Transcript 슬라이드 1

Population Age Structures and
National Transfer Accounts
in Korea
Chong-Bum An and Eul-Sik Gim
Sungkyunkwan University,
Seoul, Korea
I. Introduction
• Apply the NTA to Korea
• Compare the results to those of Taiwan and the United
States
Lee, R., A. Mason, and T. Miller (2003), From Transfers to Individual
Responsibility: Implications for Savings and Capital Accumulation in
Taiwan and the United States, Scandinavian Journal of Economics 105(3):
339-357.
- Age-profile of production and consumption
- Asset reallocations
- Public and private transfers
II. Population Aging,
Intergenerational Transfers and
Savings in Korea
1. Population Aging
• Demographic transition in Korea is dramatic.
- Total fertility ratio decreases from 4.53 in 1970 to 1.19 in
2003.
- Life expectancy increases from the age of 62.3 in 1971 to
77.9 in 2005, and projected to 83.3 in 2050.
 very rapid population aging.
- Old age population is 7.2% in 2000 (aging society),
to 14.3% in 2018 (aged society)
to 20.8% in 2026 (post-aged society).
2. Intergenerational Transfers
• Familial Support and Family Arrangements
– ratio of parents living together with children
• 54.7% in 1994 to 42.7% in 2002
– ratio of familial support for parents
• 62.1% in 1994 to 53.3% in 2002.
– ratio of households in which both adult children
and old parents live together
• 20.6% in 1975 to 9.4% in 2000.
• Social Security System
• Social insurances
– National Pension Scheme (introduced in 1988)
– National Health Insurance Scheme (introduced in 1977, expanded to all
citizens in 1989),
– Employment Insurance (introduced in 1995)
– Industrial Accident Compensation Insurance (introduced in 1964).
• Public assistances
– National Basic Livelihood Security System (introduced in 1961, expanded to
people under minimum cost of living in 2000),
– medical aid, veterans’ relief, and disaster relief.
• Social welfare services
– protect the disabled, the aged, children, women, and mentally handicapped, etc.
• three occupational pension insurances
– government employees pension (introduced 1960)
– military pension (separated from government employees pension in 1963)
– teachers pension (introduced in 1973).
• Education
– Total public education expenditures
• 4.60% of GDP in 1977 to 7.1% in 2000.
• government’s burden
– 2.44% in 1977 to 4.3% in 2000
• private sector’s burden
– 2.16% in 1977 to 2.8% in 2000
– Private education expenditures (elementary, secondary)
• 0.7% in 1977 to 2.9% in 2000.
3. Savings
• total savings
– 10% in 1960s to 40.4% in 1988
– decreases to 34.9% in 2004.
• Public sector still shows high savings rate after
financial crisis
• corporations increases savings.
• But individuals decreases savings.
III. National Transfer Flow
Accounts in Korea
1. Data Sources
• records of public institutions
– National Pension Statistical Yearbook
– National Health Insurance Statistical Yearbook
• income and expenditure surveys
– National Survey of Household Income and Expenditure
(NSHIE)
– Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS)
– Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES).
2. National Accounts and National
Transfer Accounts
• National Disposable Income and its Appropriation Account (NDIAA)
• Capital Transaction Account (CTA)
• Financial Transactions Account (FTA)
• External Transactions Account (ETA)
• Roe E represents the conversion of National Accounts (NA) into National
Transfer Flow Accounts (NTFA)
• Income and Capital Accounts by Institutional Sectors and corresponding
NTFA.
• General government in National Accounts by Institutional Sectors is
classified into public sector.
• And non-financial corporations, financial corporations, and individuals are
classified into private sector.
3. Methods and Results
NTFA
Estimation methods
Data Sources
Education, private
regress on enrollment and age
NSHIE
Health, private
regress on age
NSHIE
Others, private
Equivalence scale or regress on age
NSHIE
Education, public
age- & education level- specific enrollment rate
OECD education
Health, Public
age distribution of benefits
NHISY
Others, public
per capita basis
NA
Compensation of employees
wage of wage workers
KLIPS
Entrepreneurial income
income of non-wage workers
KLIPS
asset income, private
net property income of households
NSHIE
savings, private
changes in net assets of households
HIES
asset income &
financial asset accumulation, public
age distribution of tax burden
NA
Capital and
land accumulation, public
age distribution of population
NA
Social insurance & tax
generational accounting
Auerbach, Chun
Inter-household transfers
private subsidy and remittance of households
NSHIE
Intra-household transfers
net transfers = consumption - disposable income
KLIPS
Bequests
net assets of households and life table
NSHIE
Private Consumption
Education Private
Health Private
Others Private
8000
7000
Won Thousands
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
Age
Other Consumption
Equivalence
Regres s ion
10000
9000
8000
Won Thousands
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
Age
Public Consumption
Education
Health
Others
1600
1400
Won Thousands
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
Age
Labor Income
Labor Income
Compensation of Employ ees
Entrepreneurial Income
14000
12000
Won Thousands
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
Age
Asset Income Private
As s et Income Private
As s et Income Private_QR
As s et Income Private_RR
25000
Won Thousands
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
-5000
Age
Private Asset Income
Asset Income Private
Entrepreneur
Operating
Land
Finance
25000
20000
Won Thousands
15000
10000
5000
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
-5000
-10000
Age
Private Savings
Urban
Residual Q
Residual R
25000
20000
Won Thousands
15000
10000
5000
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
-5000
-10000
Age
Public Transfers
Public Transfers
Inflows
Outflows
6000
5000
Won Thousands
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
-2000
-3000
Age
Private Transfers
Private
Interhous ehold
Intrahous ehold
Beques t
6000
Won Thousands
4000
2000
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
-2000
-4000
-6000
Age
4. International Comparison
• The Lifecycle Deficits
– In three countries, children and the elderly consume substantially more
than they produce.
