regularity.
Design Criteria for World Order
4
The economic resources of the world will be
organized, its sources of raw materials will be
tapped and fully utilized, its markets will be
coordinated and developed, and the distribution
of its products will be equitably regulated.
(Shoghi Effendi, The World Order of Bahá'u'lláh, p. 203-204)
Design Criteria for World Order
5
- causes of religious strife permanently
removed
- economic barriers and restrictions completely
abolished
- inordinate distinction between classes
obliterated
- destitution and gross accumulation of
ownership will disappear.
Design Criteria for World Order
6
The enormous energy dissipated and wasted
on war, whether economic or political, will be
consecrated to:
- extend the range of human inventions and
technical development
- increase the productivity of mankind
- extend scientific research
- exterminate disease
- raise the standard of physical health
- prolong human life
Design Criteria for World Order
7
- sharpen and refine the human brain
- exploit the unused and unsuspected
resources of the planet
- further any other agency that can stimulate
the intellectual, the moral, and spiritual life of
the entire human race.
Design Criteria for World Order
8
A world federal system ruling the whole earth
- exercising unchallengeable authority over its
unimaginably vast resources
- blending and embodying the ideals of both
the East and the West
- liberated from the curse of war and its
miseries
- bent on the exploitation of all the available
sources of energy on the surface of the planet
Design Criteria for World Order
9
- a system in which Force is made the servant
of Justice
- whose life is sustained by its universal
recognition of one God and by its allegiance to
one common Revelation
such is the goal towards which humanity,
impelled by the unifying forces of life, is
moving.
(based on Shoghi Effendi, The World Order of Bahá'u'lláh, p. 203204)
How do we get
from here to there?
• Not central planning (the ends
justified the means, but...)
• Random evolution? (survival of the
strongest rather than the fittest)
• Establishing the right ground rules
and letting the system evolve in all
its diversity
ENGINEERING PLAN
FOR A
SUSTAINABLE
GLOBAL SYSTEM
Sustainability
means addressing the
Ethical Challenge
egotism versus altruism
me first versus all together
Sustainable development is at the
interface of science and ethics
• We need to redefine "development"(=
growth for economists) within a more
universal framework including society,
culture, science and spirituality
• What is our purpose as individuals and
as a society?
• What are some of the ethical principles
that should guide society towards
sustainable development?
What rules/values will
enhance integration?
• To evolve more efficient and balanced
systems, we need to increase integration in
diversity at multiple levels of organization
• How do we do this?
• The "technological fix" lies in "human
engineering": education, investment in
human capital, development of human
potential, sustainability across generations
• This requires ethics/values in balance with
science
The importance of values
• Ethics and values are what determine
how humans relate to each other
• They are the social equivalent of DNA,
encoding the information through which
society is structured
• The most effective way to transform
society is to change its values
• What values can provide the ground
rules for sustainability?
(based on proposals by the Baha'i International Community)
THE ROLE OF SPIRITUAL
PRINCIPLE
There are spiritual principles, or what
some call human values, by which solutions
can be found for every social problem....
Leaders of governments and all in authority
would be well served in their efforts to solve
problems if they would first seek to identify
the principles involved and then be guided
by them.
(Universal House of Justice, The Promise of World Peace)
HOW DOES NATURE DO IT?
Sustainability in the
coral reef ecosystem:
• Efficient solar energy and materials capture
by generating large surface area
• Efficient energy transfers within system,
symbioses
• Little waste, effective recycling
• High complexity and integration
• Maximizes total productivity, not just most
productive
ENVIRONMENTAL
DESIGN SPECIFICATIONS
Sustainability – an ethical concept
- We are trustees or stewards of the planet's
resources and biodiversity. We must:
- ensure sustainability and equity of resource use
into distant future
- consider the environmental consequences of
development activities
- temper our actions with moderation and humility
- value nature in more than economic terms
- understand the natural world and its role in
humanity's collective development both material
and spiritual
(based on Bahá'í International Community, Valuing Spirituality in Development. 1998)
Sustainability
a fundamental responsibility
•Sustainable environmental
management is not a discretionary
commitment we can weigh against
other competing interests
•It is a fundamental responsibility
that must be shouldered, a prerequisite for spiritual development
as well as our physical survival.
(based on Bahá'í International Community, Valuing Spirituality in Development. A concept paper written for the World Faiths and
Development Dialogue, Lambeth Palace, London, 18-19 February 1998)
Preserving the Ecological Balance
For the sustainable economic and social
development of all countries, agriculture and
the preservation of the ecological balance of
the world are fundamental.
Moderation in Material Civilization
The civilization, so often vaunted by
the learned exponents of arts and
sciences, will, if allowed to overleap
the bounds of moderation, bring great
evil upon men.... The day is
approaching when its flame will devour
the cities...