• In Korea, young adults begin to produce as much as they consume
at age 27
• in Taiwan at age 22, in the US at age 24.
• In Korea, adults no longer produce as much as they consume at age
55
• in Taiwan at age 56, in the US at age 57.
• The span of years during which there is a lifecycle surplus is
surprisingly short in three countries – in particular, 27 years in
Korea.
• production age profiles
– similar until adults reach their early 40s.
– Between the mid 40s and late 50s, however, the income
profiles diverge.
• age-profile of consumption
– in Korea, increases continuously to late 10s, and decreases
slowly over age of 20
– that of United States during that period increases
continuously.
– The case of Taiwan is similar to Korea.
• steeper consumption profile in the US.
• Korea and Taiwan are relatively flat.
• Per capita consumption by those 65 and older was 136 % in
the US of per capita consumption of those 20-64
– 84% in Korea; 86 % in Taiwan.
– consider just non-health consumption,
– the elderly and non-elderly adults in the US had virtually identical
consumption,
– while the elderly of Korea and Taiwan had non-health consumption
equal to about 77%, 75% respectively of the non-health consumption of
adults between the ages of 20 and 64.
Lifecycle of Production and Consumption, Per Capita, Korea 2000
Consumption
Labor Income
Relative to Average Production Age
20 to 40
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
Age
Consumption by Age and Components, Korea 2000
Relative to Mean Consumption Age 20~64
1.20
1.00
0.80
Health Private
Health Public
Education Private
Education Public
Other Private
Other Public
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
0~19
20~64
Age
65+
Lifecycle Deficits, Korea
Relative to Average Production Age 20
to 40
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
Age
• The Reallocation System
• In three countries, asset reallocations put inflows to most
working ages, while public and private transfers put outflows
at the same ages,
• but in Korea asset reallocations generate inflows over mid 40s
when we estimate private asset income and savings from the
survey.
• support children are quite similar in three countries.
• Transfers dominate the reallocation system for children.
• Private intra-household transfers accounted for about 60% in
three countries.
• old age reallocation systems are quite different
– For Korea elderly asset reallocations plays very important
role  79.3% of lifecycle reallocations
71% in the US; 50.1% in Taiwan
– No Dis-savings in Korea
17.4% in the US, -0.4% in Taiwan
– Bequests amounted to 10.3% in Korea
16.8% in the US; 16.6% in Taiwan.
• In the US, public transfers are particular important.
– Private transfers to the elderly are small in the US.
• In Taiwan, Public transfers were 27.4% of total
lifecycle reallocations for the elderly
– private transfers excluding bequests were 39.1% of
lifecycle reallocations.
• In Korea, public transfers amounted to 11.1%
– private transfers, 9.6% of total reallocations to the elderly.
Components of Age Reallocation, Aggregate Values, Korea 2000
As s et Reallocation
Public Trans fers
Inter V ivos Trans fers
Beques ts
10000
8000
6000
Won Billions
4000
2000
0
-2000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
-4000
-6000
-8000
-10000
Age
Components of Age Reallocation, Means Value, Korea 2000
As s et Reallocation
Public Trans fers
Inter V ivos Trans fers
Beques ts
25000
20000
Won Thousands
15000
10000
5000
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
-5000
-10000
-15000
Age
Components of Age Reallocation, Aggregate Values, Korea 2000
Asset Reallocation_S
Public Transfers
Inter V ivos Transfers
Bequests
8000
6000
Won Billions
4000
2000
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
-2000
-4000
-6000
Age
Components of Age Reallocation, Means Value, Korea 2000
Asset Reallocation_S
Public Transfers
Inter V ivos Transfers
Bequests
14000
12000
10000
Won Thousands
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
-2000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
-4000
-6000
-8000
Age
• Sources of Support
• In three countries about 3~4% is from the earnings of children.
– Inter vivos transfers constitute 54% in Korea; close to 60% in Taiwan
and in the US.
– Public transfers constitute 29% in Korea; 37% in the US; 34% in
Taiwan.
• The finance of consumption by the elderly is different
– Work plays a similar role in three countries
– Asset reallocations and inter vivos transfers are more important in
Korea;
– asset reallocations and public transfers are more important in the US;
– Private, familial transfers are more important in Taiwan.
Finance of Consumption
Work
Asset Reallocation
Public Transfers
Inter V ivos Transfers
140
120
100
Percentage
80
42
0
54
24
60
40
38
29
20
0
-20
14
3
19
0~19
-22
65+
-40
Age
Bequests
IV. Conclusions
• Korea is now experiencing the fastest population aging in the world.
• Intergenerational Transfers in Korea experiences the transition era
– co-residence is decreasing
– dependency on the social programs expands.
• Growth also moves to a stage of slow speed.
• Thus, a study of the reallocation of resources across age groups in Korea
passing through such the transition can draw the sufficient attention.
• The development of National Transfer Accounts enables us to show the
current status of Korean intergeneration transfer and to predict the future.