Bahá'u'lláh (1817-1892)
Living within environmental
limits
is possible
To maintain the planet's ecological balance, we must:
- reduce human impacts to a level appropriate to the
vulnerability and resilience of the systems
- restore damaged systems to the level necessary to
maintain natural and human ecosystem services
- allow population growth and development only to the
extent that system improvements extend the carrying
capacity of the planetary system
The Promise of Renewable Resources
To be sustainable long into the future,
the economy must be based on
renewable resources (agriculture,
forests, fisheries, bio-industries), closed
materials cycles and integrated product
lifecycles
SOCIAL
DESIGN SPECIFICATIONS
For social sustainability
In increasingly diverse communities,
how do we go from prejudice and
withdrawal to open integration and
unity?
Community
How do we create unity in
diversity?
What is the best size for a
community?
What does the information
revolution mean for community life
and organization?
JUSTICE AND EQUITY
- It is unjust to sacrifice the well-being of most
people -- and even of the planet itself -- to the
advantages which technological breakthroughs
can make available to privileged minorities
- Only development programmes that are
perceived by the masses of humanity as
meeting their needs and as being just and
equitable in objective can hope to engage their
commitment, upon which implementation
depends
(based on Baha'i International Community, Prosperity of Humankind)
Solidarity and Altruism
We should consider every human
being as a trust of the whole.
The goal of wealth creation should
be to make everyone wealthy.
Voluntary giving is more
meaningful and effective than
forced redistribution.
Cooperation and
Reciprocity
Cooperation and reciprocity are
essential properties of all natural
and human systems, increasing in
more highly evolved and complex
systems
Trustworthiness
Trust is the basis for all economic and social
interaction
Public opinion surveys show little trust in
politicians and business
Would you sign an agreement with someone
you did not trust?
Spiritual traditions have always taught
Contentment – moderate lifestyles
...be content with little, and be freed from
all inordinate desire.
(Bahá'u'lláh)
What does this imply for the consumer society?
ECONOMIC
DESIGN SPECIFICATIONS
Sustainability requires rethinking economics
- The present economic system is unsustainable
and not meeting human needs
- 50 years of economic development, despite
some progress, has failed to meet is objectives
- The global economic system lacks global
governance
- It is not the mechanisms of economics that are
at fault, but its values
Questions
• Is eating your only purpose in life?
• Should profit be the only purpose of
business?
• Should you try to keep growing forever?
• Should growth be the main goal of
businesses and economies?
The true purpose of economics
Economics has ignored humanity's broader
social and spiritual needs, resulting in:
- Corrosive materialism among the wealthy
- Persistent poverty for masses of the
world's peoples
Economic systems should give the peoples
and institutions of the world the means to
achieve the real purpose of development:
the cultivation of the limitless potentialities
in human consciousness.
(adapted from Bahá'í International Community, Valuing Spirituality in Development,
1998)
The present economic system
cannot deal with sustainability
- Economic thinking is challenged by the
environmental crisis to change:
- Insisting that there is no limit to nature's
capacity to fulfil any demand made on it
- Attaching absolute value to growth, to
acquisition, and to the satisfaction of people's
wants
- Making economic decisions at the national
level when most of the major challenges are
global
We need new economic models that
- further a dynamic, just and thriving
social order
- are strongly altruistic and cooperative
in nature
- provide meaningful employment
- help to eradicate poverty in the world
They should give the right signals for
challenges like climate change,
sustainability and the development of
human potential (not just GDP)
Wealth creation
Wealth is praiseworthy in the highest degree, if it is
acquired by an individual's own efforts... in
commerce, agriculture, art and industry, and if it be
expended for philanthropic purposes. Above all, if a
judicious and resourceful individual should initiate
measures which would universally enrich the
masses of the people, there could be no
undertaking greater than this,... for such a
benefactor would supply the needs and insure the
comfort and well-being of a great multitude. Wealth
is most commendable, provided the entire
population is wealthy.
('Abdu'l-Bahá, The Secret of Divine Civilization)
Sustainability requires a
new entrepreneurship
We are in the middle of a major transformation in society
The past is not a good predictor of the future
Change is inevitable, and the rate of change is accelerating,
requiring adaptive management
Globalization cannot be stopped, but it can be transformed
Institution building for international governance will continue
We can consciously work for change, or wait for catastrophe
to force us to change
There will be new forms of wealth creation and business
Creativity, innovation and adaptive management will be
increasingly necessary for success
Values and ethics will be fundamental to social and
economic transformation
The goal:
an organically
united world
The multiple challenges of
sustainability are pushing nations to
work together in their collective
interest
The years ahead will be difficult,
but there is reason for hope